Mikey
Broker/Dealer
Posts: 581
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Post by Mikey on Mar 3, 2010 15:38:14 GMT -5
VIX is going to explode tomorrow if that number is bad. Check out this pattern - when the VIX reaches oversold conditions on the RSI/MACD, it starts a bouncing process that is usually followed a few days later by a blow-out move. We've been deeply oversold on this daily VIX chart for the past week, but you'll notice the negative divergence between the dropping VIX and the MACD and RSI getting "less negative." It may take a few days to materialize, depending on the data, but I think the market itself is a ticking time bomb and that VIX is heading from $19 to at least $24 to test that 200 day MA, a 25% move. Because the VXX is such a crappy instrument, I'd expect it to only make a 20% move from $25 to $30, which is its descending 50dma, which it has not cleared since April 2009.
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Post by elle on Mar 3, 2010 15:39:17 GMT -5
Si
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Post by elle on Mar 3, 2010 15:39:55 GMT -5
Could be a fake tho to sell the close, ticks?
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Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 3, 2010 15:42:02 GMT -5
The low tick (-1280), the lowest in at least 10 sessions, exhausted sellers, thus the bounce. We might actually be seeing some dip buyers coming in - tick has moved up into the 800s. My guess (emphasis added) is that we have a chink in the armor - the market has moved up without any sell programs of size for 2 weeks or more. Sellers saw a reason to sell today; we'll probably see follow through in the coming days. Trigger will hopefully keep you apprised of tick Th and Fr.
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Post by merrillstanley on Mar 3, 2010 15:42:50 GMT -5
no imbalances to report for the second day in a row....markets are liquid
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Post by elle on Mar 3, 2010 15:52:27 GMT -5
We'll miss you, Uka, stay safe.
DDSS did move outside, but sideways, so I stretched it to include. But I'll be out break even at 1.48 - would rather buy back than give away any more $$.
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Post by merrillstanley on Mar 3, 2010 15:53:32 GMT -5
UK, cya next week, enjoy
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Post by ask2lern on Mar 3, 2010 15:57:01 GMT -5
Safe travels UK......thanks again for your efforts and contributions......l............GL
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Post by elle on Mar 3, 2010 15:59:01 GMT -5
my, my was just those "desperate buyers" who love to buy stocks at high prices in overbought market
Don't know if job numbers will matter if bad. I hope so, but still remember when the market rallied on 10.2
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Mikey
Broker/Dealer
Posts: 581
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Post by Mikey on Mar 3, 2010 16:00:46 GMT -5
See below I've copied in the 15-minute chart of the VXX - you'll see that the volume has been consistently high all day with 7-8 bars on the 15m chart exceeding 400k volume (has been only 1-2, usually the open/close) I'm extra bullish on VXX (and bearish on the market) with a close above the rising 20ma, which is now at $25.16 - the MA line has turned up and been tested, holding a couple times, which is pretty bullish since it's been in such an awful downtrend Volume on this last 15-min bar is high, it's on pace to trade over 9M shares for the day, which is the most since Feb 4-5, when it went up from $29.13 on 2/3 to $32.65 on 2/5, a 12% run. Have a meeting at 4pm have a good night all!! Seeya bright & early tomorrow!!
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Post by triggerhappy on Mar 3, 2010 16:03:46 GMT -5
All the best UK. I will give the board my best effort for TICK while you are away...
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Post by elle on Mar 3, 2010 16:04:39 GMT -5
bye, bye Mikey, and all, have a good night
now Trigger has ticks, not me, unh-unh, don't want ticks
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Post by elle on Mar 3, 2010 16:07:54 GMT -5
the...."eye"....has....spoken....
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Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 3, 2010 16:13:13 GMT -5
Candle summary: Spy - second black bar in row; two crows. Grim. Qs - ditto. Trans (DJT) - ditto, plus high wick reversal, plus flat top. Grim grim. Small caps (IWM) - doji at double top. Closed above prior high. Best of the bunch, although looks like indecision. Semis (SMH) - two black bars, second below 50dma. Very grim. FXI - ditto Spy. USO - low wick reversal after yesterdays high wick reversal. Closed above flat top. I think bullish. GLD – Like USO, green candle above green candle. Challenging Jan highs. I think bullish. UUP - broke below last 8 day trading range with a big red candle. Wick down so could rally tomorrow but overall looks headed to 200dma at 23.2. Continues to be the joker in the deck. XLF - high wick black bar. VIX - two near dojis, one red, one green. Looks like similar lows. Might chop around but I think it's close to a bottom.
gl
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Post by triggerhappy on Mar 3, 2010 16:15:29 GMT -5
Elle. Too funny :-)
Good night all!
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Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 3, 2010 16:15:33 GMT -5
Carl F - was holding a unit from last week. Sold it to be all out. Made 20pts on the original hold. Well done. But he's out, and actions speak louder than words.
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Post by merrillstanley on Mar 3, 2010 16:18:00 GMT -5
tomorrow should be interesting
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Post by elle on Mar 3, 2010 16:27:58 GMT -5
Uka, thanks for the great wrap-up on your way out the door.
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Mikey
Broker/Dealer
Posts: 581
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Post by Mikey on Mar 3, 2010 16:55:29 GMT -5
Yeah that candle summary is awesome!!!
Thanks UK you get exalt #2 for the day
Actually I'll give Elle one for being the feminine voice of reason in the room
Anyone heard from Cash?
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Post by ask2lern on Mar 3, 2010 17:02:34 GMT -5
Yeah that candle summary is awesome!!! Thanks UK you get exalt #2 for the day Actually I'll give Elle one for being the feminine voice of reason in the room Anyone heard from Cash? No cash and no Jack today...............Hmmmmmm.....I hit all the regs on this thread with Exalts today......................see you on the other side of today.....................lets just hope it is the right side..............
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Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 3, 2010 18:11:48 GMT -5
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Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 3, 2010 18:23:49 GMT -5
Black bars in Spy (from Cobra). If nothing else, notice how rare it is to have two in a row. Ominous.
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Post by elle on Mar 3, 2010 18:46:01 GMT -5
Killer chart.
For all we know you could be of the fair sex, since you don't have a gender.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 3, 2010 18:58:11 GMT -5
Killer chart. For all we know you could be of the fair sex, since you don't have a gender. I may have to give you ticks, Squirrel.
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Post by elle on Mar 3, 2010 19:06:58 GMT -5
It's a CHIPMUNK. Bon Voyage.
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Post by elle on Mar 3, 2010 19:09:29 GMT -5
I think we should invite Cobra to join our thread now and then. He was on the YMB once.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 3, 2010 19:41:12 GMT -5
Good idea. Then he can berate me taking his good ideas and reposting them.
I'm curious how all these black bars play out.
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Post by elle on Mar 3, 2010 20:50:09 GMT -5
Since he publishes it free and you always credit him, I don't see that being a problem.
Let's face it, why would he would want to hang here - oh, he could sell a few books and we do have wicked gonad humor.
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