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Post by kryptos2009 on Mar 10, 2010 20:27:07 GMT -5
Here is the PP Daily Thread (PPDT) data. FROM: www.allpivotpoints.com(Pivot Points calculated after close on 03-10-2010) XLF PP=15.46 R1=15.56 R2=15.65 R3=15.75 S1=15.37 S2=15.27 S3=15.18 O=15.40 H=15.56 L=15.37 C=15.47 SPY PP=114.88 R1=115.36 R2=115.75 R3=116.23 S1=114.49 S2=114.01 S3=113.62 O=114.51 H=115.28 L=114.41 C=114.97 SPG PP=80.84 R1=81.36 R2=81.95 R3=82.47 S1=80.25 S2=79.73 S3=79.14 O=81.14 H=81.43 L=80.32 C=80.77 GS PP=171.05 R1=173.23 R2=174.52 R3=176.7 S1=169.76 S2=167.58 S3=166.29 O=170.26 H=172.34 L=168.87 C=171.94 JPM PP=43.07 R1=43.34 R2=43.75 R3=44.02 S1=42.66 S2=42.39 S3=41.98 O=42.87 H=43.49 L=42.81 C=42.93 MS PP=29.7 R1=30.57 R2=31.17 R3=32.04 S1=29.10 S2=28.23 S3=27.63 O=29.22 H=30.3 L=28.83 C=29.97 C PP=3.98 R1=4.04 R2=4.13 R3=4.19 S1=3.89 S2=3.83 S3=3.74 O=3.96 H=4.07 L=3.92 C=3.96 VIX PP=18.2 R1=18.97 R2=19.37 R3=20.14 S1=17.8 S2=17.03 S3=16.63 O=18 H=18.6 L=17.43 C=18.57 FROM: www.mypivots.comUUP PP=23.63 R1=23.68 R2=23.74 R3=23.85 S1=23.57 S2=23.52 S3=23.41 O=23.67 H=23.69 L=23.58 C=23.62 FAS PP=87.57 MP=88.33 R1=89.1 MP=89.82 R2=90.54 MP=92.02 R3=93.51 MP=86.85 S1=86.13 MP=85.36 S2=84.6 MP=83.11 S3=81.63 O=86.51 H=89 L=86.03 C=87.67 FAZ PP=15.03 MP=15.15 R1=15.28 MP=15.43 R2=15.58 MP=15.85 R3=16.13 MP=14.88 S1=14.73 MP=14.60 S2=14.48 MP=14.20 S3=13.93 O=15.24 H=15.33 L=14.78 C=14.98 FROM: www.econoday.comEconomic Events & Analysis - 03/11/2010 8:30 AM ET International Trade 8:30 AM ET Jobless Claims 10:00 AM ET Quarterly Services Survey 10:30 AM ET EIA Natural Gas Report 11:00 AM ET 3-Month Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET 6-Month Bill Announcement 1:00 PM ET 30-Yr Bond Auction 4:30 PM ET Fed Balance Sheet 4:30 PM ET Money Supply
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Post by kryptos2009 on Mar 10, 2010 20:30:17 GMT -5
FROM: www.econoday.comInternational TradeReleased on 3/11/2010 8:30:00 AM For Jan, 2010 Prior Consensus Consensus Range Trade Balance Level $-40.2 B $-41.0 B $-43.0 B to $-39.0 B Market Consensus Before AnnouncementThe U.S. international trade gap in December unexpectedly ballooned to $40.2 billion from a $36.4 billion gap in November. The worsening in the trade deficit was largely due to a widening of the petroleum deficit as the nonpetroleum gap actually shrank. The good news was that exports jumped 3.3 percent in December-the eighth consecutive monthly increase. The trade gap could worsen again in January as the seasonally adjusted price of West Texas Intermediate jumped about 9 percent on a monthly basis. Jobless ClaimsReleased on 3/11/2010 8:30:00 AM For wk3/6, 2010 Prior Consensus Consensus Range New Claims - Level 469 K 460 K 450 K to 470 K Market Consensus Before AnnouncementInitial jobless claims for the week of February 27 swung lower, declining 29,000 to 469,000. There were no special factors in the week. Filings were up the prior week due to severe weather. Now many file online rather than waiting in line and being snowed in at home may have actually boosted online filings. The weekly data for February showed steep swings. The four-week average, however, fell 3,500 in the week to 470,750, a level showing no significant change from late January.
