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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 6, 2010 22:05:17 GMT -5
Today Spy rallied up to the key 104.3 year old pivot and failed. It also failed to hold above the declining 5 dma. That continues to be big R. Price action was a woof. Market is sending a very mixed message: - We have GLD and DX down and Euro up - this implies that risk trade is on (positive for equities). - But we also have TNX down and Yen up - this is the risk off trade (negative for equities). - Vix is in the middle; trend seems to be up (200dma rising) but perhaps its topped since it closed today below 50dma. - Copper eked out a gain today and has been in an up trend for one month. Similarly, foreign equities have largely been outperforming US equities recently. Finally, sentiment (see below) is leaning bearish. These are net positives. Pundits are all bears. Everyone should have seen that Lord Prechter was featured prominently in the Sunday NYT. So there are your contrarian indicators. Bespoke - At its current level, the S&P 500 Financials sector has entered a new bear market (a 20% decline that was preceded by a rally of at least 20%). Below we highlight performance over various time periods for the S&P 500 and its ten sectors. As shown, Materials, Energy, Industrials, and Consumer Discretionary are all also dangerously close to bear market levels. The S&P 500 is down 15.73% from its bull market high. Unsurprisingly, it's the defensive sectors that have held up the best since the market peaked on April 23rd, if declines of 9% to 14% can be charecterized as holding up. www.bespokeinvest.com/Cobra - Neither bulls nor bears have much edge for tomorrow when SPX down 5 days the rebound for 1 day. So I have no idea about whether the rebound was over or not. However, chances are pretty good that the 07/01 low will be revisited eventually. Caldaro - Today's activity was certainly not constructive short term. It still appears there will be a retest of the 1007 pivot before Int. wave B gets underway. Alphatrends - Spy is holding right above its vwap from 3/09 (102.3). If it breaks below, it seems likely that it will complete a 50% retracement to about 95. Conversely, if it can break north of 105, then a more sustained bounce becomes likely. There is no evidence of such strength yet. Tickerville - video here: www.tickerville.com/index.php/site/comments/market_fizzles/Sentiment - Hope is never a good strategy, but hope is all the bulls seem to have left. This past week's failed signal is not a good sign for the bulls and could be particularly ominous. This is how bear markets start. On the other hand, there is always hope that the failed signal will just be a fake out. It has happened in the past, and such fake outs have led to very strong upward moves. This scenario seems less likely. Yet, the "dumb money" indicator has turned bearish and in general, this is a bullish signal. However, within the context of a failed signal, we need more supporting evidence, such as bullishness from the "smart money" or from company insiders, before we can make the call for our next "fat pitch". thetechnicaltakedotcom.blogspot.com/2010/07/investor-sentiment-there-is-always-hope.html
