Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 15, 2010 18:42:33 GMT -5
Spy did just what it needed to do - close above the 50dma for the second day in a row and continue a consolidation pattern after the big run up. That's a bullish candle: long lower wick with the body in the top 1/4. The rising 5dma has been tested and rejected twice the past two days.
Breadth on the nyse ended neutral after being neg by more than 6:1. Nq breadth in vol actually ended pos. As a result, nysi has reached the moment of truth where a decent day will send it positive for the first time since mid May.
Vix closed green but that's a high wick on that candle. Vix closed near the open and nearly 10% off the hod. It's still under a falling 5dma. The trend remains down s-t.
Most stocks on my list remain above their 20dma and many are above their 50dma as well. The more days above, the sooner those MAs will slope positive, giving a trend change credence.
The biggest watchout right now is the bond market. Overbought and still TNX fell below 3% today. It closed close to its lod. The weekly TLT chart shows strength (RSI, MA crosses) above a strong S line, imo.
Cobra - According to Stock Trader’s Almanac, July expiration day (that’s tomorrow), Dow down 6 of last 9.
Caldaro - After yesterday's mixed close, following a six day winning streak, it was not surprising to see the market pullback today. When the SPX hit 1081 at 10:30 it marked the second largest pullback since this rally began from 1011. The largest pullback was a 25 point event last week, (SPX 1043-1018). The pullback created a slightly oversold condition and the market then rallied into the close. The OEW 1090 pivot, while breeched earlier today, continues to provide support. Overhead resistance remains at SPX 1100 and then the OEW 1107 pivot. Once this pivot is cleared to the upside we should get an OEW uptrend confirmation. GS, btw, did just that today.
Doug Kass - i am selling most of my long trading rentals into the tri rumors (GS, BP and AAPL) and market ramp.
Bespoke - An ETF becomes overbought when it moves more than one standard deviation above its 50-day moving average (DMA). The Sweden stock market ETF (EWD) is the most overbought of the group, followed by agricultural commodities (DBA), and the Swiss Franc (FXF). The British Pound (FXB), the Euro (FXE), and the Yen (FXY) are all overbought, along with the inverse US Dollar fund (UDN). Along with long-term Treasury ETFs being overbought, the junk bond ETF (HYG) and investment grade corporate bond ETF (LQD) are also up there.
Real estate - read this: www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/07/the-4-trillion-dollar-question-2/
Breadth on the nyse ended neutral after being neg by more than 6:1. Nq breadth in vol actually ended pos. As a result, nysi has reached the moment of truth where a decent day will send it positive for the first time since mid May.
Vix closed green but that's a high wick on that candle. Vix closed near the open and nearly 10% off the hod. It's still under a falling 5dma. The trend remains down s-t.
Most stocks on my list remain above their 20dma and many are above their 50dma as well. The more days above, the sooner those MAs will slope positive, giving a trend change credence.
The biggest watchout right now is the bond market. Overbought and still TNX fell below 3% today. It closed close to its lod. The weekly TLT chart shows strength (RSI, MA crosses) above a strong S line, imo.
Cobra - According to Stock Trader’s Almanac, July expiration day (that’s tomorrow), Dow down 6 of last 9.
Caldaro - After yesterday's mixed close, following a six day winning streak, it was not surprising to see the market pullback today. When the SPX hit 1081 at 10:30 it marked the second largest pullback since this rally began from 1011. The largest pullback was a 25 point event last week, (SPX 1043-1018). The pullback created a slightly oversold condition and the market then rallied into the close. The OEW 1090 pivot, while breeched earlier today, continues to provide support. Overhead resistance remains at SPX 1100 and then the OEW 1107 pivot. Once this pivot is cleared to the upside we should get an OEW uptrend confirmation. GS, btw, did just that today.
Doug Kass - i am selling most of my long trading rentals into the tri rumors (GS, BP and AAPL) and market ramp.
Bespoke - An ETF becomes overbought when it moves more than one standard deviation above its 50-day moving average (DMA). The Sweden stock market ETF (EWD) is the most overbought of the group, followed by agricultural commodities (DBA), and the Swiss Franc (FXF). The British Pound (FXB), the Euro (FXE), and the Yen (FXY) are all overbought, along with the inverse US Dollar fund (UDN). Along with long-term Treasury ETFs being overbought, the junk bond ETF (HYG) and investment grade corporate bond ETF (LQD) are also up there.
Real estate - read this: www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/07/the-4-trillion-dollar-question-2/