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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 19, 2010 19:57:32 GMT -5
Check list: - Spy close above 20dma. Check. - Vix decline after those two high wick candles. Check. - Euro up as EU fears subside. Check. - Bonds off as TNX rises back towards 3%. Check. - Nysi closed positive and after a 2 month positive divergence. Check. - Gold safety trade off. Check. - Wall of worry in place. Check. - Everyone bearish. Check.
Time to roll.
Cobra - CPC closed at 0.72 which means the option traders are very very very very bullish. When CPC <= 0.81, 42 out of 61 times (69%) a green day the next day. And perhaps very bullish in the short-term because a so called “Firework” setup was triggered.
Caldaro - The market rallied this morning on a mid-day rally in Europe, but then pulled back to a slightly lower low than friday at SPX 1061. Let's call this a retest of the OEW 1058 pivot. Another rally attempt followed with the SPX hitting 1075 near 3:00 and then the market pulled back some into the close. The OEW short term charts now require a rally over the SPX 1075 level to turn positive again. Support at the OEW 1058 pivot held for the second day in a row. Important support is at the 1041 pivot.
Alphatrends - bear. Lower highs and lows, we're headed to 101 and if that fails to 95. Need to get above 108.2 to reverse the trend.
More later.
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Post by triggerhappy on Jul 19, 2010 20:13:35 GMT -5
Brotha, I am with you, despite being a bag-holder on the long side... But that is in the long term account and I still have plenty of bullets left. In the personal funds, all cash, waiting for a sign. And I see all the signs you see. We just need earnings that don't scare folks away. Sentiment is the problem. Gotta send out rose-colored glasses to the masses... ;D
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 19, 2010 21:14:57 GMT -5
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Post by torrentio1 on Jul 20, 2010 0:33:22 GMT -5
Maybe some thesis confirmation with this one I just glanced at AUY Daily ChartI think she is headed down to around the 8.00ish level.
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Mikey
Broker/Dealer
Posts: 581
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Post by Mikey on Jul 20, 2010 5:57:06 GMT -5
Not a pretty picture here: quotes.ino.com/chart/index.html?s=CME_ES.U10.E&v=d3&t=c&a=50&w=1I'm watching 1,040 for a bounce - if we don't find support there we're in trouble Current holdings: 401K is 1/3 stocks 2/3 bonds IRA is 50% cash (awaiting direction at 1,040), 25% various stocks bought last Friday (FCX, PAAS-ouch!, BAC) and 25% gold/silver Trading acct is 100% DRV from $35.1 yesterday And UK I like the contrarian view that we'll bounce soon and am assuming (didn't read all the posts yesterday) that you saw Carl's latest post, but if you look back at Carl's posts from 2008, you'll see that he has held the same philosophy for years (bad newspaper headlines = good for stocks) and relentlessly continued to call bottoms through the 2nd half of 2008 when bearish sentiment really started ramping up. I think Carl's main value is that when he calls a correction of xx points to the bottom of some box - it'll likely happen. The other 90% of the time he's saying the market will go up. Your checklist is very convincing though - and I'm keeping half of my IRA in cash just to see how this next retest of $1,040 goes. If we get some good economic data or earnings releases and don't even make it down there, I'm gonna buy buy buy! Big housing data releases coming - will likely drive the action GLTA today
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Post by ask2lern on Jul 20, 2010 6:25:40 GMT -5
Morning gang…………thanks for the info ……….Here are the pivots…………I think gold may drop to the 1165-1175 level but not much more then that……………………I think it is a great chance to buy for a LT hold or a trade…………………..I will bet Zimbabwe trillion dollar bills for Bernanke bucks or Karma that gold is back over the 1200 level in the next 8 trading sessions……………could happen much sooner but you got to give the trade time to work ................................ GOLD R4 1210.17 midpoint 1205.57 R3 1200.97 midpoint 1196.37 R2 1191.77 Midpoint 1190.10 R1 1188.43 midpoint 1185.50 PP 1182.57 midpoint 1180.90 S1 1179.23 midpoint 1176.30 S2 1173.37 midpoint 1168.77 S3 1164.17 midpoint 1159.57 S4 1154.97 SILVER R4 18.51 midpoint 18.36 R3 18.21 midpoint 18.06 R2 17.91 midpoint 17.82 R1 17.73 midpoint 17.67 PP 17.61 midpoint 17.52 S1 17.43 midpoint 17.37 S2 17.31 midpoint 17.16 S3 17.01 midpoint 16.86 S4 16.71 IMW R3 63.15 R2 62.31 R1 61.82 PP 60.98 S1 60.49 S2 59.65 S3 59.16 TNA R4 43.09 midpoint 41.91 R3 40.73 midpoint 39.55 R2 38.37 midpoint 37.92 R1 37.46 midpoint 36.74 PP 36.01 midpoint 35.56 S1 35.10 midpoint 34.38 S2 33.65 midpoint 32.47 S3 31.29 midpoint 30.11 S4 28.93 TZA R4 47.20 Midpoint 45.92 R3 44.63 midpoint 43.35 R2 42.06 midpoint 41.27 R1 40.47 midpoint 39.98 PP 39.49 midpoint 38.70 S1 37.90 midpoint 37.41 S2 36.92 midpoint 35.64 S3 34.35 midpoint 33.07 S4 31.78 SDS R3 35.96 R2 35.60 R1 35.05 PP 34.69 S1 34.14 S2 33.78 S3 33.26 ………………………..GLTA As a note I do not advocate gold miners for a core position..........they are to leveraged IMO.....they can be some great trades though................GLTA
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Post by abdogman on Jul 20, 2010 7:10:37 GMT -5
Good Morning Gang.....Thanks to ALL for the info .....Back for the Open!!