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Post by Dualism on Jul 7, 2010 0:16:07 GMT -5
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Post by kryptos2009 on Jul 7, 2010 1:05:45 GMT -5
Here is the PP Daily Thread (PPDT) data. XLF PP=13.65 MP=13.75 R1=13.84 MP=13.97 R2=14.09 MP=14.31 R3=14.53 MP=14.75 R4=14.97 MP=13.53 S1=13.40 MP=13.31 S2=13.21 MP=12.99 S3=12.77 MP=12.55 S4=12.33 O=13.82 H=13.89 L=13.45 C=13.6 FAS PP=18.51 MP=18.90 R1=19.28 MP=19.77 R2=20.26 MP=21.13 R3=22.01 MP=22.88 R4=23.76 MP=18.02 S1=17.53 MP=17.15 S2=16.76 MP=15.88 S3=15.01 MP=14.13 S4=13.26 O=19.15 H=19.48 L=17.73 C=18.31 FAZ PP=17.95 MP=18.45 R1=18.94 MP=19.34 R2=19.74 MP=20.64 R3=21.53 MP=22.43 R4=23.32 MP=17.55 S1=17.15 MP=16.66 S2=16.16 MP=15.27 S3=14.37 MP=13.48 S4=12.58 O=17.3 H=18.75 L=16.96 C=18.14 SPY PP=103.04 MP=103.62 R1=104.20 MP=104.87 R2=105.53 MP=106.78 R3=108.02 MP=109.27 R4=110.51 MP=102.38 S1=101.71 MP=101.13 S2=100.55 MP=99.31 S3=98.06 MP=96.82 S4=95.57 O=103.64 H=104.37 L=101.88 C=102.87 SPG PP=78.32 MP=79.24 R1=80.16 MP=81.61 R2=83.05 MP=85.41 R3=87.78 MP=90.14 R4=92.51 MP=76.88 S1=75.43 MP=74.51 S2=73.59 MP=71.22 S3=68.86 MP=66.49 S4=64.13 O=80.71 H=81.2 L=76.47 C=77.28 GS PP=132.57 MP=133.33 R1=134.08 MP=134.99 R2=135.89 MP=137.55 R3=139.21 MP=140.87 R4=142.53 MP=131.67 S1=130.76 MP=130.01 S2=129.25 MP=127.59 S3=125.93 MP=124.27 S4=122.61 O=133.74 H=134.39 L=131.07 C=132.26 JPM PP=36.36 MP=36.61 R1=36.85 MP=37.12 R2=37.38 MP=37.89 R3=38.40 MP=38.91 R4=39.42 MP=36.10 S1=35.83 MP=35.59 S2=35.34 MP=34.83 S3=34.32 MP=33.81 S4=33.30 O=36.69 H=36.88 L=35.86 C=36.33 MS PP=23.03 MP=23.20 R1=23.36 MP=23.55 R2=23.74 MP=24.10 R3=24.45 MP=24.81 R4=25.16 MP=22.84 S1=22.65 MP=22.49 S2=22.32 MP=21.97 S3=21.61 MP=21.26 S4=20.90 O=23.25 H=23.42 L=22.71 C=22.97 C PP=3.80 MP=3.85 R1=3.89 MP=3.94 R2=3.98 MP=4.07 R3=4.16 MP=4.25 R4=4.34 MP=3.76 S1=3.71 MP=3.67 S2=3.62 MP=3.53 S3=3.44 MP=3.35 S4=3.26 O=3.87 H=3.9 L=3.72 C=3.79 VIX PP=29.59 MP=30.40 R1=31.21 MP=32.00 R2=32.78 MP=34.37 R3=35.97 MP=37.56 R4=39.16 MP=28.81 S1=28.02 MP=27.21 S2=26.40 MP=24.80 S3=23.21 MP=21.61 S4=20.02 O=28.82 H=31.15 L=27.96 C=29.65 UUP PP=24.48 MP=24.52 R1=24.56 MP=24.60 R2=24.64 MP=24.72 R3=24.80 MP=24.88 R4=24.96 MP=24.44 S1=24.40 MP=24.36 S2=24.32 MP=24.24 S3=24.16 MP=24.08 S4=24.00 O=24.5 H=24.55 L=24.39 C=24.49 FROM: www.econoday.comEconomic Events & Analysis - 7/07/2010 Wednesday7:00 AM ET MBA Purchase Applications 7:45 AM ET ICSC-Goldman Store Sales 8:55 AM ET Redbook 11:30 AM ET 4-Week Bill Auction 3:00 PM ET Treasury STRIPS 3:30 PM ET Narayan Kocherlakota Speaks 7:15 PM ET Jeffrey Lacker Speaks NOTE: The previous days OHLC data for todays PPDT was gathered from finance.yahoo.com for each individual stock by a series of webquerys built into a spreadsheet. The formulas used by the www.mypivots.com website to create the Pivot Points were found in the sites help files. The formulas were built into the spreadsheet which acts on the previous days OHLC data gathered from Yahoo. The Pivot Points were created using the formulas from www.mypivots.com but NOT by using the site. Please let me know if you find any errors in the data. Use of this data is at your own risk.
