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Post by Dualism on Mar 18, 2010 20:20:59 GMT -5
Here is an example -some charts I look at each evening -NAMO & NYMO: Now -when I look at these -I look at in total --trends, pivots, signal lines etcetera --compare NAMO to NYMO, compare daily to weekly, and compare now to August. A picture is worth a thousand words. I look at these and ask myself: "Is this rally over yet?" After looking at these again -my answer is NO -these suggest we continue -we have more upside... I look at these and everything else and then make a call that leans in favor of what all or the great majority of the charts suggest.... Torre, the cumulative McClellan Oscillator is also known as the Summation Index. The Oscillator is the primary compilation of the breadth data ( (advancing - declining issues) represented by the difference of two averages, 19 and 39 (exponential) day moving averages. Once the oscillator is viewed and analyzed, then the cumulative picture is looked at. But the oscillator is temporally a LEADING indicator, whereas the Summation Index is a lagging one. But the lagging indicator is also very important in knowing when risk or complacency has been fully digested. |
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Post by torrentio1 on Mar 18, 2010 20:50:51 GMT -5
Torre, the cumulative McClellan Oscillator is also known as the Summation Index. Yes, the summation data is exactly the cumulative data. I ran into problems with the indicators I use though e.g. daily versus weekly. My feeling was that it had to do with how the data is aggregated... My quick and simple solution was to go cumulative myself and as such avoid aggregation error in the indicators. You can see what I refer to by comparing the indicators in daily versus weekly NYMO (cumulative) versus NYSI... All this in addition to the fact that I like to play with charts and tweak the chart "knobs"-it makes me feel special... ;D |
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Virchy
Cash Account Trader
Posts: 9 
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Post by Virchy on Mar 18, 2010 21:23:05 GMT -5
And TOS does not chart NYMO so far as I can tell... still looking It's there. Just search McClellanOscillator. There is also the McClellanSummationIndex. |
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Post by cosmic on Mar 18, 2010 22:05:35 GMT -5
Thanks Virchy. Is it an oscillator or a symbol to chart? Still looking for a symbol.
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Post by cosmic on Mar 18, 2010 22:14:50 GMT -5
Oops found it, it was a study. Silly place for it...
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Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 21, 2010 12:41:56 GMT -5
We should sticky this thread - some good stuff here. Options are sending a message:  Vix is at that point again (arrows):  Coincidentally, Spy is at a key level, historically. Has it ever passed through here without significant effort and time? 1998 resulted in a significant retracement before succeeding; 6 month bounce followed by another 6-8 month struggle in 2001-02 before finding the low; 12 months of sideways action in 2003-04 (my scenario for this year); the clear point of failure in late 2008.  Cos: Moved to thumbnail images were stretching forum. |
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Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 21, 2010 19:33:46 GMT -5
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Post by Rich on Mar 21, 2010 19:36:28 GMT -5
Wow, that really is a good chart. Time to get short....
