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Post by jack on Mar 29, 2010 17:08:51 GMT -5
Depends on which way they getcha Jack. Might be best to bring the younger generation dialects in... PWNflationIn terms of the Gubmint taking dominance over the people it was sworn to serve that's the best one yet: www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=pwnSo let it be said - so let it be done (at least until November 2010 that is.)
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Post by kingdisco on Mar 30, 2010 8:16:16 GMT -5
Since everyone seems to love this thread. temporarily stickied until further zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
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Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 30, 2010 8:28:34 GMT -5
Since everyone seems to love this thread. temporarily stickied until further zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz I have an account that will kill any stock or currency you are hoping will go higher. Don't make me use it. It now holds Vxx and DDSS.
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Post by jack on Mar 30, 2010 8:31:12 GMT -5
Since everyone seems to love this thread. temporarily stickied until further zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz I have an account that will kill any stock or currency you are hoping will go higher. Don't make me use it. It now holds Vxx and DDSS. I would greatly appreciate it Uk if you would kindly exit from my trading acct - ALL my stuff is crapping out too! LOL!!!
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Post by Dualism on Mar 30, 2010 17:15:53 GMT -5
March 30, 2010 A review of the NYSE McClellan Oscillator is worthwhile today, in my opinion. Note that in the first week of March when NYMO hit a reading of +75 it has moved lower in jagged formation to carve out 4 lower highs and lows. IOW, breadth momentum has been deteriorating over the last 3 weeks. If the recent past market corrections over the last year is any indication, it is likely that NYMO will fall as low as -50 to -75 before moving back up again. Keep in mind NYMO is temporally a leading indicator. So it will hit its bottom days before stock prices will. Mind you this is a process and consumes days to weeks to complete. In my assessment tomorrow is going to be very important for the bulls. A poor breadth outcome on Wednesday will push NYMO below -20, reinforcing the weakening picture for the market. Another possibility is that NYMO may linger around the 0-line (-25 to +25) for many days before heading lower or even possibly higher. So it is sensible we look for other clues to make a more predictive conclusion.
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Post by Dualism on Mar 30, 2010 17:24:27 GMT -5
For a different view of the market breadth, let's look at the 52-week new highs and new lows. Furthermore, let's also view the same data as a ratio. Some may find this as more revealing.
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Post by Dualism on Mar 30, 2010 17:40:12 GMT -5
Lastly, let's look at 2 major US indices. The funkiest one that has not made much sense during this very strong bull run is the DJ Utility Average. Note the 50day and 200day sma's will be crossing soon. Below that I will also post DJ Transportation Average. Ukarl has alluded to this average a few times as one where we may be able to draw predictive clues from.
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Post by cosmic on Mar 30, 2010 21:01:00 GMT -5
Averages up but profit taking everywhere. Hmmmmmmm.
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Post by Rich on Mar 30, 2010 23:22:02 GMT -5
Hey, I found a new box of toys at freestockcharts. All kinds of good stuff adv/dec, McC oscillator, ......is it....xmas?
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Post by brosin on Mar 30, 2010 23:49:23 GMT -5
I was looking all over for this thread! Ha you should've seen me.
A great sticky for sure.
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Post by brosin on Mar 30, 2010 23:50:51 GMT -5
Averages up but profit taking everywhere. Hmmmmmmm. Can I get a 2nd name "Vampire Squid?"
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Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 31, 2010 11:26:31 GMT -5
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Post by Dualism on Mar 31, 2010 16:12:16 GMT -5
This market is deteriorating at an accelerated pace.
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Post by Dualism on Mar 31, 2010 16:17:57 GMT -5
DJ Utility Average 50day and 200day sma are going to cross tomorrow. And a new look at the 52week new highs minus new lows:
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Post by elle on Mar 31, 2010 18:07:59 GMT -5
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Post by cosmic on Mar 31, 2010 18:13:27 GMT -5
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Post by triggerhappy on Mar 31, 2010 22:02:57 GMT -5
Is it time to jump out of a first floor window? Done! Just kidding. Let's burn those longs!!!!
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Post by triggerhappy on Mar 31, 2010 22:05:06 GMT -5
Is it time to build a little birdhouse in our soul? Care of "They Might Be Giants". HA!
