|
Post by cosmic on Jul 20, 2010 11:37:39 GMT -5
Thanks for the info. The ocean is so beautiful, but oh the price you pay for living so close to it. But hey, we all have something! I'm in Arkansas and spring and fall are nonstop tornadoes! And those tornadoes kick up with very little warning. At least we get 3 days to panic usually. Our news stations aren't any better. They love hurricane doom. They start running the Andrew specials, and then every track they show always has Broward/Dade right in the crosshairs. If it's anything under Cat 5, I feel relatively safe. The house is a bunker, and I have yet to close the hurricane shutters for a real storm - I had them installed about 6 years ago I think. I like the hurricanes, I've always loved storms. The most fun is going out on the porch and cooking breakfast over the propane tank with the power out in 50 mph winds. Keeps the bacon flying!
|
|
|
Post by ask2lern on Jul 20, 2010 11:40:09 GMT -5
Thanks for the info. The ocean is so beautiful, but oh the price you pay for living so close to it. But hey, we all have something! I'm in Arkansas and spring and fall are nonstop tornadoes! And I live in Beautiful MN where the 9 month winters make you appreciate the 3 months of beauty we call summer................also you have something to look forward to for the majority year..................summer............. ;D ;D
|
|
|
Post by Dualism on Jul 20, 2010 11:45:31 GMT -5
4-Week Bill Auction Released on 7/20/2010 11:30:00 AM For 7/20/2010 11:30:00 AM
Auction Results:
4-Week Bill Treasury Rate 0.155% Bid/Cover 4.42 Total Amount $32 B
|
|
|
Post by cosmic on Jul 20, 2010 11:47:13 GMT -5
Wow BTC was huge - sounds like Treasury did their job, scared more people into T-bonds.
|
|
|
Post by Dualism on Jul 20, 2010 11:50:51 GMT -5
4-Week Bill Auction Released on 7/20/2010 11:30:00 AM For 7/20/2010 11:30:00 AM Auction Results: 4-Week Bill Treasury Rate 0.155% Bid/Cover 4.42 Total Amount $32 B I wish real life for us was like that: The more debt you hold, the lower the rate the lender demands. In fact you would have bunch of banks vying for you to borrow.
|
|
|
Post by elkuta0380 on Jul 20, 2010 11:51:21 GMT -5
off to a meeting... no one rally this market while I am gone... okay? I'm back.. Thanks for holding the ground!!!
|
|
|
Post by elkuta0380 on Jul 20, 2010 11:57:24 GMT -5
flip a coin time... break up or break down....
|
|
|
Post by ask2lern on Jul 20, 2010 12:00:15 GMT -5
For theose that follow AAPL from optionmonster.com Apple at crossroads before report July 20, 2010 Tue 11:08 AM CT Traders are divided over the direction of Apple, which has stalled around an all-time high since its last blowout earnings report. Option volume has been heavy in AAPL leading up to its earnings release after the bell today. Almost 366,000 contracts changed hands yesterday, more than quadruple the average for Apple, making it the fourth most-active name in the options market. Over the previous month, it had ranked No. 10 on optionMONSTER's tracking programs. Despite an amazing run--its stock more than double since early 2009--Apple now stands at a major juncture. The company's last earnings report on April 20 crushed expectations and drew a picture of a nearly infinite mass of potential buyers clamoring for the next iPhone and iPad. In the last few weeks, however, that picture has darkened after complaints that the latest iPhone 4 has reception problems when held a certain way. The controversy, dubbed "Antennagate," forced the company to give away free cases and triggered a spate of name-calling between Apple CEO Steve Jobs and executives at other smartphone makers such as Research In Motion and HTC. The back-and-forth has kept Apple options in high demand. Implied volatility, which measures the price of calls and puts independent of the share price, has climbed to more than 42 percent from 36 percent in mid-June. But this increase has come at the same time that Apple shares have made less volatile price swings--which means investors apparently believe that the company's earnings news today will move the shares in a big way, regardless of what it says. The Apple phenomenon has affected