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Post by deadmoney95 on Jul 16, 2010 9:26:13 GMT -5
Why single out Carl, almost everyone has been wrong (Oscar, Alphatrends, Cobra, Murphy), and therein lies the most important lesson. I admire what those guys try to do on a daily basis, but its folly imo. OK, so bottom channel holding so far. Tick moving up to +700. Touch and go. i agree. no secret i admire the hell out of carl, and am amazed by how often his ranges are correct. recently, i am equally amazed by how routinely he gets burned when he actually announces a trade -- selling at a loss, and then often watching the market immediately climb back up without him. i feel like he's had a bad run of such luck of late.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 16, 2010 9:34:43 GMT -5
Woof. Rejected at yellow line at 108. First try. Could follow that lower rail down to S2. We consolidated for an hour yesterday before moving up a bit.
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Post by cosmic on Jul 16, 2010 9:36:33 GMT -5
Why single out Carl, almost everyone has been wrong (Oscar, Alphatrends, Cobra, Murphy), and therein lies the most important lesson. I admire what those guys try to do on a daily basis, but its folly imo. OK, so bottom channel holding so far. Tick moving up to +700. Touch and go. No I know, it was just that someone called out that he'd capitulate and minutes later he did. I'm just finding it humorous is all...
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 16, 2010 9:38:34 GMT -5
Carl - nice analytics but chooses trades strangely. I do like that he cuts losses fast, and tries to find good trades.
Oscar - very old school analytics (he was trained by Murphy and they are very similar) but he trades really well. He frequently has the wrong idea but makes money anyway.
It's like peanut butter and jelly; you need both to make a sandwich.
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Post by jack on Jul 16, 2010 9:45:29 GMT -5
Carl - nice analytics but chooses trades strangely. I do like that he cuts losses fast, and tries to find good trades. Oscar - very old school analytics (he was trained by Murphy and they are very similar) but he trades really well. He frequently has the wrong idea but makes money anyway. It's like peanut butter and jelly; you need both to make a sandwich. nevermind
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Post by jack on Jul 16, 2010 9:54:08 GMT -5
macds positive on xlf's & spy's 1 & 5min now...sorta weird imo.
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Post by Clinton SPX on Jul 16, 2010 9:55:50 GMT -5
Who's Carl? And I think he's smart for capitulating.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 16, 2010 9:58:31 GMT -5
Jpm - broke out of down channel but is now stuck below R and the top rail. It's wedging out. Rising 50hma is first S. Uploaded with ImageShack.usImage Shack is running its Apple IIe server again today.
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Post by Clinton SPX on Jul 16, 2010 9:59:12 GMT -5
Bull flag on FAZ looks like it wants to pop, I bet it will at .......11:10 hehe
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Post by cosmic on Jul 16, 2010 10:02:22 GMT -5
Who's Carl? And I think he's smart for capitulating. Carl Futia
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Post by maxi on Jul 16, 2010 10:17:51 GMT -5
GM just got up. Yesterday Timber asked me why I don't buy stocks anymore. Todays action is why! LOL....
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 16, 2010 10:18:24 GMT -5
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 16, 2010 10:21:05 GMT -5
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Post by deadmoney95 on Jul 16, 2010 10:22:40 GMT -5
Carl thinks we're in for a major hurting:
Today's low is now estimated to be 1064 from Carl Futia by Carl Futia
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Post by Clinton SPX on Jul 16, 2010 10:23:23 GMT -5
Carl shorting now most likely
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Post by maxi on Jul 16, 2010 10:24:21 GMT -5
Thank you that was excellent...
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 16, 2010 10:24:29 GMT -5
trin is a high for the week. Hitting 5.
The lower rail now intersects with S2. That would be S.
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Post by cosmic on Jul 16, 2010 10:25:24 GMT -5
I don't recall Carl ever publishing a short position on the mini... he might do it but I don't think so.
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Post by cosmic on Jul 16, 2010 10:26:14 GMT -5
I will say this... on my Doom-hedge, I almost dumped it by Clinton made me wait until 11:10, and now I'm glad I did.
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Post by maxi on Jul 16, 2010 10:29:35 GMT -5
Okay pretend I am a complete novice. Would anyone go into drv or tza or faz now even after this drop? Are we convinced this is going to keep going down?
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Post by jack on Jul 16, 2010 10:35:46 GMT -5
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Post by maxi on Jul 16, 2010 10:37:18 GMT -5
More about TLT and Yen........
Note the second day of the gap up in the yen, treasuries and the vix/vxx were slow to respond in kind. Normally if yen sprinting higher, market liquidity generally tends to dry up. Often I see that treasuries lead, the last two days have been somewhat different. TLT matched the FXY fairly closely all day. Today the yen popped and everything just sat there for a bit. Then the market tanked. So generally speaking I like the treasuries as the better general tool for getting a heads up on market direction. However, when you see wild fluctuations in the currencies out of the middle of nowhere...that usually is due to big money being shifted around in a hurry and normally is a huge warning flag that a sharp reversal may be coming.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 16, 2010 10:39:07 GMT -5
Yen - d/t. This is the risk off trade. Uploaded with ImageShack.us
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 16, 2010 10:43:18 GMT -5
Copper - sweaty time. Very weak. Is this the bounce pt? Uploaded with ImageShack.us
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Post by maxi on Jul 16, 2010 10:45:56 GMT -5
TLT just racing up. I have all charts with big ugly red candles....
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 16, 2010 10:46:51 GMT -5
Cons - copper breaking down, USTs and yen breaking higher. Spy daily trend is down. Not good.
Pros - copper and Yen at key pivots. Spy 60' trend is still higher H and L.
Take your pick.
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Post by maxi on Jul 16, 2010 10:48:12 GMT -5
Another good quote from someone I respect:
Emotions are terrible thing. Look at all those hype on VVUS, ARNA yesterday. People are asking where we go, 20-30-40 dollars, "I am rich", and so on.... No, no, and no. Never fall in love with stock. I propose we adopt "hate strategy". Let's HATE all stocks. Hate them when they go down, they are losing you money, hate them, and sell them ASAP. Hate them if they go up. Why? Because they are not making you enough money, they are not going high enough. Hate them then they go up, and sell them into the hype, or sell in smaller lots, or sell covered calls, or buy protective puts. Whatever, but hate them, never love them....... Think about this. go for hate strategy till we have ( if, and when ) new true bull leg..... This will not happen till banks are regulated, government shrink, stop pouring money in to the pits ( incl wars ), jobs are created, inflation replace deflation, and interest goes up........
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 16, 2010 10:52:57 GMT -5
Spy - now S2 and the bottom rail of the 3 day channel. A low tick here would be awesome.
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Post by drtracyb on Jul 16, 2010 10:57:47 GMT -5
I missed the memo - what's the reason for the sell-off? OPEX? Obama talking? BP?
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Post by maxi on Jul 16, 2010 10:59:05 GMT -5
Uploaded with ImageShack.usDouble click it to see clearly once u get the chart
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