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Post by ask2lern on Mar 10, 2010 22:08:21 GMT -5
A tidbit from a blog I read...............also I can start to do the metals pivots in the evening if anyone want them them the night before let me know....................GLTA
The S&P 500 Financial sector rose once again today, making it nine up days in a row for a total rally of 6%. Since 1990, there have only been two other periods where the sector rallied for nine straight days. In each of those prior periods, the streak ended at nine days. In 1995, the index followed up the nine-day winning streak with a six-day losing streak, while in 1997, the sector declined in four out of the next six trading days. Bears would love to see similar action this time around!
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Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 10, 2010 22:24:36 GMT -5
XLF: XLF up its 9th day in a row. Since 1990, there have only been two other periods where the sector rallied for nine straight days. In each of those prior periods, the streak ended at nine days. In 1995, the index followed up the nine-day winning streak with a six-day losing streak, while in 1997, the sector declined in four out of the next six trading days. Here's an XLF chart. You might notice an 8 month trading range. Just a guess, but we are likely not at the bottom of this range. Spy is also up 9 days in a row. According to our good friend Cobra, this has only happened twice before in the past 8 years; in both instances, the market had formed a near term peak and, importantly, retraced the entire 9 day advance over the following days/weeks. In our case, that would mean a return to the 110.5 level. Kryptos, thanks for putting this thread up the night before. Most excellent. Ask, good to see your stuff up the night before. A round of exalts.
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Post by elle on Mar 11, 2010 1:28:49 GMT -5
Nice chart, maybe we'll settle at a higher level tho so people think the market is going somewhere. Looks like the big boys sell into the bagholders dance.
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Post by ask2lern on Mar 11, 2010 7:15:35 GMT -5
Morning Gang……here are the metals pivots……………I will start to post the night before....................
GOLD
R4 1193.80 Mid Point 1180.40 R3 1167.00 Mid Point 1153.60 R2 1140.20 Mid Point 1132.45 R1 1124.70 Mid Point 1119.05
Pivot Point 1113.40
Mid Point 1105.65 S1 1097.90 Mid Point 1092.25 S2 1086.60 Mid Point 1073.20 S3 1059.80 Mid Point 1046.40 S4 1033.00
SILVER
R4 19.46 Mid Point 19.09 R3 18.71 Mid Point 18.34 R2 17.96 Mid Point 17.74 R1 17.51 Mid Point 17.36
Pivot Point 17.21
Mid Point 16.99 S1 16.76 Mid Point 16.61 S2 16.46 Mid Point 16.09 S3 15.71 Mid Point 15.34 S4 14.96
………………………………………..GLTA
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Post by ask2lern on Mar 11, 2010 7:26:41 GMT -5
If silver gets anywhere 15 it is a screaming buy IMO...........I will buy at those levels for a trade........14.80 is the line in the sand on Silver....................GLTA
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Post by kryptos2009 on Mar 11, 2010 7:35:28 GMT -5
Ask,
How do you trade Silver?
What do you Buy / Sell?
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Post by doglover on Mar 11, 2010 7:53:59 GMT -5
Good Morning all. Thanks for all the Numbers and Info. This market feels really toppy to me.
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Post by ask2lern on Mar 11, 2010 7:54:53 GMT -5
Ask, How do you trade Silver? What do you Buy / Sell? I trade physical 100oz bars........................closest you can get to spot for physical.......also in a rising silver market premiums increase so in addition to the rise in spot there is also the benefit of rising premiums...................currently I can buy at spot -.20 but I am a wholesale dealer and buying at the bid.................SLV is a ETF that I have traded and there is DBS which is levered but not real liquid if things really get moving......easy to get into but can be hard to get out if silver falls fast...............small positions should not be a problem....................GLTY
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Post by kryptos2009 on Mar 11, 2010 8:08:07 GMT -5
Ask,
Thanks for the info
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Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 11, 2010 8:59:47 GMT -5
Carl - Today's range estimate is 1123-1139 for the June contract. I now think a 20-25 point break has started but I expect it to be brief and end near 1120. Look fort the market to reach 1200 by the end of May.
Oscar - taking a break this morning due to contract roll over. But he's bull.
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Post by ccash04 on Mar 11, 2010 9:05:34 GMT -5
Jobless data kinda eh.
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Post by abdogman on Mar 11, 2010 9:10:29 GMT -5
That might be enough to get things started...Good Morning All and thx for the nmbrs and info
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Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 11, 2010 9:14:38 GMT -5
Oscar - video, says DJT looks tired, NQ looks overbought and that IWM will likely retest b/o before continuing higher. He's very bull overall but sees a pause before continuing higher.