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Post by clemsontygr on Jul 20, 2010 7:20:13 GMT -5
Morning gang…………thanks for the info ……….Here are the pivots…………I think gold may drop to the 1165-1175 level but not much more then that……………………I think it is a great chance to buy for a LT hold or a trade…………………..I will bet Zimbabwe trillion dollar bills for Bernanke bucks or Karma that gold is back over the 1200 level in the next 8 trading sessions……………could happen much sooner but you got to give the trade time to work ................................ GOLD R4 1210.17 midpoint 1205.57 R3 1200.97 midpoint 1196.37 R2 1191.77 Midpoint 1190.10 R1 1188.43 midpoint 1185.50 PP 1182.57 midpoint 1180.90 S1 1179.23 midpoint 1176.30 S2 1173.37 midpoint 1168.77 S3 1164.17 midpoint 1159.57 S4 1154.97 SILVER R4 18.51 midpoint 18.36 R3 18.21 midpoint 18.06 R2 17.91 midpoint 17.82 R1 17.73 midpoint 17.67 PP 17.61 midpoint 17.52 S1 17.43 midpoint 17.37 S2 17.31 midpoint 17.16 S3 17.01 midpoint 16.86 S4 16.71 IMW R3 63.15 R2 62.31 R1 61.82 PP 60.98 S1 60.49 S2 59.65 S3 59.16 TNA R4 43.09 midpoint 41.91 R3 40.73 midpoint 39.55 R2 38.37 midpoint 37.92 R1 37.46 midpoint 36.74 PP 36.01 midpoint 35.56 S1 35.10 midpoint 34.38 S2 33.65 midpoint 32.47 S3 31.29 midpoint 30.11 S4 28.93 TZA R4 47.20 Midpoint 45.92 R3 44.63 midpoint 43.35 R2 42.06 midpoint 41.27 R1 40.47 midpoint 39.98 PP 39.49 midpoint 38.70 S1 37.90 midpoint 37.41 S2 36.92 midpoint 35.64 S3 34.35 midpoint 33.07 S4 31.78 SDS R3 35.96 R2 35.60 R1 35.05 PP 34.69 S1 34.14 S2 33.78 S3 33.26 ………………………..GLTA As a note I do not advocate gold miners for a core position..........they are to leveraged IMO.....they can be some great trades though................GLTA I'll take that bet for 5 Karma's ...(close above) (PS: I'm a physical holder too ;-) )
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Mikey
Broker/Dealer
Posts: 581
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Post by Mikey on Jul 20, 2010 7:29:44 GMT -5
Out DRV $36.9 in pre-market, +5% from yesterday And since gold seems to be a hot topic today, check out this video and chart (with support levels at Fibonacci retracement points):
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 20, 2010 8:19:30 GMT -5
Carl - Today's range estimate is 1045-1065. The drop from last week's high at 1099 should end today or tomorrow.
Oscar - Traders, the signals are a bit mixed at this time coming from the ES and its sister indices. We will approach this trading session from a neutral posture allowing the market to test key OMNI levels before entering into a position.