other stocks as well, positively and negatively. ARM Holdings, for instance, has been moving sharply higher since early 2009 because it designs the high-performance and energy-efficient chips used in the iPhone and other smartphones. The success has fueled speculation that Apple might attempt to buy the British company, which sent the stock ripping to an eight-year high $14.81 last week. Uploaded with ImageShack.usWhile the pop in the shares looked bullish, our tracking systems detected heavy put buying in the name yesterday as investors looked for a move down later in the year. There was also heavy call selling during the last push higher, suggesting that investors doubted the sustainability of the move. A similar pattern has emerged in other stocks competing in the wireless and smartphone sectors. Motorola, considered a major challenger to Apple because its handsets running on Google's Android operating system, also saw heavy selling of its August 7 and August 8 calls yesterday. The activity occurred after Motorola rallied 22 percent so far this month to its highest level since early January. Nokia and Research In Motion, which have both lost customers to the iPhone, have also been subjected to heavy call selling. Research In Motion, a former darling of tech investors thanks to the success of its iconic BlackBerry device, is down 20 percent this year and recently touched its lowest price since April 2009. Nokia, a producer of ordinary handsets and lower-end smartphones, is now trading near levels last seen in 1998. (Chart courtesy of tradeMONSTER) By: David Russell
|
|
|
Post by Dualism on Jul 20, 2010 12:09:47 GMT -5
At the risk of being redundant (Ukarl reported this earlier), 50 dsma is within reach. Uploaded with ImageShack.us
|
|
|
Post by ask2lern on Jul 20, 2010 12:11:14 GMT -5
Based on what I use I have 107.04 as R on SPY 5min.............................GL
|
|
|
Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 20, 2010 12:12:36 GMT -5
NY breadth has returned to flat after starting the day in the cellar. Now vol is actually slightly pos.
NQ is 2:1 neg issues, 4:1 neg vol. Problem.
|
|
|
Post by cosmic on Jul 20, 2010 12:12:41 GMT -5
When I look at that chart, I see a breakout of the downgtrend, and then the 'unsure' following of the trendline... but instead of trading under the trend, it's trading above, making the July low look capitulatory.
|
|
|
Post by elkuta0380 on Jul 20, 2010 12:14:18 GMT -5
When I look at that chart, I see a breakout of the downgtrend, and then the 'unsure' following of the trendline... but instead of trading under the trend, it's trading above, making the July low look capitulatory. I'm seeing the same thing.... My money is placed on the 'false breakout' idea. If 107.10 breaks, i'll cover... waiting.
|
|
|
Post by ask2lern on Jul 20, 2010 12:16:07 GMT -5
Based on what I use I have 107.04 as R on SPY 5min.............................GL 106.84 is S below..........then 106.63.......................GL
|
|
|
Post by cosmic on Jul 20, 2010 12:20:58 GMT -5
When I look at that chart, I see a breakout of the downgtrend, and then the 'unsure' following of the trendline... but instead of trading under the trend, it's trading above, making the July low look capitulatory. I'm seeing the same thing.... My money is placed on the 'false breakout' idea. If 107.10 breaks, i'll cover... waiting. We'll give that formation a new name in honor of Commodityy. We'll call it the LatchKey ReversalThere's really no one home.
|
|
|
Post by deadmoney95 on Jul 20, 2010 12:21:41 GMT -5
Speaking of Carl F, he's upped his day range to 1069.
He also offers the following update:
Here is a daily chart of the September e-minis. I think that the 1002.75 low in early July ended the drop from the April 26 high. The first leg up nearly matched the size of the rally from the May 25 low at 1032 to the June 21 high at 1129 and established the initial 96 point box of the new uptrend (lower blue rectangle). A three day drop has carried the ES down to the midpoint of the first box (lower blue dash line). This midpoint is also in the general vicinity of three previous lows (horizontal green dash lines).
