My SPY charts: Green Arrow Update

[cosmic]

Keltner shows we were near the top of the channel (emphasize this is DAILY) and could and had potential for a squeeze but was taken to center of channel where we closed. Take a look at green circled arrows. These are 'calls' made by the software, with varying degrees of intensity indicated by color. Green arrows are strong buys, purple are weaker buys, red arrows are strong sells, blue arrows are weaker sells. I look for confirming factors on other timeframes as well as other oscillators but you can see how it's doing in general.




Let's look at the weekly. Weekly shows the Keltner channel bottom is almost upon us so we should normally bounce there unless there is a definite hard trend lower (depends on how you visualize trend right now.) From a count perspective we're still in the buy setup (purple count) however not all timeframes will trigger at the same moment. FVE is in danger of going to the 0 line slightly bearish, and CMF could cross it's signal line (dark blue) going down also slightly bearish. Both still above 0 is slightly bullish. Weekly does not really confirm nor refute the daily.





Does the monthly confirm? FVE shows 0-line, not bearish, while CMF shows upward. FVE is generally considered smart money, whereas CMF is big money and retail. note that sometimes smart money is also big money. Generally, this would tend to confirm - I would prefer to see a stronger showing in CMF and since this is a weekly, it would take longer to get a confirmation signal. It depends on how you see the trend. If you see trend up, then you have confirmation. If you see trend down, you don't.


That's what I got.

[cosmic]

Here's a very short term, the 15M. Keltner widened quite a bit from Friday and closed near the middle, similar to other charts. Bollingers and vwaps went wider, in a bearish way, with top remaining firm and the bottom opening up downward. We would usually want to see the reverse, the bottom holding with the top expanding upward. Both FVE and CMF tell the story here - they show the heartbeat of our patient, and what you see is a declining heartbeat on the shorter term timeframe here. It's pretty obvious.

Most important, you can see the purple buy arrow confirming with the green count from the Friday low. This would confirm the daily.

[Clinton SPX]

Ahh, my eyes,charts.......too........bright.

[torrentio1]

Jul 18, 2010 23:04:12 GMT -5 cosmic said:

Does the monthly confirm? FVE shows 0-line, not bearish, while CMF shows upward. FVE is generally considered smart money

Daily FVE looks flat while Monthly on the other hand trends upward...

My understanding of 'signal' in regards to FVE was that of the zero crossing. Thus the monthly implies long term bullish with daily short term somewhat implying indecisive sentiment...

[cosmic]

On the top chart, the Daily FVE is showing just under the signal (0) line which is slightly bearish, indicating some distribution rather than accumulation. The bottom chart, the Monthly FVE is whiffling the 0 line, and the Weekly is slightly bullish still. There are two events with FVE that I find important - the 0 crossing as you suggest, and also bullish or bearish crosses with it's moving average (dark blue line) and whether the occur above or below the 0 line.

[cosmic]

Now with that said, the FVE on the weekly is still in bullish territory with a slight turn to the negative.

It's no wonder the monthly is waivering right at neutral.

[cosmic]

All Hail the Green Arrow

[jack]

Jul 20, 2010 20:18:17 GMT -5 cosmic said:

All Hail the Green Arrow

I get the grn but sure can't see purple...coolio study tho - thx

[cosmic]

The CMF has confirmed this move but FVE has not confirmed. The Green Arrow can be early. But in this model, any lower point is considered a buy.

In this model, you should maybe get 1-2 green arrows a year. It is a spectacular trade setup, supposedly.




* I suck so maximum loss can occur, but I'm playing the Green Arrow.

[trading4dough]

I have a COSnundrum on my hands

Hmmmmmmmmmm

[cosmic]

Well, we know what napkin math says if 1050 holds

[puurfectten]

lotta stuff on there..geeeezee.. ..

[cosmic]

Green Arrow Update

As of yesterday, the Green Arrow remained unconfirmed, and under that guideline, you would sell at 0 sum gain if it remained unconfirmed - i.e. your stop would be set to where you bought (minus commission of course!)

Here is a chart of what a failed Green Arrow looks like. Notice the purple sequential counts immediately after the signal. These are 'buy setup' phases... but in the case of a true green arrow, you will not have subsequent buy setups in purple.



Here is a chart of a successful Green Arrow looks like. Notice the blue sequential counts immediately after the signal. These are 'sell setup' phases... (count should reach minimum of 9)



Here's the chart today. The purple sequential has gone away, and is replaced by the blue sequential. We are at 1. Counts reach a minimum of 9 and then issue new signal - either buy again or start selling.