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Post by kryptos2009 on Jul 20, 2010 8:25:26 GMT -5
Here is the PP Daily Thread (PPDT) data. XLF PP=14.07 MP=14.17 R1=14.26 MP=14.33 R2=14.39 MP=14.55 R3=14.71 MP=14.87 R4=15.03 MP=14.01 S1=13.94 MP=13.85 S2=13.75 MP=13.59 S3=13.43 MP=13.27 S4=13.11 O=14.15 H=14.21 L=13.89 C=14.12 FAS PP=19.94 MP=20.30 R1=20.65 MP=20.92 R2=21.18 MP=21.80 R3=22.42 MP=23.04 R4=23.66 MP=19.68 S1=19.41 MP=19.06 S2=18.70 MP=18.08 S3=17.46 MP=16.84 S4=16.22 O=20.23 H=20.48 L=19.24 C=20.11 FAZ PP=15.96 MP=16.17 R1=16.38 MP=16.67 R2=16.95 MP=17.44 R3=17.94 MP=18.43 R4=18.93 MP=15.68 S1=15.39 MP=15.18 S2=14.97 MP=14.47 S3=13.98 MP=13.48 S4=12.99 O=15.73 H=16.52 L=15.53 C=15.82 SPY PP=107.05 MP=107.46 R1=107.87 MP=108.17 R2=108.46 MP=109.16 R3=109.87 MP=110.57 R4=111.28 MP=106.76 S1=106.46 MP=106.05 S2=105.64 MP=104.93 S3=104.23 MP=103.52 S4=102.82 O=107.05 H=107.63 L=106.22 C=107.29 SPG PP=82.78 MP=83.54 R1=84.30 MP=84.77 R2=85.23 MP=86.46 R3=87.68 MP=88.91 R4=90.13 MP=82.32 S1=81.85 MP=81.09 S2=80.33 MP=79.11 S3=77.88 MP=76.66 S4=75.43 O=82.59 H=83.72 L=81.27 C=83.36 GS PP=145.83 MP=146.69 R1=147.55 MP=148.49 R2=149.43 MP=151.23 R3=153.03 MP=154.83 R4=156.63 MP=144.89 S1=143.95 MP=143.09 S2=142.23 MP=140.43 S3=138.63 MP=136.83 S4=135.03 O=147.67 H=147.7 L=144.1 C=145.68 JPM PP=38.84 MP=39.20 R1=39.56 MP=39.82 R2=40.08 MP=40.70 R3=41.32 MP=41.94 R4=42.56 MP=38.58 S1=38.32 MP=37.96 S2=37.60 MP=36.98 S3=36.36 MP=35.74 S4=35.12 O=39.03 H=39.36 L=38.12 C=39.04 MS PP=24.71 MP=24.89 R1=25.06 MP=25.20 R2=25.34 MP=25.66 R3=25.97 MP=26.29 R4=26.60 MP=24.57 S1=24.43 MP=24.26 S2=24.08 MP=23.77 S3=23.45 MP=23.14 S4=22.82 O=24.75 H=24.99 L=24.36 C=24.78 C PP=3.96 MP=4.01 R1=4.06 MP=4.11 R2=4.15 MP=4.24 R3=4.34 MP=4.43 R4=4.53 MP=3.92 S1=3.87 MP=3.82 S2=3.77 MP=3.67 S3=3.58 MP=3.48 S4=3.39 O=3.93 H=4.04 L=3.85 C=3.98 VIX PP=26.13 MP=26.64 R1=27.14 MP=27.73 R2=28.31 MP=29.40 R3=30.49 MP=31.58 R4=32.67 MP=25.55 S1=24.96 MP=24.46 S2=23.95 MP=22.86 S3=21.77 MP=20.68 S4=19.59 O=27.02 H=27.3 L=25.12 C=25.97 UUP PP=24.01 MP=24.04 R1=24.06 MP=24.07 R2=24.08 MP=24.12 R3=24.15 MP=24.19 R4=24.22 MP=24.00 S1=23.99 MP=23.97 S2=23.94 MP=23.91 S3=23.87 MP=23.84 S4=23.80 O=24.01 H=24.04 L=23.97 C=24.03 FROM: www.econoday.comEconomic Events & Analysis - 7/20/2010 Tuesday7:45 AM ET ICSC-Goldman Store Sales 8:30 AM ET Housing Starts 8:55 AM ET Redbook 10:00 AM ET Dan Tarullo Speaks 11:30 AM ET 4-Week Bill Auction NOTE: The previous days OHLC data for todays PPDT was gathered from finance.yahoo.com for each individual stock by a series of webquerys built into a spreadsheet. The formulas used by the www.mypivots.com website to create the Pivot Points were found in the sites help files. The formulas were built into the spreadsheet which acts on the previous days OHLC data gathered from Yahoo. The Pivot Points were created using the formulas from www.mypivots.com but NOT by using the site. Please let me know if you find any errors in the data. Use of this data is at your own risk.
