|
Post by brosin on Aug 6, 2010 12:01:28 GMT -5
It's a mechanical, technical trade for a market that sucks. It is what it is. It is successful. No I hear ya - I'm just saying it didn't go green arrow on us until 1050 minimum, and then was still saying green arrow all through the early parts of the 1100s, and now it's saying it may go lower than 1050 again? Seems to try to catch a tiny bit of the middle of the moves while waffling along the way. I'd rather be dead wrong than a waffler. Not bashing the Setup or anything like that - just trying to better understand the strengths/weaknesses.
|
|
|
Post by trading4dough on Aug 6, 2010 12:05:32 GMT -5
Big gap just below
yep
down to 1101.76
|
|
|
Post by cosmic on Aug 6, 2010 12:08:36 GMT -5
That's right, it waits for confirmations.
Green Arrows are not to be taken lightly. They represent significant reversals, and to get a Green Arrow is a significant event. Last Green Arrow was March 2009. So you can see the weight it can hold.
But you have to be mechanical about the trade. Understand that this could be the once or twice a year "big move" that are the only two trades you need to do a year (and be all-in) to make your yearly dough.
And with that setup comes some risk. So setting the sell points and honoring them is very important. Because if the Green Arrow fails - at this height, it WILL be the 'die wave' as T4D calls it.
But, if the stops hold, then indeed it's a big deal, and allows you to buy dips in more comfort.
All I can tell you is this market REQUIRES the mechanical trade, otherwise...
|
|
|
Post by brosin on Aug 6, 2010 12:13:50 GMT -5
All I can tell you is this market REQUIRES the mechanical trade, otherwise... I better understand what you mean from that post - had forgotten Green Arrow was a rare event. As for quoted part, I know we are discussing different time frames, but it is the mechanical, TA, BS crap trading I've done that has killed me. It is the boring buy and hold IRA account that has done much better for me and for the other account I run. This could be unique to me and my specific trading choices, but I don't think it is.
|
|
|
Post by cosmic on Aug 6, 2010 12:18:30 GMT -5
Every market player has different needs. Yours are very different than mine.
|
|
|
Post by dino on Aug 6, 2010 12:46:19 GMT -5
Maxi, you will notice that I circle and highlight very specific sequential counts on the charts - these are the blue numbers, purple numbers, red numbers, and green numbers... all counting up and then restarting. It's important that you understand the blue vs. the purple. Blue counts are SELL counts meaning we're successfully in an uptrend and the system is trying to decide sell points. Purple counts are BUY counts meaning we're not confirmed on the uptrend and additional buy points can be calculated south of the Green Arrow - that's right, buy points lower than the 1050 area where we got the Green Arrow. So when you have a sequential shift from blue to purple, it's telling you that it CAN calculate buy points south of your entry. You wouldn't want to be long, having already bought, 1050, have not sold, and then we run lower than 1050. The chart is conflicting - Green Arrow is still green, and the sequential is still trying to figure things out one way or the other. A note to add to Cos' point: The reason the blue counts were removed today is because the blue counts (Sell Setups) must run 9 consecutive price bars where the close of the price bar is greater than the close 4 price bars earlier. At this point in the day (spx 1109), we will close lower thus the pattern fails. Purple counts (Buy Setups) must also run 9 consecutive price bars but with a close that's less than the close 4 price bars earlier. Red and Green counts (Buy and Sell Countdowns) run 13 price bars but they do not have to run consecutively. Here's a chart with more explanation: Uploaded with ImageShack.us
|
|
|
Post by brosin on Aug 6, 2010 12:47:31 GMT -5
Wow thanks Dino - exalt!
|
|
|
Post by cosmic on Aug 6, 2010 12:49:57 GMT -5
Thanks Dino, and what we were trying to get to was 9 blues so we could start to see a red countdown.