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Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 21, 2010 19:41:05 GMT -5
Wow, that really is a good chart. Time to get short.... The key is to vote bull if you are going short. I've tested this empirically. The market will not go down if you vote bear; it also won't go up if you vote bull. That poll has enormous power over the market. |
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Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 22, 2010 17:08:37 GMT -5
The summation is starting to turn. Oh dear.  |
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Post by commodityypro on Mar 22, 2010 17:18:51 GMT -5
Wow, that really is a good chart. Time to get short.... The key is to vote bull if you are going short. I've tested this empirically. The market will not go down if you vote bear; it also won't go up if you vote bull. That poll has enormous power over the market. LMAO..Ukar, your as bad as RC and Cosmic! I need to add you to the superstitious list. lol |
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Post by kingdisco on Mar 22, 2010 17:23:58 GMT -5
Wow, that really is a good chart. Time to get short.... The key is to vote bull if you are going short. I've tested this empirically. The market will not go down if you vote bear; it also won't go up if you vote bull. That poll has enormous power over the market. lol...... our statistics are going to be fawked. well.... would it work better if we all went bull at the same time? rofl its good to see you join the bulls commode lol... |
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Post by Dualism on Mar 24, 2010 18:16:44 GMT -5
Here is my take as what happened to T-bonds. Fitch downgrades Portugal’s credit rating. That means Portugal has to pay higher interest rate for its new issuance. Now there is fear that the domino effect is in full swing. Spain and Ireland may eventually be downgraded too. In fact there is a small fear that the US treasury bonds may eventually be downgraded. But that may be months or years off from now. Because of Portugal and the negative projection about other sovereign debt paper, bond investors want higher yields to compensate for the perceived higher risk. The bond prices for these troubled countries dropped sharply today, making them cheaper, and as a result investors sold bond portfolios in the stable countries to position themselves in higher yielding bonds. Although some of the selling in the US treasury bonds is an over-reaction, it is a case of sell now, ask questions later. There is a definite sense that bond prices will drop more because investors are not willing to fork over money for low rates with the fear of credit downgrades.  Now the US T-bonds broke below the lows of 115-3/4 set in early March. There is a good chance that in the next few days it will test the lows of Mid February at 114-½. If that level does not hold the 113-½ level is going to be extremely a nervous level for bond hold-outs to hang on to. Uncertainty has most certainly increased. Please note the size of the move today. It was the biggest move in the June contract since it became active at the beginning of 2010. A move of this degree may retrace a bit but it usually signals a new direction has begun. By the way, the T-bond futures options are expiring this Friday. That may also have lend a sharp move in bond prices because of evaporating extrinsic option values. Keep a close eye on the T-bonds in the days ahead to discern any continuing fallout from the downgrade. |
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Post by ask2lern on Mar 24, 2010 18:47:24 GMT -5
Exal Dual......................always appriciate your posts.............GL
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Post by benvestor on Mar 24, 2010 19:01:53 GMT -5
Isn't there a correlation between t-bill/bonds and the markets?  Like they go down, so stocks then go up? I thought i heard that somewhere. People take money out of the low risk and put it into higher risk stocks so this is a flow that takes down tbills/bonds and adds money to stocks. That is just an idea i thought i heard somewhere.. please let me know how it really works.. The charts and TA you guys produce is some of the best, in depth coverage i have ever seen in my trading career.. It is amazing and it is def. more informative then the BS media guesses and misleading cues. thank you!  |
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Post by ccash04 on Mar 24, 2010 19:11:19 GMT -5
Isn't there a correlation between t-bill/bonds and the markets? Like they go down, so stocks then go up? I thought i heard that somewhere. People take money out of the low risk and put it into higher risk stocks so this is a flow that takes down tbills/bonds and adds money to stocks. That is just an idea i thought i heard somewhere.. please let me know how it really works.. The charts and TA you guys produce is some of the best, in depth coverage i have ever seen in my trading career.. It is amazing and it is def. more informative then the BS media guesses and misleading cues. thank you! As of late they have both been rising until today... Generally it works like that and it seems like the equity markets are that get whacked when they both rise.. |
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Post by ccash04 on Mar 24, 2010 19:32:46 GMT -5
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Post by kingdisco on Mar 24, 2010 19:41:41 GMT -5
is that a glow worm?
