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Post by demanuel2001 on Feb 3, 2011 9:35:43 GMT -5
Just stuck its nose over the line. Earnings come out at 4:30 today - looking very strong.
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Post by cosmic on Feb 3, 2011 9:37:50 GMT -5
It does indeed... I may have those shares called away...
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Post by kryptos2009 on Feb 3, 2011 9:43:24 GMT -5
Picked up 10 LVS Feb 4 52.5 Calls @ 0.60 yesterday
+18% already today
;D
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Post by demanuel2001 on Feb 3, 2011 9:43:55 GMT -5
Are they Friday calls? You could always roll them back to next week for more premium
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Post by cosmic on Feb 3, 2011 9:48:24 GMT -5
Yup they're for Friday - I'll let them take 'em but yes you're right I could roll them.
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Post by kryptos2009 on Feb 3, 2011 9:54:03 GMT -5
Thinking to hold until the end of the day today or early Friday morning
Do you guys think the stock will go higher Friday if they come out with a good ER today?
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Post by cosmic on Feb 3, 2011 9:57:58 GMT -5
Theta is super high on those and they are OTM (right now) so by tomorrow unless LVS tops 53 those calls will go towards 0 very quickly.
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Post by demanuel2001 on Feb 3, 2011 9:59:04 GMT -5
No guarantees but this stock ran up like crazy through the last earnings
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Post by novice08 on Feb 3, 2011 9:59:34 GMT -5
well, for us slugs who just own shares, sold half @50.55...
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Post by demanuel2001 on Feb 3, 2011 10:00:58 GMT -5
Theta is super high on those and they are OTM (right now) so by tomorrow unless LVS tops 53 those calls will go towards 0 very quickly. Yeah - that's why I bought the monthly $52.50 calls on Tuesday |
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Post by cosmic on Feb 3, 2011 10:02:40 GMT -5
Agreed, was just looking at the history, though it can sometimes mark a high-water point.
The problem Kryp will have with those calls is they are all TP, which has to be disposed of by tomorrow.
So there's .84 in Time Value, .00 in Intrinsic Value
Stock would need to run to 52.5+.84 or 53.34 to have the same intrinsic value - it is entirely possible on a beat...
So if you think there's 7% upside from here on earnings it's a hold.
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Post by brosin on Feb 3, 2011 10:05:52 GMT -5
Nice work guys!
I have 7% unrealized loss on my paper short... only a 4x short position though (I've been much bigger in LVS before) and I will be looking to add to the short should the market continue correcting here today as that will free up a lot of additional funds for me.
Not looking to cover before earnings, will just wait and add to it after if it surges.. GLTA!
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Post by brosin on Feb 3, 2011 10:09:16 GMT -5
V - PLUG is not liquid and is a $100M company. One or 2 orders can drive the price up 10% in minutes. And then it can drive it down just as fast...
Just saying that comparing that to trading LVS is comparing apples vs. strawberries
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Post by cosmic on Feb 3, 2011 10:14:03 GMT -5
Just saying that comparing that to trading LVS is comparing apples vs. strawberries Bananas, Bros, bananas There are risk trades and then there are calculated trades. LVS allows a little of both. PLUG only offers the risk trade. |
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Post by kryptos2009 on Feb 3, 2011 10:16:20 GMT -5
I think I'll sell them on the next good pop and then see about picking up some Feb 11 or 19 calls
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Post by cosmic on Feb 3, 2011 10:17:35 GMT -5
Just be careful and monitor that decay Kryp. I would at least use a mental stop at breakeven. Even at 52.50 those calls have to be worth .00 by EOD tomorrow.
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Post by brosin on Feb 3, 2011 10:20:34 GMT -5
That market spill allowed me to add to a short. I chose to add to this rather than MU (mainly because this is up a couple % while MU is down) $50.05, avg $47.34 on 5x short position now. Still wishing I had covered all at $45 rather than half  ah well |
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Post by demanuel2001 on Feb 3, 2011 10:25:29 GMT -5
Just be careful and monitor that decay Kryp. I would at least use a mental stop at breakeven. Even at 52.50 those calls have to be worth .00 by EOD tomorrow. That is why I only rarely buy options - like my purchase of Feb $52.50 monthly calls. According to my TOS screen I MAKE $2180/day in time decay - of course it's not exactly free money. |
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Post by kryptos2009 on Feb 3, 2011 10:27:05 GMT -5
Just be careful and monitor that decay Kryp. I would at least use a mental stop at breakeven. Even at 52.50 those calls have to be worth .00 by EOD tomorrow. Will do Cos, trying to watch it closely and get some work done.... ;D Just looking for a quick scalp on this. |
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Post by tajmahal9898 on Feb 3, 2011 10:34:55 GMT -5
i understand most of the people on this board are bullish on LVS, but i considering long 50/49 put spread for 45 cents..
risk to reward ratio 50/50 .. thoughts ..
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Post by Rich on Feb 3, 2011 10:47:40 GMT -5
V, you didn't short the LVS, did you?
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Post by cosmic on Feb 3, 2011 10:48:43 GMT -5
 for me lol but I have no problem with the play either way. This thing has to barf some value soon or the stock has to run over 52. 
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Post by demanuel2001 on Feb 3, 2011 10:51:33 GMT -5
I don't have a problem with $52
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Post by cosmic on Feb 3, 2011 10:53:19 GMT -5
And what's really funny is 2-3 days ago I was looking at this lonely call OTM and thinking awwwww, don't you look so shortable you low IV OTM call way out here
mwah
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Post by brosin on Feb 3, 2011 10:54:26 GMT -5
its a tricky short. I have not done this in a long time i haven't found this stock to be very tricky - you just have to wait on it longer than most. when it moves, it moves surprisingly, 11 of my 15 closed trades were short positions - i would've thought it was closer to 50/50 being long and short. this particular batch is looking like the first that i might have to take a loss on (depending on earnings)... but i'll have to wait at least another week or two to find out i bet. |
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Post by cosmic on Feb 3, 2011 10:56:01 GMT -5
I don't have a problem with $52 Quite possible, I show lower 51's more likely. Last night on TOS the probability of closing over 50 was 0.00%. Today it's 48.34%. How's that for changing your mind? |
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Post by brosin on Feb 3, 2011 10:57:43 GMT -5
didn't you just say you bought to cover ("btc") $50.65?
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Post by cosmic on Feb 3, 2011 11:01:25 GMT -5
lol bros I was so confused I just drifted away from it
The IV is so high that they can keep gunning the call, but as they do, the theta keeps going up. It's fascinating.
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Post by cosmic on Feb 3, 2011 11:07:49 GMT -5
V, gonna be interesting.
I got a confirmed Green Arrow buy at 50.10 just a few moments ago on the 1m daytrade chart I use.
I'm not the only one who uses this configuration and indicator, and there are a ton of DeMarkers out there daytrading LVS. Please use a stop is all I ask, I don't know what's gonna happen but it's already started.
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Post by cosmic on Feb 3, 2011 11:09:27 GMT -5
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ah well
