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Post by Dualism on Jul 20, 2010 10:03:27 GMT -5
I'm finding it very tough day trading this market. What has been working well so far has been short-options. I really want to short the BIDU 70 puts as 70 held yesterday and the premiums are absurd (pricing what looks to be around a 6.5% move). So far BIDU has not failed to deliver on earnings and the one time they did it fell only 8% only to be back up to previous levels in like 2 weeks. A bull put spread perhaps. Short the 70 puts, long the 60 puts as protection, for a net credit of around 3.20? |
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Post by abdogman on Jul 20, 2010 10:12:01 GMT -5
vix BB's spread at 1101 dropping slowly since now 26.07
BB's on xlf fas faz spreading now xlf at 14.07 macd pos moving up as well as fas
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Post by sp7015 on Jul 20, 2010 10:16:39 GMT -5
Amazing. It appears they ran aapl down to $240 probabley to buy calls and now they are running it back towards $250.
Crocks.
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Post by Dualism on Jul 20, 2010 10:20:15 GMT -5
Bonds are retracing sharply. This market feels bullish.
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Post by cosmic on Jul 20, 2010 10:28:23 GMT -5
Bonds are retracing sharply. This market feels bullish. Not that it's how they want you to feel ;D On the Bidu trade you discussed, I modeled that. Let's say you did 3 contracts each... That ties up about $2100 in BP, for a $900 return. Is that a good ratio? |
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Post by abdogman on Jul 20, 2010 10:30:09 GMT -5
BB's narrowing on 1m xlf fas faz
xlf at 14.07 on 1m
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Post by abdogman on Jul 20, 2010 10:37:24 GMT -5
Bb's spreading now and macd neg on xlf fas
xlf 14.03
Both on 1m
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 20, 2010 10:37:39 GMT -5
Mikey's comments on Carl are interesting. I didn't follow him in 2008, nor Oscar and the others. I've been experimenting with the metapundit approach to see if it has any value. My conclusion so far is that their approach to looking at the market is more valuable than their prognosis. Also, good trading (Oscar) can trump bad analytics (Oscar) and vice versa (Carl). Carl's record of trading in 2008-09 was pretty impressive (http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/2009/03/blog-trading-record.html). He's been in a rough spot recently and I think we all know how that feels (at least I do). I pay attention to not just what he says but also when he puts money down as a sign of his conviction. He's not trading very much so I surmise that his conviction is not high either. I think that is very important. I'm also trying to be much more careful and not screw up. I'm finding my least sexy investments are really doing well and so I'm content to play around with those more while the clouds pass overhead. My final point on Carl is that there is valuue in looking at the glass half full, especially now when it seems everyone is looking at an empty glass.
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Post by abdogman on Jul 20, 2010 10:39:07 GMT -5
BB's tight on vix 1m
vix at 25.74 on 1m
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Post by Dualism on Jul 20, 2010 10:41:03 GMT -5
Bonds are retracing sharply. This market feels bullish. Not that it's how they want you to feel ;D On the Bidu trade you discussed, I modeled that. Let's say you did 3 contracts each... That ties up about $2100 in BP, for a $900 return. Is that a good ratio? When you compare it to doing something similar with SPY or QQQQ, it is quite attractive. But keeping in mind that BIDU has an IV of around 60%, one should be cautiously respectful of it. I find BP/return ratio of ZN (10year T note) given its low IV (6.5%) and generally much safer nature than stocks, on short term basis (weeks), just remarkable. |
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Post by abdogman on Jul 20, 2010 10:41:37 GMT -5
xlf 13.99 on 1m
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Post by abdogman on Jul 20, 2010 10:45:54 GMT -5
vix BB's on 1m spreading and first move on vix was up 25.90 on 1m now
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Post by cosmic on Jul 20, 2010 10:47:58 GMT -5
I feel so doomy   |
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 20, 2010 10:50:56 GMT -5
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Post by cosmic on Jul 20, 2010 10:51:22 GMT -5
I will be selling shares of the 3x ETF CosDoom - will open for trades tomorrow if they name the Low Pressure.
There is both a long and short ETF.
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Post by cosmic on Jul 20, 2010 10:53:15 GMT -5
If you look at the MACD, it sort of highlights the waves. That's why everyone is worried about Wave 5 of this formation - where the MACD will go negative again. |
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 20, 2010 10:54:13 GMT -5
That HTS has been a firecracker. That's what I mean by the not sexy working.
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Post by abdogman on Jul 20, 2010 10:54:31 GMT -5
since 1015EDT the Vix on the 5m has trended steadily down
xlf 13.99 on 1m
macd near 00
i'm going to take care of dog walk and lunch
See Ya appx 1400EDT and **GOOD LUCK**
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Post by elkuta0380 on Jul 20, 2010 10:56:09 GMT -5
off to a meeting... no one rally this market while I am gone... okay?  |
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Post by cosmic on Jul 20, 2010 10:56:26 GMT -5
Oh man I thought you were saying you'd see us at 1400SPX. Dangit
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Post by Dualism on Jul 20, 2010 10:57:32 GMT -5
I will be selling shares of the 3x ETF CosDoom - will open for trades tomorrow if they name the Low Pressure. There is both a long and short ETF. Just keeps us up to date on upcoming reverse splits. |
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 20, 2010 10:57:37 GMT -5
otoh, the pos divergence of macd to price is setting up, possibly, that higher low and then b/o. I'm trying to be open to the anti-doom.
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Post by cosmic on Jul 20, 2010 11:01:57 GMT -5
I will be selling shares of the 3x ETF CosDoom - will open for trades tomorrow if they name the Low Pressure. There is both a long and short ETF. Just keeps us up to date on upcoming reverse splits. As always, make sure to short CosDoom, it's a scam and my fees for daily rebalance are huge! |
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Post by Dualism on Jul 20, 2010 11:13:53 GMT -5
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Post by Dualism on Jul 20, 2010 11:21:29 GMT -5
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Post by clearwaters on Jul 20, 2010 11:24:51 GMT -5
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Post by exabi on Jul 20, 2010 11:31:13 GMT -5
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Post by rex on Jul 20, 2010 11:31:47 GMT -5
I feel so doomy So sorry, Cos. I'm going to show my ignorance by asking what is happening at doom location #2.   Possible hurricane! I'm keeping my eye on it too. |
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Post by cosmic on Jul 20, 2010 11:33:57 GMT -5
I won't get worried until they name the storm. It's far enough out that there could be some development. We usually see our most likely storms form in late August-October, but it was a very warm spring so I have to assume the waters are ripe to blow off some heat.
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Post by clearwaters on Jul 20, 2010 11:34:24 GMT -5
Thanks for the info. The ocean is so beautiful, but oh the price you pay for living so close to it. But hey, we all have something! I'm in Arkansas and spring and fall are nonstop tornadoes!
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