Cobra would appreciate the process here. This is a setup, an execution, and a stop is in place for failure. It's a mechanical trade that flies in the face of prevailing wisdom (except Bros ;D) and I am obeying the rules of the trade.

[cosmic]

Here's today's final Green Arrow update. Will have more charts on the weekend including our position on the Weekly and Monthly - they are continuing to confirm the move. The QQQQ chart also has a Green Arrow. Same relative location.

The only item that is needed right now is for FVE to fully confirm the future by turning bullish (green oval). While we have confirmation in other areas, this is a critical factor to a longer term rally success. It will turn bullish when it crosses the 0 line into positive territory. Today it closed at -14.562. To give some perspective, it was -23.86 yesterday, 7/21. CMF has confirmed the move. Until then stops remain in place at SPY 106.52.

[timber]

thanks cosmo nice charts....i always put numbers in my head and watch those...i try not to get to techinical and miss the forest as long as i get the days direction right i can usually make out well.....what you call napkin math method ;D

[cosmic]

Green Arrow continues to confirm.

[brosin]

I wish my nickname was Green Arrow lol.

[cosmic]

The FVE has crossed it's signal line (light blue crossed dark blue [dark blue is signal]). To get a reference for this shift, FVE was in the -17 range last week, and has moved to -.12. We have still not had the cross of 0 to the positive which is 'bullish' but the CMF boys didn't wait.

[Clinton SPX]

SPX 200ma 1113 daily stoch at 97

[cosmic]

Could end up with some consolidation... how does your weekly and monthly look? Those were confirming Green Arrow.

[Clinton SPX]

SPY 1 min OBV rising probably gearing up for a rally into the close


Fas 1m OBV looks exactly opposite. Hmmmmm

[Clinton SPX]

First sign of some one taking profits. Not saying the reversal is here

[torrentio1]

My nipples confirm.

[cosmic]

Ok here's the chart dump. All are current as of 10 minutes ago.

We'll start with the Daily SPY. It shows a confirmation of this move with FVE confirming today by moving positive, from a reading just last week of -17. Smart Money is now chasing. You'll notice Big Money moved first. Caution is in order however, as always. In this portion of the sequence, a pullback, if limited to 1-2%, can be bought, though with a smaller position.




Remember this is a mechanical trade and all stops, when calculated, are honored. With a move above 1119, stops will be moved up to the 1099-1103 range for exit with profit.




Here's the Weekly. You'll notice my comments about the reliability of Green Arrow in that timeframe. It is true - looking back through history, Green Arrow is much more accurate on the Daily than the Weekly. I don't exactly know why. The divergence created if big money sells but smart money stays - I don't know what that leads to.




On the Monthly, we see a still bullish overall market however it has 'stabilized.' I would suspect, if we don't put in a new high for 2010, we will stay in a range of about 200 SPX points. That seems like a profitable range for the crew.

[theMIST]

Kudos Cos

Some questions for ya. How does the software determine the buy/sell signals (arrows)? Is the software that you are using exclusive to TD Ameritrade? I also noticed that there are some rules. Please explain. Many thanks.

[cosmic]

Actually, you can read about it online: DeMark Sequential.

This is an adapted version, I made a few minor tweaks, nothing spectacular.

[theMIST]

Thanks Cos

For those interested:

www.tradestation.com/Discussions/DATA/20080227134138TDSequential.pdf

[cosmic]

Here's a comparison of other Blue Sequentials. I used this one on purpose - notice the candle on the Blue 4 counts. That's why you can have the buy 1-2% dip rule. But the stop is firm.

[cosmic]

Here's today's view of Green Arrow. We got our blue sequential, and it was a red candle which is very similar to the above examples. FVE has shot up as smart money enters the trade. Big money took some small gains.

I will add on any weakness, although smaller positions.
I will sell if the stop is hit.

[cosmic]

Green Arrow saw another pullback - still well within the 2% of the recent high, so we are still in play, I bought some dip, expect some early weakness tomorrow with a big candle up. If not, that could invalidate the sequential. If that happens, stops at 1099-1100, cannot re-enter till close above 1101.

Upon further review, I will concur with the general consensus that the market is setting up for the possibility of a right shoulder. The weekly and monthly views of SPY while generally still bullish show an excessive amount of caution, and thus the lack of buying volume.

And while this formation may be setting up, the odds and timing of it happening are still as yet undetermined but late fall seems most likely.