|
Post by Dualism on Mar 10, 2010 22:22:25 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by cosmic on Mar 10, 2010 22:48:17 GMT -5
Defensives sold off to trap baggies
|
|
|
Post by torrentio1 on Mar 10, 2010 23:17:43 GMT -5
Anticipation of rising interest rates?
|
|
|
Post by Dualism on Mar 10, 2010 23:42:39 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by torrentio1 on Mar 10, 2010 23:51:12 GMT -5
-add to that the uncertainty surrounding the cap and trade crap being pushed by big GOV... FYI -the components: TICKER | COMPANY | SUBSECTOR | WEIGHT % | FPL | FPL Group Inc. | Conventional Electricity | 10.01 | EXC | Exelon Corp. | Conventional Electricity | 9.62 | ED | Consolidated Edison Inc. | Conventional Electricity | 9.33 | PCG | PG&E Corp. | Conventional Electricity | 9.16 | FE | FirstEnergy Corp. | Conventional Electricity | 8.48 | D | Dominion Resources Inc. (Virginia) | Conventional Electricity | 8.40 | AEP | American Electric Power Co. Inc. | Conventional Electricity | 7.28 | EIX | Edison International | Conventional Electricity | 7.27 | SO | Southern Co. | Conventional Electricity | 6.90 | PEG | Public Service Enterprise Group Inc. | Conventional Electricity | 6.51 | WMB | Williams Cos. | Pipelines | 4.84 | DUK | Duke Energy Corp. | Multiutilities | 3.51 | NI | NiSource Inc. | Gas Distribution | 3.32 | CNP | CenterPoint Energy Inc. | Multiutilities | 3.01 | AES | AES Corp. | Conventional Electricity | 2.40 |
|
|
|
Post by Dualism on Mar 12, 2010 18:03:23 GMT -5
McClellan Oscillator is signaling caution. It dropped 9 points to a reading of 51, even though the breadth was slightly in advancers favor today. This is the first strong warning signal displayed by the oscillator in the last 3 weeks.
|
|
|
Post by torrentio1 on Mar 12, 2010 18:19:30 GMT -5
How does VIX @ 12.50ish level sound? My revised target. Will evaluate over weekend...
|
|
|
Post by trading4dough on Mar 12, 2010 18:27:13 GMT -5
Look at the TRAN chart
WOW
Phoook me
|
|
|
Post by Dualism on Mar 12, 2010 18:30:33 GMT -5
How does VIX @ 12.50ish level sound? My revised target. Will evaluate over weekend... It will likely go under 15 and maybe even as low as 10 this year. But it will have sharp rallies along the way. Recall in January it shot up from under 17 to 29 in about two weeks time.
|
|
|
Post by Dualism on Mar 12, 2010 18:33:30 GMT -5
Look at the TRAN chart WOW Phoook me But we also have the utilities.
|
|
|
Post by trading4dough on Mar 12, 2010 18:36:11 GMT -5
Same for Rut and IYR
You see what we are headed right to by the week after OPEX
|
|
|
Post by torrentio1 on Mar 12, 2010 18:39:57 GMT -5
How does VIX @ 12.50ish level sound? My revised target. Will evaluate over weekend... It will likely go under 15 and maybe even as low as 10 this year. But it will have sharp rallies along the way. Recall in January it shot up from under 17 to 29 in about two weeks time. YES -scary... We could be on a 'cusp' right now. As many say, Monday may give a clue...
|
|
|
Post by trading4dough on Mar 12, 2010 18:39:58 GMT -5
Tap them trendlines and move up
Watch it will be timed with XLF $15.40
|
|
|
Post by doglover on Mar 12, 2010 18:48:02 GMT -5
I have always heard that if Utilities are not participating then use caution. Is this true..just trying to learn.
|
|
|
Post by torrentio1 on Mar 12, 2010 18:53:47 GMT -5
Look at the TRAN chart WOW Phoook me Looking at the Transports Weekly Chart they are in a 'vacuum' area -I see plenty of room for them to run... My 1st target is the 4450ish level, 2nd target the 4550ish level. From what I see and looking at the AMEX Airline Index Weekly Chart one could surmise it will be Airlines contributing heavily to this move... As such, I look for the Airline Index make a weekly breakout of the 38.50ish level to confirm the move higher is coming...
