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Post by jack on Apr 2, 2010 12:50:43 GMT -5
Ray,
Some guy from Blackrock said this morning on Bloomie's Radio that they expect Mr Market to go up another 3-5% from here can't remember his name how's that for establishing credibility(?)
(It wasn't Bob Dahl, VP)
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Post by ukarlewitz on Apr 2, 2010 12:51:51 GMT -5
I agree, bears get crushed. More. And I also agree that the move down will be a maximum surprise. I imagine it starts, like everything recently, with a sharp overnight move that traps longs and trips stops.
90% of stocks in the S&P 500 are currently trading above their 50-day moving averages. This is at the top end of the indicator's range over the last year.
- In the Industrials sector, 100% of stocks are trading above their 50-days. - The Financial sector isn't far behind with a reading of 97%. - Materials, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, and Technology are all above 90% as well. - Health Care, Utilities, Energy, and Telecom have the lowest readings, but even these sectors are all at or above 75%.
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Post by ccash04 on Apr 2, 2010 12:52:36 GMT -5
"- bond funds have received record inflows as investors seek yield. Short term, perhaps, they exit bond funds and plow into equities. Equities up, bonds down. Perhaps. I think Spy does not have much more room to run - perhaps another 3-4% to 122 - but I suppose it could go further." Well, an additional rise of 3-4% for the SPX is crushing to the bears. The problem is this in my view. The more the market pressures the bears and crushes their positions the worse it will be for the market. With bears eliminated through capitulation and margin calls, the market will hit air pockets with gut-wrenching drops. The VIX will shoot up by 5 to 10% per day and in my opinion this kind of price action is harmful to investors and the economy. But unfortunately the quant computers are in charge and they push prices to benefit their masters and care less for the investor or the economy. Let's hope sanity reigns. Below is SPX Bullish %: I completely agree, I find it interesting how the VIX has stayed so low for so long. There's a complacency in this market and I find it very hard not to buy every option w/vix so low. But again I am probably wrong and its just going to 1300 in the next month. Just seems like we are setting up for big drop.
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Post by ccash04 on Apr 2, 2010 12:54:26 GMT -5
I agree, bears get crushed. More. And I also agree that the move down will be a maximum surprise. I imagine it starts, like everything recently, with a sharp overnight move that traps longs and trips stops. 90% of stocks in the S&P 500 are currently trading above their 50-day moving averages. This is at the top end of the indicator's range over the last year. - In the Industrials sector, 100% of stocks are trading above their 50-days. - The Financial sector isn't far behind with a reading of 97%. - Materials, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, and Technology are all above 90% as well. - Health Care, Utilities, Energy, and Telecom have the lowest readings, but even these sectors are all at or above 75%. APWR is helping bring that number down
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Post by ukarlewitz on Apr 2, 2010 16:39:43 GMT -5
PCX:
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Post by Dualism on Apr 2, 2010 17:20:49 GMT -5
As of March 31, 2010 Courtesy of alphatrends.net
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Post by Dualism on Apr 2, 2010 18:02:00 GMT -5
Fund proxies (ETFs & ETNs) that follow some futures instrument have generally been terrible long-term holds. Note USO which is a proxy for crude oil.
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Post by Dualism on Apr 2, 2010 19:12:12 GMT -5
Here is a comparison of VXX, a proxy ETN, to the VIX. www.ipathetn.com/VXX-overview.jspVXX "offers exposure to a daily rolling long position in the first and second month VIX futures contracts and reflects the implied volatility of the S&P 500® Index at various points along the volatility forward curve. The index futures roll continuously throughout each month from the first month VIX futures contract into the second month VIX futures contract." I believe that all the buying and selling or the VIX futures contracts with unavoidable losses in spreads, price slippage, systemic front-running, fees and charges bleed these ETNs. Therefore, VXX should generally be played on the short side when good short entries avail themselves.
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Post by jack on Apr 2, 2010 19:23:16 GMT -5
Uk & Ray,
Thanks for sharing those charts. Me likey...esp the PCX cup&handle albeit torturous for arthritic hands (which TG I don't have).
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Post by ukarlewitz on Apr 2, 2010 19:32:26 GMT -5
Umm, yes, I can offer first hand experience on that one. Believe me, my intended stay in Vxx was to be short.
I find that there is always one more very key thing I need to learn.
On a happier note, I think that there is evidence that Vix/Vxx will soon be moving higher.
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Post by jack on Apr 2, 2010 19:40:51 GMT -5
Umm, yes, I can offer first hand experience on that one. Believe me, my intended stay in Vxx was to be short. I find that there is always one more very key thing I need to learn. On a happier note, I think that there is evidence that Vix/Vxx will soon be moving higher. "Believe me, my intended stay in Vxx was to be short." Man...if I had the price of a trade for everytime I said that and wound up holding the bag for weeks...months...even years - LOL!!!
