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Post by Clinton SPX on Jul 16, 2010 10:59:22 GMT -5
GM just got up. Yesterday Timber asked me why I don't buy stocks anymore. Todays action is why! LOL.... My TA tells me to hold my FAZ position for 6 more days min. I am not telling you to buy or sell anything, this is MY game plan
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 16, 2010 10:59:58 GMT -5
Jpm now at the top rail b/t and the 50hma.
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Post by maxi on Jul 16, 2010 11:01:24 GMT -5
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Post by ccash04 on Jul 16, 2010 11:02:09 GMT -5
Oscar - Short ES at 1093. He doesn't like the index sitting at the top rail. Carl - Today's range estimate is 1085-1102. GLD is very weak, off 1% PM. USTs also weak, with TNX over 3%. Euro strong, pushing 1.295. This should all be supportive for today. It is OpEX so moves tend to be muted... I was wrong lol ;D
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Post by ccash04 on Jul 16, 2010 11:04:50 GMT -5
could be a nice bottom tail on the dollar on the daily
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Post by jack on Jul 16, 2010 11:04:10 GMT -5
Dollar reversal C, BAC & GE reports not promising European debt crisis OPEX ...and the little known fact that the US's credit rating was down-graded by the Chinese so when we continue to borrow from them it'll cost US more in interest.
...but my tomato plants are now over 8' high and I got 'em coming out the whazoo!
;D
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 16, 2010 11:09:59 GMT -5
Bespoke - While a 2% decline is bad enough, today's breadth is absolutely abysmal. In the S&P 500, there are currently only ten stocks trading higher and 489 trading lower (one stock is unchanged). Going back to 1990, there have been 59 other days where the S&P 500 has had a one day breadth reading of -450 or more (as of 11:45 Eastern today's breadth is -479). On those days, the S&P 500 has seen an average decline of 3.7%, and there have only been six days where the decline were less than 2%. So, as of now the longs are getting off easy
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 16, 2010 11:12:11 GMT -5
Spy - still following the bottom rail. We need a capitulation event. 107.3 is the 20dma.
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Post by Clinton SPX on Jul 16, 2010 11:12:58 GMT -5
There should be many up spots on the way down to fool retails into going long, these are great spots to get short
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Post by Clinton SPX on Jul 16, 2010 11:14:24 GMT -5
will there be a 2 oclock rally today? How crushing will the 3 oclock rebalance be? Inquiring minds want to know.
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Post by jack on Jul 16, 2010 11:14:42 GMT -5
Capitulation?
...but I'm NOT french.
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Post by jack on Jul 16, 2010 11:15:44 GMT -5
will there be a 2 oclock rally today? How crushing will the 3 oclock rebalance be? Inquiring minds want to know. How many "minds" do you have man?
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Post by cosmic on Jul 16, 2010 11:15:43 GMT -5
Out of SPY puts hedge, 38%
Ben at 1
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Post by jack on Jul 16, 2010 11:17:21 GMT -5
Seeing -600 to -1000 ticks
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Post by ccash04 on Jul 16, 2010 11:17:33 GMT -5
FWIW CME is coming up on support around the 265 level.. Earnings on the 29th however a big concern would be the FinReg bill taking away their competitive advantage in clearing swaps.
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Post by ccash04 on Jul 16, 2010 11:19:37 GMT -5
Also check out MON and MOS a play off of soybean futures hitting the sky.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 16, 2010 11:20:24 GMT -5
We will probably just grind down until the capitulation. This is where patience pays. Need the good set up.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 16, 2010 11:21:56 GMT -5
The stocktwit guys are also all over agri right now.
Good lord that Vix is volatile
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 16, 2010 11:27:08 GMT -5
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Post by Clinton SPX on Jul 16, 2010 11:28:43 GMT -5
might be afternoon rally, 1min obv not all that bad for now
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 16, 2010 11:31:11 GMT -5
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Post by cosmic on Jul 16, 2010 11:31:30 GMT -5
Ok with today's extreme action, a number of put writers will find themselves in trouble. In effect as we approach Opex what you see is big players shorting both puts and calls into the ground hoping at expiration for them to be OTM and worthless. Yesterday saw a huge number of puts shorted (as well as during the week on the ride up.)
So now the imbalance is that if those puts that were shorted close ITM, the writer either has to buy them back at a loss or take the shares, but at a slightly reduced cost (based on the premium for shorting.)
So they made the short call people capitulate, and now the short put people. The interesting aspect is there have been a lot of shares 'soaked up' at this level.
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Post by elle on Jul 16, 2010 11:32:29 GMT -5
checking in - iwm also at S, second touch of downtrend F we b/o on Tues; obwiously a break into it be wery bad, hold then uptrend still in play
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Post by sp7015 on Jul 16, 2010 11:34:34 GMT -5
23 min to aapl announcement
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Post by sp7015 on Jul 16, 2010 11:38:15 GMT -5
All I know is that they took GS down hard today. Especially after the after hours action with it trading at $152-$154
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 16, 2010 11:38:36 GMT -5
We had a post yesterday from a trader saying we were due for 90% down day. This is probably it. Breadth: Ny issues 5:1 neg, 20:1 neg vol Nq issues 7:1 neg, 13:1 neg vol
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Post by elle on Jul 16, 2010 11:38:37 GMT -5
I can't watch - Jack, call me on my cell and let me know how it turns out
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Post by jack on Jul 16, 2010 11:39:06 GMT -5
checking in - iwm also at S, second touch of downtrend F we b/o on Tues; obwiously a break into it be wery bad, hold then uptrend still in play You meant "uptwend" didn't you?
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Post by jack on Jul 16, 2010 11:42:43 GMT -5
I can't watch - Jack, call me on my cell and let me know how it turns out Make sure you get to the Guggenheim while you are there Elle! ...and the Met ...and the Whitney Goodness there's just so much to see in the greatest city on this Earth.
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Post by sp7015 on Jul 16, 2010 11:42:57 GMT -5
Does aapl stock bounce or tank after press conference?
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