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Post by Dualism on Mar 24, 2010 20:33:55 GMT -5
Here is a fresh look at the McClellan Oscillator. Today we saw a very negative market breadth. NYSE: 1016 vs 1904 Nasdaq: 849 vs 1782 For all US issues: 2261 vs 4730 Poor market breadth has been a rarity lately. But today there was no ambiguity that an overwhelming number of issues was under selling pressure. Now view the NYMO, you'd see that it has carved out 3 distinct lower highs and lower lows. And today marks the first day since the second week of February that both the NYSE and NASDAQ ended with negative Oscillator readings, -1.66 and -1.36, respectively. This means their respective Summation indexes have marked a lower dot than yesterday. They have been rising at a fast rate for over 5 weeks. In other words, the momentum in the rate of advancing issues relative to declining issues has subsided drastically. See the link below the chart. Now if we have another negative day tomorrow, the tone of this market will shift. This is definitely a potentially pivotal juncture.  stockcharts.com/charts/indices/McSumNYSE.html |
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Post by triggerhappy on Mar 24, 2010 21:03:36 GMT -5
Here is a fresh look at the McClellan Oscillator. Fresh out of exalts for you Dual. I am with you. We need to pivot in the other direction though. UK and I (as well as many others I would bet) will be watching the markets closely for this move, ready to pounce... |
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Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 24, 2010 23:08:39 GMT -5
And to this the summation index. This is a derivative of the McClellan. The intermediate tops are circled. It's turning, there is little doubt. YOU HAVE TO CLICK ON THE CHART TO VIEW IT BECAUSE JACK IS RUNNING WINDOWS 1985 AND THE NORMAL SIZED CHARTS CRASH HIS COMPUTER |
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Post by cosmic on Mar 24, 2010 23:11:41 GMT -5
Ukarl, could you flip that over to the thumbnail? I don't wanna hear from Jack in the AM ;D ;D ;D
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Post by cosmic on Mar 24, 2010 23:16:57 GMT -5
Copy/paste the Forum Thumbnail code.
Only for the really wide ones. Say over 500-600px in width.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 24, 2010 23:18:11 GMT -5
Now it looks like crap! No one will look at my cool charts. This is some evil plot . . .Grrr.
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Post by cosmic on Mar 24, 2010 23:23:23 GMT -5
Now it looks like crap! No one will look at my cool charts. This is some evil plot . . .Grrr. I like your charts a lot. I like Mikey's too. Except you guys must be using a 52" LED HiDef for a display LOL. I have code in to scrunch images down, however those ones that are say over 1000px in width (I'm not sure of the exact width) don't scrunch correctly. What you CAN do is after exporting them from your charting software, is load them in Paint and Scale the thing back so it's say 500-600px wide (keep height and width locked so you get correct aspect ratio) and post that. Trust me, if they like the chart they'll click on it |
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Post by Rich on Mar 24, 2010 23:23:49 GMT -5
Now it looks like crap! No one will look at my cool charts. This is some evil plot . . .Grrr. I will look. I love charts  |
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Post by kingdisco on Mar 24, 2010 23:24:28 GMT -5
Now it looks like crap! No one will look at my cool charts. This is some evil plot . . .Grrr. yes its an evil evil plot!!!! cosmic has a squishing obsession  lol jack should be running the latest windows on his uber computer the Voidenstein Moneygrubber 10,000 |
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Post by Rich on Mar 25, 2010 0:02:38 GMT -5
Haven't posted many charts lately because nothing has really changed. This odd-ball rally is freaky looking when looking at a couple year chart. A straight, steep trend up. No bends, no curves, no juts.....just straight. It's like a lincoln log tower that needs to be chopped off with the edge of your hand (Hendrix ) Anyway, this would have to be construed as a rising wedge, although of the ugly, red-headed step-child variety.  |
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Post by Dualism on Mar 25, 2010 19:08:57 GMT -5
Thursday, March 25, 2010 Here is a fresh look at the NYSE McClellan Oscillator. I guess the chart speaks for itself. But note the 7 distinct zig zags (3 lower highs and lows) on the way down from its recent high at around 75. Now it is unambiguously in the negative territory. This also means the summation has marked a lower dot today; its second in two days. I know many experienced market players pare back on their long position when this occurs -- oscillator below the 0-line. But one should also expect that the oscillator drops two and retraces one. On some occasions, it just takes the elevator all the way down or up. But those occurrences are more rare. Will we get a bounce tomorrow or do we go down again? Not sure, but there is a chance that we may see some early strength tomorrow and late selloff.   |
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Post by triggerhappy on Mar 25, 2010 21:34:45 GMT -5
I think futures up PM and then straight down. Slight recovery end of day for Monday.
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