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Post by triggerhappy on Mar 3, 2010 13:39:29 GMT -5
Cue the cross-dressers?
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Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 3, 2010 13:46:12 GMT -5
Uka, you're a scientist? Or a teacher? CIA
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Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 3, 2010 13:49:48 GMT -5
Carl F update:
Here is an hourly chart showing day session e-mini trading. The market is progressing through a stack of 36 point boxes (blue rectangles). It has moved into the third box and the bottom of this box near 1113 should now serve as support.
The upper green trend channel line meets the top of the third box around March 10 in the 1145-50 zone (green oval). The January 11 top was at 1148 (horizontal red dash line). I think a reaction of 20 points or so is likely to materialize then, but that any such break will be only a brief interruption of a move to 1200 that I see developing.
I have noticed a lot of commentary that cites the low volume, low activity in this phase of the upswing as a reason why the ES should soon reverse and head much lower. But as you can see on the chart above the market is creeping higher, showing a very regular sequence of higher lows and higher highs. Moreover, the advancing issues number that I follow (see my chart page which I link to on the right hand side of this blog) are very strong. In this context I interpret the low volume as a sign that longer time frame sellers are not finding current prices very attractive. Volume will only increase noticeably when these sellers come to market and this will require higher prices than we have seen thus far.
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Post by elle on Mar 3, 2010 13:51:57 GMT -5
SPG double top, looking ugly, but SPiGs can fly whenever they like
Mikey, I would have bet anything after your analysis it would go to 63. Of course this still could be a gigantic double shoulder H&S, but maybe just looking too hard for pattern.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 3, 2010 14:04:48 GMT -5
UUP is spending more time than normal consolidating. In the past, when it has consolidated for several hours after a fall, it was not a bear flag but base building before a reversal higher. Just a watch out. As usual, I'm making this up.*
(The 50 and 200dma are close enough that a touch before reversal still seems odds on).
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Post by ask2lern on Mar 3, 2010 14:15:11 GMT -5
I know that they are not highly regarded but today on the Fast Money call the close 4 of the 5 said they would be sellers into the close....they expect the same as yesterday.................FWIW
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Post by triggerhappy on Mar 3, 2010 14:17:52 GMT -5
Some tute selling?
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Post by ask2lern on Mar 3, 2010 14:19:07 GMT -5
Not 1 SPY March 110 put traded in the last 10 minutes................HMMMMMMMM
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Post by triggerhappy on Mar 3, 2010 14:21:16 GMT -5
There she goes...
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Mikey
Broker/Dealer
Posts: 581
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Post by Mikey on Mar 3, 2010 14:21:59 GMT -5
Covered my AKS at $23.1 and jumped into more VXX at $25.13
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Post by triggerhappy on Mar 3, 2010 14:22:32 GMT -5
I have TICK -950. What do you have UK?
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Post by elle on Mar 3, 2010 14:24:10 GMT -5
short TSO
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Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 3, 2010 14:26:37 GMT -5
Yes, tick -930, the first sub -900 tick since last week. A/D has come down but is still very positive.
We have a lot of black bars forming. Two in a row is called black crows (or something like that). I'll update the candle pattern at eod.
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Mikey
Broker/Dealer
Posts: 581
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Post by Mikey on Mar 3, 2010 14:31:44 GMT -5
Current holdings: 175% short X at $55.01 cost avg (was 85% at $56.22 this morning) 125% VXX at $25.73 cost avg (was 25% at $27.59 this morning)
I was about 200% margined this morning and generally run in that 150-200% range - don't think I've ever gotten up to 300% before!! Today I unloaded my AAPL short, AKS short, and CREE short with 1-2% losses - hopefully improving my margined positions in X/VXX above, which do not have % margin limitations like the other 3 do. This should be an interesting experiment...so far, so good.