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Post by benvestor on Mar 31, 2010 23:59:40 GMT -5
I know what to do. I am now buying puts on my puts.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Apr 1, 2010 10:05:20 GMT -5
EEM - looking a little extended here, imo: IWM - rolling over (macd and vol divergence with price):
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Post by ukarlewitz on Apr 1, 2010 16:03:46 GMT -5
Construction spending: Latest data is the little bit at the end. This, after all the incentives, etc. The private side is 60% below the peak. Not sure there's a lot of 'real economy' pressures on rates right now. Mr Market is certainly discounting some future growth!
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Post by elle on Apr 1, 2010 18:48:13 GMT -5
DDSS - alternating close above/below 20
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Post by Dualism on Apr 2, 2010 11:03:55 GMT -5
30 minute chart of ES spanning over 2 days. The initial reaction of the SPX futures is positive to the paryroll figures.
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Post by Dualism on Apr 2, 2010 11:16:46 GMT -5
Below is a 90-min chart of 30-yr T-bond futures. It is now a foregone conclusion that soon it will be testing the 114.50 level.
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Post by Dualism on Apr 2, 2010 11:21:37 GMT -5
Considering that the SPX futures closed higher by 4.50 points after the release of the payroll numbers coupled with the chart of NYMO below, it does not look good for bears on Monday.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Apr 2, 2010 11:23:22 GMT -5
UST - How do you think this plays out over time? And what are the effects on the DX and Spx?
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Post by Dualism on Apr 2, 2010 11:39:46 GMT -5
UST - How do you think this plays out over time? And what are the effects on the DX and Spx? I think the influence of the DX is very hard to assess. The Yuan is becoming increasingly an important factor and there is much uncertainty with it. Below is a 90-min chart of DX. But if the T-bond futures break below 112.50, I think it will be very bearish for stocks. Forced portfolio reallocation will take place at that point. With rising rates, conservative portfolios will sell stocks and move capital into bonds as a disciplined reallocation. Weekly chart of T-bonds:
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Post by ukarlewitz on Apr 2, 2010 12:25:05 GMT -5
Options also excessively bullish (i.e, bearish): There has to be a flush in equities shortly, it seems to me. Maybe not a big flush, but at least a scare. I have no idea what will happen next, but here is one scenario: - bond yields spike higher soon. The government's program to hold rates down through purchases has expired. New bond supply will push prices lower and rates higher. - bond funds have received record inflows as investors seek yield. Short term, perhaps, they exit bond funds and plow into equities. Equities up, bonds down. Perhaps. I think Spy does not have much more room to run - perhaps another 3-4% to 122 - but I suppose it could go further. - higher rates is obviously bad, longer term, for equities as the cost of borrowing goes up and investment therefore goes down. Everyone who is over indebted will get pinched even more (bad for consumption). The non-recovery in real estate will suffer a set back just as the moratorium on mortgages expires. Therefore, I think the government will want to keep rates low and to do so will have to initiate another round of quantitative easing. Thus, look for QE2. - The dollar should likely move higher with higher rates. Not necessarily next week but over the next few months. The euro and the yen look very weak in comparison. I agree that EM currencies like the yuan/RMB will outperform (look for realignment with Ringgit, etc). I'm probably going to be totally wrong.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Apr 2, 2010 12:40:12 GMT -5
Monday of course is Never Ending Bullish Monday. A bullish day will seal the jobs report as positive (despite coming below the revised lower estimates). Everyone will be long and anyone holding Vxx will take step closer to become the next unibomber. That's the puke on the keyboard moment to go short.
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Post by Dualism on Apr 2, 2010 12:41:00 GMT -5
"- bond funds have received record inflows as investors seek yield. Short term, perhaps, they exit bond funds and plow into equities. Equities up, bonds down. Perhaps. I think Spy does not have much more room to run - perhaps another 3-4% to 122 - but I suppose it could go further." Well, an additional rise of 3-4% for the SPX is crushing to the bears. The problem is this in my view. The more the market pressures the bears and crushes their positions the worse it will be for the market. With bears eliminated through capitulation and margin calls, the market will hit air pockets with gut-wrenching drops. The VIX will shoot up by 5 to 10% per day and in my opinion this kind of price action is harmful to investors and the economy. But unfortunately the quant computers are in charge and they push prices to benefit their masters and care less for the investor or the economy. Let's hope sanity reigns. Below is SPX Bullish %:
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