I am guessing that today's low at 1050.75 will hold, but even if it doesn't the worst I see on the downside is 1035 or so. Assuming today's low does hold I have drawn an upward sloping trend channel. A similarly paced advance from today's low would carry the second up leg to the 1145-50 zone, the midpoint of the second box, the level that would match the size of the first up leg, and a point near the upper channel line (green oval).
|
|
|
Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 20, 2010 12:30:37 GMT -5
107.17 is the 20hma. Spy likes to trade around this ma. It marked the hod R yesterday.
|
|
|
Post by ccash04 on Jul 20, 2010 12:32:28 GMT -5
I really want to short the BIDU 70 puts as 70 held yesterday and the premiums are absurd (pricing what looks to be around a 6.5% move). So far BIDU has not failed to deliver on earnings and the one time they did it fell only 8% only to be back up to previous levels in like 2 weeks. A bull put spread perhaps. Short the 70 puts, long the 60 puts as protection, for a net credit of around 3.20? Thanks Dual, I did just that and I got it for 3.4 after doing each leg separately, and got a the 80/85 call spread for a total net credit of 2.20. I generally don't like 4 leg spreads but I will ratio it as necessary. I'm pretty bullish on BIDU as each earnings report is usually very good so until that trend changes I don't have a problem. I probably should just stick to the treasuries as their IV is far more reasonable but that IV will drop probably to 48-52 helping out the short contracts after earnings tomorrow.
|
|
|
Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 20, 2010 12:34:04 GMT -5
107.17 is the 20hma. Spy likes to trade around this ma. It marked the hod R yesterday. Just hit it with the tick hod: +1200.
|
|
|
Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 20, 2010 12:39:21 GMT -5
+1350 1430.
Spy daily RSI has broken through 60. If it can close above 60, it would be the first time since April. Normally, 60 is the range high in a downtrend.
|
|
|
Post by cosmic on Jul 20, 2010 12:39:57 GMT -5
lol look at the volume on NEPH.OB - it was a big hit for a while as a trading stock, then they crushed it by 90+%. Traded 4K shares today. Doom.
|
|
|
Post by cosmic on Jul 20, 2010 12:40:55 GMT -5
You can literally see the squids getting released - every time we hit a new support zone, they try to sell it back down.
|
|
|
Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 20, 2010 12:41:35 GMT -5
A hat tip to Doug Kass who said we'd go green today early on. He's had some good calls recently.
|
|
|
Post by cosmic on Jul 20, 2010 12:42:52 GMT -5
Uk, wasn't Kass's longer term prognosis more bullish than bearish? I remember a discussion on it a week or so ago.
|
|
|
Post by Dualism on Jul 20, 2010 12:45:40 GMT -5
ES attempting to break above yesterday's high.
|
|
|
Post by Dualism on Jul 20, 2010 12:49:06 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by cosmic on Jul 20, 2010 12:51:17 GMT -5
I so feel like hedging for doom here but can't bring myself to do it.
What do you think?
|
|
|
Post by Dualism on Jul 20, 2010 12:53:44 GMT -5
I so feel like hedging for doom here but can't bring myself to do it. What do you think? I think bull call spreads may be more your cup of tea.
|
|
|
Post by ccash04 on Jul 20, 2010 12:54:16 GMT -5
Your best bet for hedging for doom might be to place a far OTM treasury call as the IV is so low a sharp move towards it would be quite profitable
|
|
|
Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 20, 2010 12:54:17 GMT -5
A yes, a lower L for vix. So sad.
Kass really screwed up last year. Went bear in the autumn, missed the entire run to April. I don't know what his overall view is but he's been posting more s-t trades in the past few weeks and done very well. He nailed the bottom and the reaction high, or example.
Tick has been pinned to the high here for 20'. That's unusual for this time of day. I'd have expected a retrace within 30' of the first high tick. Let's see.
|
|