Will post the chart that got me into VXX in a minute
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Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 3, 2010 14:33:07 GMT -5
Trin went from 0.6 (mega bull) to 1.0 (neutral) in 3m flat. That means buy vol is now equal to issues. Second sub -900 tick. Goes over -1000 and the odds are we have an oversold bounce. Stays in a 0 to -900 range and we have a possible intraday reversal.*
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Mikey
Broker/Dealer
Posts: 581
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Post by Mikey on Mar 3, 2010 14:38:27 GMT -5
(I had this set up about an hour ago and my PC froze...sucks I couldn't have gotten this up earlier, but am happy my Firefox saved what I had put in the message box, that usually doesn't happen) Below is a 10-minute chart of the VXX. You may have noticed I haven't commented much on the volume in the VXX lately - and that's because it's been less than stellar. I am seeing some signs of accumulation (see volume spikes at the lows) today though - which is what I saw at the start of the last market downtrend. Average VXX daily volume (past 3 months) = 4.7M Today's VXX volume (with 90 mins to go) = 5.3M Last 5 sessions: 3/2 - 5.47M 3/1 - 4.76M 2/26 - 4.66M 2/25 - 6.93M 2/24 - 4.62M If I get inspired, I may try to develop a Cobra-style chart showing the VXX "calm before the storm" which precedes market drops - those first couple days where the VXX volume has ticked up definitely clued me in to upcoming volatility - it's just a matter of proving out the data to make sure my hypothesis is correct. SPY distribution at tops + VXX accumulation at bottoms = Down we go
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Post by triggerhappy on Mar 3, 2010 14:44:05 GMT -5
Yes, tick -930, the first sub -900 tick since last week. A/D has come down but is still very positive. We have a lot of black bars forming. Two in a row is called black crows (or something like that). I'll update the candle pattern at eod. Thanks UK for the corellation. Gotta love the black crows... ;-)
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Post by triggerhappy on Mar 3, 2010 14:46:35 GMT -5
I have a few -1050s. No sign of a bounce yet :-)
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Post by triggerhappy on Mar 3, 2010 14:47:00 GMT -5
-1300!
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Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 3, 2010 14:48:57 GMT -5
Exalt Mikey. I concur entirely.
These are new low ticks. Lowest in past 10 sessions. We are sub -1200. Trin blew through 1.0 as A/D deteriorates (like the wicked witch when she gets wet). We also blew through gap fill, which was surprising. If you read Cobra, you know we have a record high number of gaps in both the Qs and Spy - normally, when the number gets this high, they start to fill.
I'm ready.
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Post by merrillstanley on Mar 3, 2010 14:51:41 GMT -5
Stocks have rolled over since trading in a relatively narrow range. The drop has put the major indices back near neutral territory.
There hasn't been any specific headline to account for the pullback. Rather, the move has been broad based, such that nearly half of the major sectors are now in negative territory -- health care (-0.5%) remains the worst off. DJ30 +1.81 NASDAQ +1.79 SP500 +1.47 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1483/1.80 bln/1167 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1788/558 mln/1195
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Post by merrillstanley on Mar 3, 2010 14:52:21 GMT -5
Midday global & sector ETF view (TAN) : Actively Traded Leading Global & Sector ETF Plays: Solar power- TAN +4.25%, Wind energy- FAN +3.0%, Gold miners- GDX +2.75%, Steel- SLX +2.50%, SPDRS oil & gas equipt/service- XES +2.25%, India- INP +2.25%, Silver- SLV +2.25%, SPDRS metals & mining- XME +2.25%, Coal- KOL +2.0%, Clean energy- PBW +1.75%, Global shippers- SEA +1.75%, iShares Germany- EWG +1.75%, Oil HLDRS- OIH +1.75%, Basic materials- XLB +1.75%, IYM +1.50%, Global timber- CUT +1.50%, iShares hombuilders & const- ITB +1.50%
Actively Traded Lagging Global & Sector ETF Plays: Biotech- XBI -2.0%, IBB -0.25%, US Dollar index- UUP -0.75%, VIX vol index- VXX -0.75%, Pharma HLDRS- PPH -0.50%, US bonds- TLT -0.25%, SPDRS healthcare- XLV -0.25%
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Post by merrillstanley on Mar 3, 2010 14:53:06 GMT -5
NYSE trading volume a bit lighter than yesterday's while NASDAQ right on pace with yesterday's very heavy tally (TECHX) : Here @ midday, total trading volume on the primary stock exchanges diverges once again, with weaker totals seen on the NYSE, and heavy totals displayed on NASDAQ. Yesterday, the NASDAQ posted some of the strongest trading volume in nearly four weeks, when price corrected back from the current YTD highs. Today, NASDAQ is right on pace with yesterday's midday totals, but NYSE continues to lag, still signalling a high interest in accumulation of tech. shares vs. broader market issues.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 3, 2010 14:54:23 GMT -5
Breadth, after being 4:1 pos this morning is now very close to dead flat for both Nyse and NQ.