|
|
|
Post by maxi on Aug 6, 2010 12:51:20 GMT -5
Maxi, you will notice that I circle and highlight very specific sequential counts on the charts - these are the blue numbers, purple numbers, red numbers, and green numbers... all counting up and then restarting. It's important that you understand the blue vs. the purple. Blue counts are SELL counts meaning we're successfully in an uptrend and the system is trying to decide sell points. Purple counts are BUY counts meaning we're not confirmed on the uptrend and additional buy points can be calculated south of the Green Arrow - that's right, buy points lower than the 1050 area where we got the Green Arrow. So when you have a sequential shift from blue to purple, it's telling you that it CAN calculate buy points south of your entry. You wouldn't want to be long, having already bought, 1050, have not sold, and then we run lower than 1050. The chart is conflicting - Green Arrow is still green, and the sequential is still trying to figure things out one way or the other. A note to add to Cos' point: The reason the blue counts were removed today is because the blue counts (Sell Setups) must run 9 consecutive price bars where the close of the price bar is greater than the close 4 price bars earlier. At this point in the day (spx 1109), we will close lower thus the pattern fails. Purple counts (Buy Setups) must also run 9 consecutive price bars but with a close that's less than the close 4 price bars earlier. Red and Green counts (Buy and Sell Countdowns) run 13 price bars but they do not have to run consecutively. Here's a chart with more explanation: Uploaded with ImageShack.usEXALT!
|
|
|
Post by dino on Aug 6, 2010 13:01:05 GMT -5
Send the thanks to Cos. I had no idea what this Demark thing was until he posted it. Also, the chart is from a link someone posted on this thread.
What really peaked my interest in this was the Rifin chart. The indicator posted a Red arrow on 4/14 when Rifin was 900+ then posted a purple arrow (buy) -200 points later. Can't post the chart now, but will later today...
|
|
|
Post by cosmic on Aug 6, 2010 13:03:45 GMT -5
This is true - RIFIN never went Green Arrow, but SPY and Q's did, as did IWM I believe.
|
|
|
Post by brosin on Aug 6, 2010 13:09:25 GMT -5
This is where Dino got this from. Exalt for MIST when I get one back. Thanks guys - I'm less in the dark now about what this is all talking about.
|
|
alphaspeculator
Broker/Dealer
I buy high and sell low[F4:alphaspeculator]
Posts: 444
|
Post by alphaspeculator on Aug 6, 2010 13:11:11 GMT -5
You are awesome.
|
|
|
Post by dino on Aug 6, 2010 13:16:32 GMT -5
Forgot to mention: The mark to get the blue count back today is a close above 1125.86.
|
|
|
Post by dino on Aug 6, 2010 21:26:04 GMT -5
Here's the Rifin chart. Notice how there were a couple failed blue down arrows and a failed down red arrow on the way to the high at 909. As Cos has pointed out a few times, this is where the stops must be honored. But... that red arrow at the top was dead on and the trend reversal to the upside didn't happen until roughly -200 points later! In a perfect world, this equates to shorting FAS at 39 and covering at 18... Uploaded with ImageShack.us
|
|
|
Post by timber on Aug 6, 2010 21:34:23 GMT -5
nice dino
|
|
|
Post by cosmic on Aug 8, 2010 20:08:20 GMT -5
Weekend chart. Notice how fast FVE turned around. The argument is for pullback to relieve but look at the RSI on the shorter period. So I expect a runaway 1 or 2 days at least. We have to get that chart back to confirming Green Arrow.
|
|
|
Post by cosmic on Aug 18, 2010 16:41:31 GMT -5
Latest Green Arrow update: Still green! Looks like, from the FVE, that smart money is buying dips while all money is selling the pop here. I would argue it 'appears' as though there's some accumulation. Uploaded with ImageShack.us
|
|
|
Post by dino on Aug 18, 2010 20:59:02 GMT -5
Nice Cos. I like that the blue counts are back also. If only we could have closed closer to the high today, I'd feel more comfortable. Sure looks like we made the turn but you never know with Opex.