|
|
|
Post by timber on Mar 12, 2010 18:58:06 GMT -5
thanks torr illl look at airlines....i forgot about those
|
|
|
Post by doglover on Mar 12, 2010 19:03:35 GMT -5
Torrentio. I have traded JBLU in the past do you have any thoughts on this.
|
|
|
Post by Dualism on Mar 12, 2010 19:10:54 GMT -5
Same for Rut and IYR You see what we are headed right to by the week after OPEX Yes, 650.
|
|
|
Post by torrentio1 on Mar 12, 2010 19:28:58 GMT -5
Torrentio. I have traded JBLU in the past do you have any thoughts on this. As far as Airlines -right now I like: ALK CAL DAL UAUA LCC I will revive my Yahoo FAS MB airline thread here in Fastopia this weekend and include thoughts on Jet Blue. Meanwhile, my initial thoughts looking at the JBLU Weekly Chart is not much upside -it would be risky to play her UNTIL she breaks out from the heavy resistance above... I will give you more depth this weekend. ;D
|
|
|
Post by doglover on Mar 12, 2010 19:31:48 GMT -5
Torrentio. I have traded JBLU in the past do you have any thoughts on this. As far as Airlines -right now I like: ALK CAL DAL UAUA LCC I will revive my Yahoo FAS MB airline thread here in Fastopia this weekend and include thoughts on Jet Blue. Meanwhile, my initial thoughts looking at the JBLU Weekly Chart is not much upside -it would be risky to play her UNTIL she breaks out from the heavy resistance above... I will give you more depth this weekend. ;D Thank You Torrentio. ;D ;D
|
|
|
Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 12, 2010 20:55:03 GMT -5
McClellan Oscillator is signaling caution. It dropped 9 points to a reading of 51, even though the breadth was slightly in advancers favor today. This is the first strong warning signal displayed by the oscillator in the last 3 weeks. I like it. One more piece of the puzzle fitting together.
|
|
|
Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 12, 2010 21:06:15 GMT -5
The bullish view is that riskier sectors lead in market rallies. You can see from the below that all defensive sectors underperformed in the past month, not just utilities. Banks led. Utilities and other defensives outperform at market tops.
|
|
|
Post by Dualism on Mar 15, 2010 16:35:16 GMT -5
The Summation Index is slowing up big time.
|
|
|
Post by maxi on Mar 15, 2010 16:42:21 GMT -5
The Summation Index is slowing up big time. Dual could u expound on this? what does the summation index sum up for instance? It is up 30 so that is what ? very high? I appreciate any time u could spend on this topic...
|
|
|
Post by Dualism on Mar 15, 2010 16:52:57 GMT -5
Maxi,
Well, the Oscillator dropped to a reading of 30 as Ukarl reported.
The Oscillator is a leading indicator. And it does a pretty good job of predicting the immediate market trend.
The Summation Index is a running sum of the Oscillator. If and when the Oscillator drops below 0, the Summation Index will change direction.
As you can see the SI moves solidly in one direction for a period of time. If it reverses direction, the bears will definitely have the upper hand.
At this point the bulls have nearly lost gusto whether they know it or not.
|
|
|
Post by maxi on Mar 15, 2010 20:14:22 GMT -5
Thank you Dual. You give good explanation! I really want to wait for some sell off to buy anything ... And those indicators, now that I understand, look like it should be soon.
|
|
|
Post by Dualism on Mar 17, 2010 10:33:59 GMT -5
T-bond futures, June contract -- knocking on resistance line. When did the memo go out that when bonds rise, it is somehow bullish for stocks? Because I missed it.
|
|
|
Post by brosin on Mar 17, 2010 10:40:36 GMT -5
T-bond futures, June contract -- knocking on resistance line. When did the memo go out that when bonds rise, it is somehow bullish for stocks? Because I missed it. I think it is clear to all of us that the market is not acting "rationally" at the present time. But I think it works both for the up moves and down moves alike where they overshoot in both directions. In bull markets, things can seem overbought forever.
|
|
|
Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 17, 2010 11:35:19 GMT -5
T-bond futures, June contract -- knocking on resistance line. When did the memo go out that when bonds rise, it is somehow bullish for stocks? Because I missed it. Aug-Oct 2007 they rose together. Equities then flinched and started their long fall while bonds rose further. It was a good leading indicator of trouble at that time.
|
|
|
Post by brosin on Mar 17, 2010 11:38:35 GMT -5
Good point Uka - treasury/bond markets are a very good leading indicator since they are way bigger than the stock market by way of money flows.
|
|