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Post by ask2lern on Jul 20, 2010 8:26:45 GMT -5
From optionmonster.com......................GLTA
Tech, banks are keys to index levels July 20, 2010 Tue 12:11 AM CT
There was little movement in levels yesterday, but that situation is likely to change as earnings news intensifies dramatically today.
With worse-than-expected results from IBM (IBM) and Texas Instruments (TXN) ater the market closed yesterday, tech stock bulls could see the day start well into the red.
Goldman Sachs (GS) is likely to set the tone for the financial sector, the only one to close out yesterday on the downside.
Nasdaq 100 (NDX)
First support is at 1774.05. First resistance is now at 1836.
For the Nasdaq 100 Index Tracking Stock (QQQQ) first support is at $43.69. First resistance is at $45.11.
S&P 500 (SPX)
First support is now at 1055.90. First resistance is at 1082.60.
For the Standard & Poor's Depository Receipts (SPY) first support is at $105.36. First resistance is at $108.32.
Russell 2000 (RUT)
First support is now at 590.57. First resistance is now at 620, the 10-day moving average.
For the iShares Trust Russell 2000 Index Fund (IWM) first support is at $58.97. First resistance is at $61.93.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 20, 2010 8:28:44 GMT -5
A fall below 104.5 would be worrisome.
SSEC has put together two monster days. It is now less than 1% below its 50dma. This will (as usual) be R. Recall that the SSEC retraced to the 62% fib. Want to see those MAs start to move up so consolidation above the 20dma and 50dma is very positive.
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Post by cosmic on Jul 20, 2010 8:29:42 GMT -5
Thinking out loud... If I see impulse sell waves, I'm not buying anything long, will look to a brief rise, and then short the crap out of it. There is no 'good news' until they want it, and right now this market doesn't want it. They want to sell sell sell sell sell and sell.
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Post by abdogman on Jul 20, 2010 8:36:12 GMT -5
xlf 13.905 on 1m ....below s1
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Post by cosmic on Jul 20, 2010 8:35:16 GMT -5
LOL it's all over the place, this market is truly in need bipolar medicine.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 20, 2010 8:36:26 GMT -5
106.2ish might be a pt of failure on this move up.
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Post by ccash04 on Jul 20, 2010 8:38:53 GMT -5
MOS opened off 1.6% now its a little green, incredible.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 20, 2010 8:39:58 GMT -5
Spain, Ireland and Greece easily sell nearly €9.5B in bonds of varying maturities at auction today, in the latest sign that the crisis of confidence engulfing the eurozone is loosening its grip. Yields on the Spanish bonds actually fell from a previous sale.
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Post by ask2lern on Jul 20, 2010 8:43:04 GMT -5
Hey clem, I am betting it will be above 1200 ............are you taking the lower side ..........GL PS Sold all my puts this am.................all cash....................GLTA
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Post by abdogman on Jul 20, 2010 8:43:23 GMT -5
macd just pos on 1m for xlf fas xlf on 1m 13.93
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Mikey
Broker/Dealer
Posts: 581
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Post by Mikey on Jul 20, 2010 8:45:47 GMT -5
Long VXX $26.95
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Post by ccash04 on Jul 20, 2010 8:47:19 GMT -5
Between MON MOS and POT should have bought them at the open. As all are now green MON leading up over 1%. Ag names should perform well until Sept.
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Post by abdogman on Jul 20, 2010 8:49:23 GMT -5
BB's tight xlf fas faz xlf 13.92
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Post by ccash04 on Jul 20, 2010 8:50:24 GMT -5
SSEC has put together two monster days. It is now less than 1% below its 50dma. This will (as usual) be R. Recall that the SSEC retraced to the 62% fib. Want to see those MAs start to move up so consolidation above the 20dma and 50dma is very positive. I been watching the SSEC too, very encouraging action last night. I'm watching 2600 as the hard resistance, when it broke that it broke down hard. Its been support multiple times if you go back on a 2-year timeframe
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Post by abdogman on Jul 20, 2010 8:51:34 GMT -5
BB's closing on vix 1m
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 20, 2010 8:53:02 GMT -5
MON has very strong insider buying, btw.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 20, 2010 8:55:05 GMT -5
Steel and copper strong.
tick +1000 at R1.
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Post by ccash04 on Jul 20, 2010 8:55:15 GMT -5
Long term be careful on MON as I hear that RoundUp has pressure on it from cheaper producers. In the near term, they are cheap and the time of the year is right.
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Post by abdogman on Jul 20, 2010 8:59:07 GMT -5
xlf hovering just above S1 ..BB's still tight xlf at 13.955 on 1m
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