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Post by ask2lern on Jul 7, 2010 6:05:57 GMT -5
Morning gang………………….Here are the pivots………………………
GOLD
R4 1258.30 midpoint 1248.15 R3 1238.00 midpoint 1227.85 R2 1217.70 Midpoint 1212.05 R1 1206.40 midpoint 1201.90
PP 1197.40
midpoint 1191.75 S1 1186.10 midpoint 1181.60 S2 1177.10 midpoint 1166.95 S3 1156.80 midpoint 1146.65 S4 1136.50
SILVER
R4 19.19 midpoint 18.96 R3 18.74 midpoint 18.51 R2 18.29 midpoint 18.18 R1 18.07 midpoint 17.96
PP 17.84
midpoint 17.73 S1 17.62 midpoint 17.51 S2 17.39 midpoint 17.16 S3 16.94 midpoint 16.71 S4 16.49
IMW
R3 63.65 R2 62.57 R1 60.81
PP 59.73
S1 57.97 S2 56.89 S3 55.13
TNA
R4 48.51 midpoint 46.15 R3 43.78 midpoint 41.42 R2 39.05 midpoint 37.59 R1 36.12 midpoint 35.22
PP 34.32
midpoint 32.86 S1 31.39 midpoint 30.49 S2 29.59 midpoint 27.23 S3 24.86 midpoint 22.50 S4 20.13
TZA
R4 12.22 Midpoint 11.63 R3 11.04 midpoint 10.45 R2 9.86 midpoint 9.64 R1 9.42 midpoint 9.05
PP 8.68
midpoint 8.46 S1 8.24 midpoint 7.87 S2 7.50 midpoint 6.91 S3 6.32 midpoint 5.73 S4 5.14
SDS
R3 40.56 R2 39.57 R1 38.71 PP 37.72
S1 36.86 S2 35.87 S3 35.01
………………………..GLTA
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Post by ask2lern on Jul 7, 2010 6:07:22 GMT -5
From www.optionmonster.comRussell 2000 falls below support again July 7, 2010 Wed 12:16 AM CT After an amazing upside romp yesterday morning, which saw the indexes pop by as much as 2 percent, the markets could not hold their gains. A slow bleed throughout the day ended with fractional gains for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100. The reversal was not bullish. Distribution appeared to continue through the session, which was a concern mentioned yesterday morning. But for the Russell 2000 the day was worse. It was the only index to break support at the close, though the S&P 500 did so intraday. As a result, only the Russell 2000 gets a new level, which is new support from the lows of February. Nasdaq 100 (NDX) First support is at 1712.89, the February low. First resistance is now at 1752.31. For the Nasdaq 100 Index Tracking Stock (QQQQ) first support is at $42.12. First resistance is at $43.23. S&P 500 (SPX) First support is now at 1019.95. First resistance is at 1040. For the Standard & Poor's Depository Receipts (SPY) first support is at $101.99. First resistance is at $104.38. Russell 2000 (RUT) First support is now at 580.49, the low from February. First resistance is now at 636.72. For the iShares Trust Russell 2000 Index Fund (IWM) first support is at $58. First resistance is at $63.70. By: Bryan McCormick ........................GL
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Post by abdogman on Jul 7, 2010 7:29:06 GMT -5
Good Morning Gang ....Thankyou for the info ......back for the open .....GLTA
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 7, 2010 7:39:10 GMT -5
I saw an interesting chart on the correlation of gold and the DX last night. It is very rare. For what it is worth, the last time they correlated was 3/09.
World Cup: Germany v Espana at 230p. This is like a finals match. Winner plays NL Sunday.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 7, 2010 7:57:51 GMT -5
Carl - Today's range estimate is 1010-1035. I think this market is scraping bottom and the worst I see on the downside is 990. Strength above 1050 would mean the low has been established and that a new up leg in the bull market has started.
Uh oh, the downside is sliding down. Yesterday, btw, he nailed the day's range perfectly.
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Post by ccash04 on Jul 7, 2010 8:24:48 GMT -5
Not that anyone listens to analysts but:
JP Morgan's Khan cuts Google price target from $639 to $566, 2Q EPS estimate from $6.61 to $6.38
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 7, 2010 8:25:31 GMT -5
TNX weaker o/n. Trying to get back to the yesterday close. 2.93%. This needs to strengthen before equities make any solid move higher.
Similarly, the DX has been strengthening since yesterday's close.
