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Post by cosmic on Feb 3, 2011 11:10:26 GMT -5
Notice the high divergence on the FVE. This will most likely turn into buying, and you can see that CMF is already turning.
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Post by demanuel2001 on Feb 3, 2011 11:11:03 GMT -5
If I was short LVS today I would be vewy vewy afwaid! it is the year of the wabbit!
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Post by cosmic on Feb 3, 2011 11:11:34 GMT -5
Ok see if we bounce at 50-50.10 - otherwise V
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Post by cosmic on Feb 3, 2011 11:15:49 GMT -5
Pivot is 50, and right here is where we're going to need to be. They don't know if they need the shares yet at $50, so they'll hover right near the strike they need for tomorrow. Note 50.04 is the 61.8% fib of the recent pullback and top... so makes sense we're focusing in here.
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Post by cosmic on Feb 3, 2011 11:16:36 GMT -5
Note also that FVE crossed as I expected following CMF
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Post by cosmic on Feb 3, 2011 11:18:26 GMT -5
I see dropping like a rock I see a possible stop-run halting near that 49.44, but that's about it. GL
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Post by benvestor on Feb 3, 2011 11:24:58 GMT -5
does have a nice gap fill here V, but this stock is known to just fake out and RUN
LVS is so strong even Cos is taking a positive position.. be careful duder
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Post by cosmic on Feb 3, 2011 11:24:38 GMT -5
Interesting - a close today above or below 50 should be a good confidence gauge.
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Post by cosmic on Feb 3, 2011 11:25:56 GMT -5
No I have a 'non comittal' position - I would prefer a close under 50
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Post by cosmic on Feb 3, 2011 11:28:32 GMT -5
Everyone DUCK - Theta Wave!!!!! V, didn't think they'd let it go below at all - but 49.44? I see that as a rock but it'll make a nice scalp for you. Remember I'm short the 50's so I want a close below, for tomorrow of course but today too.
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Post by brosin on Feb 3, 2011 11:31:17 GMT -5
If I was short LVS today I would be vewy vewy afwaid! it is the year of the wabbit! I am, trust me But that's why it's only one position!
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Post by cosmic on Feb 3, 2011 11:33:25 GMT -5
9 count back up, should not exceed previous HOD, and probably not 50.33
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Post by benvestor on Feb 3, 2011 11:35:41 GMT -5
Cos so then u bought the stock for 46ish, sold calls for premium and if it closes at those 50 strike its called away and u keep the premium but lose the difference in share price right?
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Post by demanuel2001 on Feb 3, 2011 11:44:14 GMT -5
He gets $50 minus $46 plus the premium ($0.92) for a net of $4.92 minus commissions
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Post by cosmic on Feb 3, 2011 11:48:06 GMT -5
48.05 Ben, waited and sold the 50 calls at .92. Let's say LVS closes at 50.01.
I keep 1.95 in share price 48.05 -> 50 (strike I sold) = 1.95.
The calls are worth 0.01, and I shorted the at .92. I also receive that premium. So total is 2.86 take.
But what I would do is if we are going to close at 50.00, I'll buy to close those calls so I can keep those shares and rinse/repeat.
I hate being called away but it's a fact of trading. It's going to be an interesting ride.
Now, if we close 50.92, then I only get 1.95/share and am called away... the 50 calls I sold short at .92 would be fully intrinsic so no profit on the premium side.
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Post by cosmic on Feb 3, 2011 11:50:05 GMT -5
4X a month with 1000 shares makes for goo
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Post by demanuel2001 on Feb 3, 2011 11:53:26 GMT -5
Your main problem if it goes off at $50 is you are "pinned" you don't know whether you will get your shares called away or not. That makes hedging impossible. This is why many folks will buy back options that are expiring very close to the money.
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Post by benvestor on Feb 3, 2011 11:54:41 GMT -5
ok thx for the clarifications guys.
Looks like Goo indeed lol
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Post by cosmic on Feb 3, 2011 11:57:39 GMT -5
Yeah I'm not really worried though I just BTFD and try not to get called. At .92, I was a little leary I always look for $1 or more, so I knew it was a little early. What I didn't expect was the current volatility/theta model which is fascinating. Either way.
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Post by demanuel2001 on Feb 3, 2011 12:02:34 GMT -5
I gotta tell you folks. You MAY be able to scalp a little on the short side here (why not) but IMHO we will see this close above $51 today and then we get the earnings call.
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Post by exabi on Feb 3, 2011 12:10:10 GMT -5
Cos....I think your math is off a little
If it closes at or above 50.01, and you get called, you get the 1.95 share price difference and the premium from selling the calls, .92, for a total of 2.87
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Post by demanuel2001 on Feb 3, 2011 12:14:45 GMT -5
I gotta tell you folks. You MAY be able to scalp a little on the short side here (why not) but IMHO we will see this close above $51 today and then we get the earnings call. I think it goes to $48 after earnings going back in short now As Batman used to say in the old TV show "Poor deluded child"
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Post by cosmic on Feb 3, 2011 12:17:58 GMT -5
Cos....I think your math is off a little If it closes at or above 50.01, and you get called, you get the 1.95 share price difference and the premium from selling the calls, .92, for a total of 2.87 I got that number - I think I know what I did wrong... I calc'd in any intrinsic value above 50.01... which is covered by the stock price.
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Post by brosin on Feb 3, 2011 12:50:05 GMT -5
well that sure makes me feel better lol
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Post by cosmic on Feb 3, 2011 13:18:52 GMT -5
I'm going to add a poll on this one
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Post by cosmic on Feb 3, 2011 13:21:12 GMT -5
Can't only D-Man can
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Post by timber on Feb 3, 2011 13:27:35 GMT -5
i sold it yesterday for a run into earnings....thats a pretty easy call i would never hold a stock during the earnings call
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Post by benvestor on Feb 3, 2011 14:17:47 GMT -5
wow wierd food commods way down, dollar up- yet gld and silver doing great.. ' cnbc just stated fed gives money to hedge funds.. see Bros? well its speculation tho
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Post by kryptos2009 on Feb 3, 2011 14:30:03 GMT -5
Looks like buys are picking up!!
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Post by kryptos2009 on Feb 3, 2011 14:32:27 GMT -5
Put in a very lowball offer on LVS Feb 11 50 Puts @ 0.25
Also moved Stop up on the LVS Feb 4 52.50 Calls to 0.70
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