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Post by triggerhappy on Apr 2, 2010 22:05:55 GMT -5
It really goes without saying that UK and Dual are making great sense (huge fan :-)). But with a market that is non-sensical, when is the time for shorts to strike (or for longs to step aside)? Do we need a major sovereign debt issue to rear it's ugly head (clearly not Greece)? Do this quarter's earnings suck wind (I doubt it)? What is the catalyst? Because without one, this market goes a lot higher - nose bleed higher. I think just about everyone wants to get back to business as usual - SP1500 and going higher. Timing is everything, as we all get shown every time we f-up a trade... How does this play out, this quarter, next, year end?
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Post by ukarlewitz on Apr 4, 2010 21:38:57 GMT -5
110 years of history on the DJI. We're in a 70 year channel.
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Post by jack on Apr 4, 2010 22:05:19 GMT -5
110 years of history on the DJI. We're in a 70 year channel. Hmmmmm...the notion of regressing to the mean even within that channel scares ther living crap outa me.
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Post by doglover on Apr 5, 2010 6:51:38 GMT -5
Umm, yes, I can offer first hand experience on that one. Believe me, my intended stay in Vxx was to be short. I find that there is always one more very key thing I need to learn. On a happier note, I think that there is evidence that Vix/Vxx will soon be moving higher. Same here Ukarl. Unfortunately i did not understand how this trades. Thanks also to Dual for providing the information and chart.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Apr 5, 2010 19:08:45 GMT -5
Put/call is not just bullish, it has not been more bullish (using MAs) since January 2004. That year is my reference point for this year, given some striking similarities. In any case, if you are bullish then you are in good company. And if you are a contrarian, you know what that means.
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Post by kingdisco on Apr 5, 2010 19:14:39 GMT -5
we really need to get Will Farrell to narrate charts and chats. ROFL
or maybe James Earl Jones
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Post by Dualism on Apr 5, 2010 20:11:47 GMT -5
Today the T-bond futures closed below the 114.50 support level mentioned a few times before. 113.50 is the next level of support. 112.50 level is the titanic iceberg.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Apr 5, 2010 21:13:03 GMT -5
TNX (10y UST): Closed above 200 weekly ma today for first time since Oct 2007. You can see a neckline for an inverse H&S. Apparently, the target for this is about 6%. In any case, if the b/o hold, expect 4.3% and then 4.7% as the next R's.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Apr 5, 2010 21:42:53 GMT -5
Haven't been this bullish since when?
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Post by Dualism on Apr 5, 2010 22:20:15 GMT -5
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Post by benvestor on Apr 6, 2010 15:58:58 GMT -5
Notice that the calls got extremely bullish right near the top in 08'
I don't think we are that overvalued yet.. I am just maintaining some contrariness
SPX 1240!! lol
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Post by Dualism on Apr 6, 2010 15:59:22 GMT -5
The McClellan Oscillator closed lower today by 1.98 points.
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Post by ccash04 on Apr 6, 2010 18:21:10 GMT -5
TNX (10y UST): Closed above 200 weekly ma today for first time since Oct 2007. You can see a neckline for an inverse H&S. Apparently, the target for this is about 6%. In any case, if the b/o hold, expect 4.3% and then 4.7% as the next R's. If it gets to 4.3% quickly and I think momo will carry it through.. Today it closed below the 200-weekly MA but I think its just setting up for a big sell-off if the auction doesn't do well. Does anyone think that these next two auctions will go well w/o the Fed stepping in and buying a lot?
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Post by Dualism on Apr 6, 2010 19:15:11 GMT -5
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Post by cosmic on Apr 6, 2010 19:26:15 GMT -5
I need to get me some Greek bonds. Woo!
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Post by kingdisco on Apr 6, 2010 19:34:10 GMT -5
I need to get me some Greek bonds. Woo! i hear the bonds come smothered in zitziki sauce yum do we have the 30 year auction like once a month?
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Post by kingdisco on Apr 6, 2010 20:55:30 GMT -5
i've got to say that sharp spike in the greek bond yield.... is not very comforting.... at all.
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Post by jack on Apr 6, 2010 20:57:12 GMT -5
You gonna say "Hey!" to blue for the Gang, Kingfisher?
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Post by kingdisco on Apr 6, 2010 21:17:08 GMT -5
You gonna say "Hey!" to blue for the Gang, Kingfisher? will do in the morning i'm off ta bed. i email her reguarly i'll pass along the words!!! jack says that "if you don't come around blue the Gang may have to Break Legs. Don't make them get the Kingfish."
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