IT - going short USO at 40.5. Going long UNG below 8. Still see Spy possibly going to 116 before turning lower.
Net, the three wisemen all seem to be saying we have a few pause days ahead. That never works out.
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Post by kryptos2009 on Mar 11, 2010 9:16:25 GMT -5
XLF Pre-mkt High 15.48, now at 15.41
FAS Pre-mkt High 88.20, now at 86.90
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Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 11, 2010 9:26:58 GMT -5
Before we get started I just want to encourage everyone to chime in with any observation, however insignificant you think it might be. Sometimes these will be pieces of a puzzle that click for someone else. Big moves up or down in any equities, commodities or bonds are always noteworthy. OK, now let's go bite this bear in the butt!
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Mikey
Broker/Dealer
Posts: 581
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Post by Mikey on Mar 11, 2010 9:27:04 GMT -5
Shorted AIG at $38 in pre-market, that POS is gonna tank - will take heat to $40 but looking back at the past 15 months, $40 is strong S/R and the stochastics are reaching their most overbought levels. If you look at a 5-day chart it opened at $25.15 last Thursday. Since then it's up over 50% - time for a little pullback I reckon: stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AIG&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=15&id=p95116771207Also, sold 500 shares of VXX earlier at $25.15, still holding other half GM all and good luck today!
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Mikey
Broker/Dealer
Posts: 581
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Post by Mikey on Mar 11, 2010 9:29:39 GMT -5
Evil Speculator: Living Inside a Broken Clock
China inflation and industriasl production have accelerated more than expected. It's becoming more and more obvious (in the fairy tale .gov data world, anyway) that the taps need to be turned off. The USA budget deficit has hit a record and a 17 month drive to the abyss. Meanwhile, interest paid on that debt has been shrinking. How tight can you wind a clockfs spring before it explodes?
Europe wants to ban Naked CDS trading - you can read all about this evil in many, many posts over the last 2 years at Market Ticker. There is doubt that this will succeed without Obama support - and it is very warm and cozy in the bankerfs vest pocket.
The strikes resume in Greece, and some prognosticators believe that the country will miss their already-low GDP target. Yet the worldfs watchmen keep turning that key and the spring is getting more and more tightly coiled -and not in a good way
Get the popcorn ready, because Greenspan is scheduled to testify before the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission in April.
EQUITY
My own analysis says that yesterday was a e15Œ and the SPX slope was positive. The highest probability for todayfs bar shape is: e72Œ which means open at the HOD and close down near the LOD. The next highest probability is open near the LOD and close near the HOD. Now, wasnft that helpful? I donft think so either. BUT, the first half hour might indicate what sort of day it will be - and if it looks like range trading, then the bar is likely to be a decent size.
That says that there is a high probability of the High - Low being between 6 and 23. (each ebinf is from the label number to the next one. i.e. e6Œ means between 6 and 9). Thatfs a pretty decent size for intra-day trading given that the majority of bars open near the LOD or HOD and close near the other end.
I played EUR long overnight and put on a short ES hedge this morning. The market took me out of the EUR, but Ifm still short ES. I have put a stop on now that the ghedgeh is off.
Asia was mixed iwth Emerging in the red along with Oz, Taiwan, and S.Korea. Everything else was green - but not by much (japan was up 0.8%). Europe is red, except for Germany, Iceland, and Ireland. Germany is pretty close to flat. Breadth for the red is between 60 - 80% if compnaies down.
The DAX recovered off of a dip at the open. 50/50 on the green / red sectors. Those in the green are strongly so. Those in the red - the breadth is evenly divided. This looks like a market that wants to go higher - but is either afraid to (or is seeing distribution into the demand).
The ES sold off as Asia fully opened and the China news came out, but has formed what looks like a failed cup and handle - the handle failed to launch (sorry Matthew and Jessica but this smells better than that movie). Pivots:
R2: 1154 = same deal as yesterday. Looks like a little TA wishful thinking to see the Jan high get taken out. Today is jobless claims and trade balance. I donft think that this is rocket-launch news. Maybe if some new liquidity program is announced - but with the implications of China needing to cool offc.. R1: 1150 = Same deal as R2. The mood is not euphoric. There is some fear. What would you feel if your hand was in a buried candly jar and you couldnft let go of the loot? What if something was coming up behind to whack you and you still couldnft let go to escape? Welcome to the IB world right now. Neutral: 1144 = This is the current level of resistance that was support before the Asia-induced sell off at 8 - 10 PM EST last night. S1: 1140 = This provided support in the small sell off. It would likely do so again on dips. Overnight, though, does not give an indication of the degree of support. BUT, this level has been both support and resistance over the last few days. S2: 1133.75 = This was the area of support before the ramp on Tuesday that began at 8AMish (post-data?).