Oscar chucked his shorts on 20m ago. (Correction: he sold his 1121 shorts right before we dumped).
Carl sold 1116, minus 3pts. His condescending post made this happen.
Spy bounce here is on yesterday's lod.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 3, 2010 15:00:21 GMT -5
I'd watch Iwm. That was the best looking chart yesterday and into today. At double top, it looked like it had broken out today. It has now gap filled and is below the double top. Where it closes is key. Potential for a black bar at key R with high wick.
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Post by merrillstanley on Mar 3, 2010 15:07:48 GMT -5
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) leaders & laggards moving into today's final hour of trading (JOYG) : NDX 100 Best % Performers: JOYG +6.5%, PCAR +3.0%, VOD +2.50%, GRMN +2.25%, APOL +2.25%, SIAL +2.25%, NIHD +2.0%, MICC +1.75%, ATVI +1.75%, DISH +1.75%, ILMN +1.75%
NDX 100 Worst % Performers: STX -6.0%, SPLS -4.0%, MRVL -2.50%, CTSH -2.50%, PCLN -2.50%, EBAY -2.25%, SNDK -2.25%, WCRX -2.0%, MAT -1.75%, TEVA -1.75%, JBHT -1.75%, NVDA -1.75%
NASDAQ TRIN @ +.85 NASDAQ A/D @ -5
Dow 30 (INDU) leaders & laggards moving into today's final hour of trading (KO) : INDU 30 Best % Performers: KO +1.0%, AA +1.0%, CAT +0.75%, CSCO +0.75%, DD +0.75%, GE +0.50%
INDU 30 Worst % Performers: PFE -2.0%, INTC -1.0%, DIS -0.75%, MCD -0.75%, VZ -0.75%, MRK -0.50%, JPM -0.50%
NYSE TRIN @ +0.90 NYSE A/D @ +190
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Mikey
Broker/Dealer
Posts: 581
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Post by Mikey on Mar 3, 2010 15:09:15 GMT -5
UK you're right we bounced right at yesterday's LOD which is also gap window from the Mon-Tues gap up. That gap will fill at $111.89, then we have another gap window at $111.17 that will fill at $110.74 - I have to move that gap analysis thread over from the old board to here and update it
The 20hma on the SPY hourly chart looks pretty bullish with this bounce off of $112.0 but all of my gap research has suggested that small gaps (like the two we have down south right now) have a much higher % likelihood of filling than the monster weekend gap up and run's we sometimes have.
I think we sell into the close - VXX hasn't pulled back much with this bounce off $112.0 and the Euro is also showing weakness (back below 137.00)
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Mikey
Broker/Dealer
Posts: 581
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Post by Mikey on Mar 3, 2010 15:18:36 GMT -5
"In spirit of" bear flag on that 5min chart?
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Post by merrillstanley on Mar 3, 2010 15:21:37 GMT -5
The stock market recently extended its decline into negative territory as sellers moved broadly to cut reverse this session's gains. However, support has since surfaced so that overall losses remain been moderate.
Despite the broader market's recent pullback, materials stocks continue to sport handsome gains. The sector is up 1.1% at the moment. Energy (+0.2%), industrials (+0.1%), and consumer staples (+0.1%) make up the only other sectors to trade in positive territory.
Treasuries have clipped some of their losses amid the stock market's recent downturn. The benchmark 10-year Note remains a few ticks into the red, though. DJ30 -8.92 NASDAQ -5.44 SP500 -0.37 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1312/2.00 bln/1349 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1575/625 mln/1414
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Post by merrillstanley on Mar 3, 2010 15:35:27 GMT -5
buy programs?
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