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Post by abdogman on Mar 11, 2010 15:07:39 GMT -5
xlf at 15.53 on vol
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Post by abdogman on Mar 11, 2010 15:09:28 GMT -5
michael a is here
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Post by abdogman on Mar 11, 2010 15:13:24 GMT -5
Xlf vol in and price just below R1
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Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 11, 2010 15:17:12 GMT -5
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Post by abdogman on Mar 11, 2010 15:22:11 GMT -5
Xlf vol nearly 3 m shares in last 12 min still not thru R1
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Post by ccash04 on Mar 11, 2010 15:23:04 GMT -5
Fade the close and open tomorrow if it opens in the green?
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Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 11, 2010 15:32:03 GMT -5
Where we close now becomes very important. In the final hour we have so far had a half dollar move in Spy - that's a long candle. Should we close below 115, it will be a high wick candle with the body in the bottom 1/4, i.e., a hourly reversal candle. You would at least expect follow through to the downside in the morning as a result. Of course, finishing the day at the hod with a long green candle is max bullish as volume is usually highest at the close. Vix vs Vxx - I think Mikey had a hex on it. Now that's he out and flat, Vxx is up 1% and Vix is down 1.5%.
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Post by abdogman on Mar 11, 2010 15:32:48 GMT -5
Xlf last minute 2.6 mil shares at 15.555
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Post by ccash04 on Mar 11, 2010 15:36:54 GMT -5
I agree w/that UK..
I don't understand the VXX what does it use to track the VIX? Options? Swaps? I think its like the TBT which I despise. That 20+ swap never quite works the way it should and so I just play the TLT when it comes to treasuries.
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Post by ask2lern on Mar 11, 2010 15:40:19 GMT -5
I agree w/that UK.. I don't understand the VXX what does it use to track the VIX? Options? Swaps? I think its like the TBT which I despise. That 20+ swap never quite works the way it should and so I just play the TLT when it comes to treasuries. I think it because of the forward/Front month issue. Here is how it is described: VXX The index offers exposure to a daily rolling long position in the first and second month VIX futures contracts and reflects the implied volatility of the S&P 500 index at various points along the volatility forward curve. The index futures roll continuously throughout each month from the first month VIX futures contract into the second month VIX futures contract. ............................you guys probably knew this though.......GL
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Post by ccash04 on Mar 11, 2010 15:43:11 GMT -5
Yeah makes sense so there has to be some sort of contango between front and back months. Or does it act like this when the front months contract is getting rolled to the next.
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Post by abdogman on Mar 11, 2010 15:46:11 GMT -5
Xlf thru R1 on volume at 15.57
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Post by merrillstanley on Mar 11, 2010 15:56:59 GMT -5
damn Carl is good
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Post by abdogman on Mar 11, 2010 15:59:35 GMT -5
Thx all for input....gotta go ... see ya in am
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Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 11, 2010 16:01:51 GMT -5
Vxx - there has been divergence in performance over time. From Jan 09 to Spt 09, they tracked each other well enough. Since then, Vxx has underperformed Vix by a wide margin; they go down step for step but rises in Vix are more muted in Vxx, so it gets eaten up over time. You can see that Vix started making more volatile moves starting in Sept 09 and that seems to be the cause of the tracking error.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 11, 2010 16:05:54 GMT -5
Spy and Xlf make it 10 in a row. First time since Moses, apparently.
Go long.
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Post by elle on Mar 11, 2010 16:21:35 GMT -5
Have Matt, the painter, here - taking all my time. Interesting close.
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Mikey
Broker/Dealer
Posts: 581
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Post by Mikey on Mar 11, 2010 16:22:36 GMT -5
Ugh...what a disappointment for gloom & doom Thursday. I guess the economy is better than it ever has been for us to have 10 positive sessions in a row...right?
I'm not bitter - at least today - capitulation meter is at 8.9/10. Left my last 20-25% of my 401K in the Small Cap fund, just in case they decide to take 'er up for one last ride.
I was in meetings all afternoon but I assume they killed the dollar, bid up GS/SPG, the usual deal. All I know after briefly scanning my trading acct was that it was a good move to take profits on VXX while I could (like DRV she's a fickle bitch) and also the AIG short worked out well. Up 4% today and 10% over the past two. Don't want to even know what my 5 and 15 day stats are though...
GN all and seeya tomorrow
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Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 11, 2010 16:30:35 GMT -5
I just heard this described as the Jason Bourne market where everyone is keeping an eye out for the exits. Hilarious.
Hang in there Mikey. If you didn't feel like capitulating, we wouldn't be close to the turn.
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Post by elle on Mar 11, 2010 16:32:32 GMT -5
I agree, Mikey, you're the meter man.
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Post by elle on Mar 11, 2010 16:35:37 GMT -5
Have I told you guys how unbelievably, incredibly happy I am that for ONCE I am not in SRS this week. (except getting that old buying itch......no, no I'll fight it............I can do this - except if Meter Mike gets to 10, then I'll buy)
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Post by deadmoney95 on Mar 11, 2010 16:48:13 GMT -5
I'm going to further speculate that dogs like Fas more than Faz. Dogs are happy and think everyday is special. Fas is like lying in the sun; Faz is like a winter in Seattle. On days (indeed weeks) like this, you are so right, UK. So right. At least for this dog.
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Post by billorites on Mar 11, 2010 17:04:26 GMT -5
I just heard this described as the Jason Bourne market where everyone is keeping an eye out for the exits. I just tightened up all my stops so I can sleep tonight. A long, gentle rise such as we've seen since February probably will meet an unhappy end. Perhaps I'll keep a gun under the pillow too...
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Post by elle on Mar 11, 2010 17:05:35 GMT -5
DM, very very pleased, congrats on your FAS trade
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Post by deadmoney95 on Mar 11, 2010 17:16:52 GMT -5
Thanks, Elle. Not so much "trading" as bag-holding. But I'll take it. Thanks, everyone. See ya' tomorrow.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 11, 2010 17:43:06 GMT -5
Have I told you guys how unbelievably, incredibly happy I am that for ONCE I am not in SRS this week. (except getting that old buying itch......no, no I'll fight it............I can do this - except if Meter Mike gets to 10, then I'll buy) You seem to do well with SRS. Maybe time to buy and knock this rally off it's feet.
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Post by ask2lern on Mar 11, 2010 20:18:56 GMT -5
[quote author=ukarlewitz board=exchange thread=942 post=12842 time=1268347386[/quote] Maybe time to buy and knock this rally off it's feet. [/quote] You really think thats possible? ....LOL
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