DATA
8:30 AM = Trade balance (IF this has shrunk then be aware that it gives FCBs less USD to put into treasuries and shows strengthening pressure on the USD)
Jobless claims = Pinocchio would be proud. 460K expected vs 469K prior. How can they be that precise? Itfs easy when you have a birth /death model.
Noon = Feds Flow of Funds. This should be good for the doom and gloom crowd.
Stay nimble. Did you know that the e24Œ , e15Œ bars of the last two days has only occured once before, since April 1982? I wonder if it means anythingc.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 11, 2010 9:30:18 GMT -5
Not to rag on the guys at IT but after calling BIDU a bloated pig for a week he went short last night at 550. Then he said he would sell on a $5 drop. That's not even 1%.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 11, 2010 9:32:32 GMT -5
Vxx - I assume you mean 24.15?
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Post by merrillstanley on Mar 11, 2010 9:32:39 GMT -5
<growl>
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Post by merrillstanley on Mar 11, 2010 9:34:29 GMT -5
Brazilian real estate developer Gafisa SA (GFA) is planning to sell at least 74 million shares through a primary offering on the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange, BMFBovespa, the company said Thursday in a statement. The offer could raise around 1.05 billion Brazilian reals ($595 million) based on Gafisa's closing price of BRL14.25 on Wednesday. The company, which could offer an extra lot of shares if there is sufficient demand, will sell its shares in Brazil and to international investors in the form of American depositary receipts, or ADRs. Investors can reserve shares from March 18 through March 22. Trading is expected to begin March 24. Itau BBA, JP Morgan, Banco Votorantim and UBS will coordinate the offer. "A follow-on offering will afford us the opportunity to comfortably fund our business objectives over the next few years while enhancing our current capital structure and merger and acquisitions opportunities," the company said in a statement.
-By Rogerio Jelmayer, Dow Jones Newswires; 55-11-2847-4521; rogerio.jelmayer@dowjones.com
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Post by ask2lern on Mar 11, 2010 9:34:54 GMT -5
Shorted AIG at $38 in pre-market, that POS is gonna tank - will take heat to $40 but looking back at the past 15 months, $40 is strong S/R and the stochastics are reaching their most overbought levels. If you look at a 5-day chart it opened at $25.15 last Thursday. Since then it's up over 50% - time for a little pullback I reckon: stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AIG&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=15&id=p95116771207Also, sold 500 shares of VXX earlier at $25.15, still holding other half GM all and good luck today! Nice trade on VXX mikey................I am holding 3K @ 23.83......GL
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Post by jack on Mar 11, 2010 9:36:52 GMT -5
Before we get started I just want to encourage everyone to chime in with any observation, however insignificant you think it might be. Sometimes these will be pieces of a puzzle that click for someone else. Big moves up or down in any equities, commodities or bonds are always noteworthy. OK, now let's go bite this bear in the butt! OBSERVATION: Cash isn't here will she ever come back?
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Post by abdogman on Mar 11, 2010 9:37:37 GMT -5
Xlf now up past pivot at 0937est price 15.465
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Post by merrillstanley on Mar 11, 2010 9:38:51 GMT -5
Sliding stock futures suggest a lower start is in order for the session. The pressure comes after stocks in the broader market staged gains in eight of the past nine sessions, netting nearly 4% in gains during that time. The advances have the S&P 500 sitting just below its 52-week high, which was set in mid-January and represents a pivotal source of near-term resistance. Adding to this morning's selling interest is the recent rise in the Dollar Index, which had been flat for most of the morning, but recently made its way to a slight gain. The latest dose of economic data has done little to lift the spirits of premarket participants; initial weekly jobless claims were in-line with expectations and continuing claims totals were greater than expected. Economic data out of China showed a rapid rise in consumer and producer prices, which has fed concerns about tighter monetary policy in the country that many expect will lead the global economy out of recession.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 11, 2010 9:39:02 GMT -5
FXI With talk of China tightening, let's look at the chart. To me, looks like its hitting good R from the Nov trend line.
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Post by ask2lern on Mar 11, 2010 9:40:41 GMT -5
VIX just went above R1
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Post by abdogman on Mar 11, 2010 9:41:09 GMT -5
Xlf 3 mil shares at 0938 push price to 15.50
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