Copper futures higher. Lumber lower.
Confused?
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 7, 2010 8:31:57 GMT -5
I keep looking for Google to make a bottom. I thought 440, now looking closer to 400. The daily and weekly have nothing going for them that I can see, but let me know if you something positive.
And they're off!
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Post by abdogman on Jul 7, 2010 8:33:42 GMT -5
xlf 13.74 on 1m
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Post by ccash04 on Jul 7, 2010 8:39:56 GMT -5
If GOOG holds this 435, it might be worth a look at.. I usually only play GOOG options around OpEx week. However, its been red the past 13 days and its in huge oversold territory. OBV looks to be flattening and RSI flattened and turned up ever so slightly. As I am typing this I am talking myself into a small GOOG position.
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Post by abdogman on Jul 7, 2010 8:43:08 GMT -5
macd for xlf fas fas returning to near 0/0 xlf 13.75 BB's spread
all on 1m
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Post by jack on Jul 7, 2010 8:44:07 GMT -5
Looks to me like "deja vu all over again." (Yogi Berra - US baseball player, coach, & manager (1925 - ) G'mornin Gang! The chipmunks have ganged up and have totally defeated my squirrel trap. I didn't realize there was such inter-species cooperation going on here I wouldna believed it if I hadn't seen it myself.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 7, 2010 8:45:51 GMT -5
Spy - for the first time since mid June, the 20ma on the 60' has a positive slope. Also, the vwap is trending up for the first time since mid June. The PP and R1 are well placed today. The 5dma is 102.9. USO is helping; up 1%.
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Post by abdogman on Jul 7, 2010 8:46:31 GMT -5
BB' moving in slowly on 1m for xlf fas faz macd neg alst 4 mins for xlf fas xlf at 13.74
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Post by ccash04 on Jul 7, 2010 8:49:15 GMT -5
One more quick note on GOOG 3 out of the past 4 earnings its rose into earnings. Out of the last 4 earnings only one did it post a gain which was small. Other times it sold off so beware of holding GOOG into the earnings (July 15).
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Post by abdogman on Jul 7, 2010 8:50:01 GMT -5
BB's squeeze on xlf fas faz xlf 13.71
all on 1m
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Post by abdogman on Jul 7, 2010 8:51:29 GMT -5
BB's closing on eur 1m and vix 1m
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Post by jack on Jul 7, 2010 8:58:37 GMT -5
SPYs OBV & Momo nice...fins lagging
Snap's CAT barometer doing well too...
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Post by abdogman on Jul 7, 2010 8:58:42 GMT -5
BB's still squeezing on 1m for xlf fas faz and vix
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 7, 2010 8:59:06 GMT -5
Jpm - 37 was the key S that was broken last week. Now back testing. Need a close above imo.
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Post by abdogman on Jul 7, 2010 9:00:10 GMT -5
vix 1m BB's spreading slowly and vix is on the lower channel moving down slightly
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Post by abdogman on Jul 7, 2010 9:02:11 GMT -5
BB's on eur 1m spreading and eur is rising on 1m
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 7, 2010 9:04:46 GMT -5
Yesterdays hod came with a tick at 900; we have tick 900 now. We must be close to Carl's hod range as well. On Spy, 5 day down trend line is here (series of lower Hs). Key.
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Post by abdogman on Jul 7, 2010 9:04:59 GMT -5
BB's on 1m xlf fas faz spreading slowly xlf and fas on upper channel xlf at 13.82 on 1m macd pos xlf fas on 1m
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 7, 2010 9:09:12 GMT -5
here's my messy and confusing Spy chart (60'). Note the wedge (blue) we need to break out of. You can see how key the yellow line at 105 is. Uploaded with ImageShack.us
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Post by abdogman on Jul 7, 2010 9:11:29 GMT -5
drop in vix on 1m leveled out eur on 1m now dropping macd's on 1m for xlf fas faz 0/0 xlf at 13.84
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 7, 2010 9:13:37 GMT -5
ForEx lady on stocktwits.tv now. I recommend the show at 12p. And then Alphatrends is live at the close. There's your daily commercial.
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