I'm really getting into this Sequential Indicator. Thanks for bringing it to the attention of the board. LOW and VSTNQ (of all stocks) have green arrows also that I've been watching. Actually played LOW once and will look to buy dips after today's strong candle.
|
|
|
Post by cosmic on Aug 18, 2010 21:18:44 GMT -5
Very cool. Just stay mechanical and use stops, cut it if it runs counter. I also like this for the multi-day hold/swing, I don't have to guess on a particular squiggle but look to the longer result.
Lots of people use DeMark. So you are seeing what they are seeing and all act accordingly, causing the result. You may even get better results on an individual stock - indexes can be too complex perhaps for it, we shall see.
We have created, if you were to 'believe the action,' a very strong repetitive basing action in this area. Opex or not. Now, do they sell it as a ceiling or hold it as a pivot? Well right now, with the blue counts, we are still confirmed.
|
|
|
Post by dino on Aug 18, 2010 21:38:51 GMT -5
Stops are interesting with this indicator. I know they are required (part of the mechanics), but have you ever calculated the true stop of a green arrow? I did on SPX and was shocked. If I did it correctly, the stop is 988.xx. The green arrow was posted at 1064. That's one hell of a cushion.
LOW is a little better. The way I calculated it, the stop is at 18.86 for this run. The green arrrow was posted at a close of 19.92.
Maybe it's just the nature of the beast. The more violent the swings, the whackier the stops can be calculated. I'd still like to find a script for TOS that would mark the stop automatically but haven't had any luck. I also have this dream of coding it. All in my spare time of course.
|
|
|
Post by cosmic on Aug 18, 2010 21:45:36 GMT -5
Right, I use measured move and standard pivots for the stops.
What formula did you use? Maybe I can give it a TOS try?
|
|
|
Post by dino on Aug 18, 2010 22:08:01 GMT -5
I used the formula in the article posted in this thread: The placing of stop loss levels is a crucial component of the Sequential Indicator and they are generated automatically only after the completion of a Countdown. For a buy signal, their level is calculated by identifying the lowest price bar of the entire Countdown (whether numbered or not) and then subtracting the low of that price bar from its high, or the prior price bar's close, whichever is the greater. This value is in turn subtracted from the low of that same price bar and the critical stop loss level is established. The stop loss is only executed when there is a close above the stop loss level followed by a close below it. The next price bar must also open below the stop loss but must also have a low that is below its open.
|
|
|
Post by cosmic on Aug 18, 2010 23:12:42 GMT -5
That would yield a stop loss roughly 1035
|
|
|
Post by dino on Aug 19, 2010 7:06:02 GMT -5
Hmmmm... Ok. That sounds more realistic. Let me recalculate. I'll post what I come up with later today...
|
|
|
Post by dino on Aug 19, 2010 20:25:22 GMT -5
Ok Mr. Cos. I'm not getting 1035. Can we compare calcs? "For a buy signal, their level is calculated by identifying the lowest price bar of the entire Countdown (whether numbered or not)" The lowest price bar was on 7.1.10 - SPX 1010"...and then subtracting the low of that price bar from its high, or the prior price bar's close, whichever is the greater." High = 1033 Low = 1010 Difference = 23 "This value is in turn subtracted from the low of that same price bar and the critical stop loss level is established" 1010 - 23 = 9871035 <> 987 What am I missing?!?!?!
|
|
|
Post by cosmic on Aug 19, 2010 22:13:09 GMT -5
I used the lowest price bar since 7/16 when the Green Arrow was issued.
|
|
|
Post by cosmic on Sept 19, 2010 22:18:14 GMT -5
Green Arrow is actually still playing out now that this runup confirmed (It did a while ago but I didn't post an update here but made a few comments about the indecision being shaken.) The typical pattern now is a 13 sequential count, after at least 1 red candle. Bingo, so far. We may get more red candles, but typically they are small and not impulsive. The sequential will be colored Red on my charts, signifying a sell count. The 13th sequential will be higher than today's levels. How much is a question answered more by measured moves and the triangle patterns.
|
|