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Post by brosin on Aug 13, 2011 12:36:30 GMT -5
I know it doesn't make me any more wise to have seen all the problems developing for many many months now even while the stock market was ignoring them.
But having just been sitting pat and waiting for $hit to hit the fan, it has been a very interesting thing to watch as it has finally been happening. In some ways, it happened exactly as I would've expected (price action-wise). In other ways, it has taken on a mind of its own that I didn't expect (sentiment).
I guess I did not anticipate that market participants would have been so lost that they could have gone from being strikingly bullish without ANY concern for problems to strikingly bearish without ANY concern for opportunities in the speed with which it has happened. Maybe it is our immediate gratification culture showing its face in the form of financial markets, but whatever it is, it has been a sight to behold. It wasn't more than 3 or 4 WEEKS ago when sentiment readings were at bullish extremes. Now it is already the reverse.
In many ways, the truly intense end of the world mentality that has swept everything up has turned me very very bullish. Fear does not always create more fear. More times than not, it creates opportunity. The amount of fear I have seen makes me strongly consider that it may self correct itself and have been exactly what the market needed to continue higher in the long term and even possibly stimulate the economy in a way we have not seen for a good 12 months. While I wouldn't have touched a long position with a 10 foot pole a month ago, I see so many opportunities out there now with the market having corrected almost 20%. Doesn't anyone buy low and sell high anymore?
I don't know yet if I am ready to become a long term bull again - but I do know that I am way closer to it than I would've ever imagined I would be in this quick a timeframe. I'm sorry, but I ignored the markets and the participants for a LONG time (9 months), and it turned out to have been the right play without question. I have no problem ignoring them yet again and this time from the other perspective.
I do know that I am very bullish in the interim and keeping my eye out for things that will either push me over the edge back into the LT bull camp or push me back down into the LT bear camp that I have been in since the last weeks of 2010.
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Post by sorry4mypastlife on Aug 13, 2011 15:41:13 GMT -5
It comes down to politics for me. The world is looking to us for answers and I believe they want us to take charge. I honestly believe if we could get congress to work together, end these wars, and start to rebuild america from within we could see a new begining. The EPA needs to step back a little and let us go after resources and loop holes need to be closed. This no compromise attitude of the republican party scares me because as long as that is their attitude the far left dems are going to push their agenda causing a stalemate. If america is ready to act like adults instead of children I see a country that not only can be saved but much improved.
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Post by kbk3ck on Aug 13, 2011 18:33:51 GMT -5
Obviously congress won't work together. If the Teabagers can get control of the White house and both houses of congress then we are due for riots.
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Post by Rothschild on Aug 13, 2011 19:21:15 GMT -5
I know it doesn't make me any more wise to have seen all the problems developing for many many months now even while the stock market was ignoring them. But having just been sitting pat and waiting for $hit to hit the fan, it has been a very interesting thing to watch as it has finally been happening. In some ways, it happened exactly as I would've expected (price action-wise). In other ways, it has taken on a mind of its own that I didn't expect (sentiment). I guess I did not anticipate that market participants would have been so lost that they could have gone from being strikingly bullish without ANY concern for problems to strikingly bearish without ANY concern for opportunities in the speed with which it has happened. Maybe it is our immediate gratification culture showing its face in the form of financial markets, but whatever it is, it has been a sight to behold. It wasn't more than 3 or 4 WEEKS ago when sentiment readings were at bullish extremes. Now it is already the reverse. In many ways, the truly intense end of the world mentality that has swept everything up has turned me very very bullish. Fear does not always create more fear. More times than not, it creates opportunity. The amount of fear I have seen makes me strongly consider that it may self correct itself and have been exactly what the market needed to continue higher in the long term and even possibly stimulate the economy in a way we have not seen for a good 12 months. While I wouldn't have touched a long position with a 10 foot pole a month ago, I see so many opportunities out there now with the market having corrected almost 20%. Doesn't anyone buy low and sell high anymore? I don't know yet if I am ready to become a long term bull again - but I do know that I am way closer to it than I would've ever imagined I would be in this quick a timeframe. I'm sorry, but I ignored the markets and the participants for a LONG time (9 months), and it turned out to have been the right play without question. I have no problem ignoring them yet again and this time from the other perspective. I do know that I am very bullish in the interim and keeping my eye out for things that will either push me over the edge back into the LT bull camp or push me back down into the LT bear camp that I have been in since the last weeks of 2010. I agree generally; one thing that stands out in my mind is the break of the up trendline (From 3-9-2009) for the SPY @ 130s. This tells me trend reversal and that the grizzly bear is BACK! I believe we will bounce a lil higher before another colossal dump takes place. Remember, it is still that easy money vs tight money. Right now, the money is flowing for the bankers and quite tight for main street. Thus, money supply continues to contract for most Americans. This correction also means that the FED will soon initiate QE3 and beyond! We still havent addressed the 2.1 Quadrillion derivatives problem! JP Morgan owns 70% of those derivatives now  This is the canary in the coal mine that will cause the implosion imo. I am cautiously bullish for now but make no mistake: another colossal dump is a comin! |
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Post by dino on Aug 13, 2011 20:24:59 GMT -5
Bros - wasn't your bearish target that 1120-1150 area anyways? Or was that just your target for the "first" wave?
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Post by puurfectten on Aug 13, 2011 21:58:48 GMT -5
well..i have to say this..i warned my friends who have $$ in the market "and don't know anything" that wave 3's are violent so be careful....holy sheepshit..gotta say i underestimated the violence of ths one...have a target of 100-1040 for wave 5 if we get one...i'm not at all discounting the possibility of this count getting wiped out like all the others and we rocket to a new high...spy aug puts about 3 or 4 to one open interest against the calls below 1300...r they gonna burn em...could be a nice vix burn rally through next week...or is my thinking all wrong?
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Post by brosin on Aug 14, 2011 20:57:44 GMT -5
Bros - wasn't your bearish target that 1120-1150 area anyways? Or was that just your target for the "first" wave? The 1130/50 area was before I was in the double dip camp - it will all depend on whether or not I remain there as to whether I think this was only the beginning. So far, I do still believe we have lower to go. |
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Post by novice08 on Aug 14, 2011 21:09:01 GMT -5
Remember this is a CONFIDENCE game. The world still looks to the U.S. for answers and the fact that D.C. could not get it together was the destroyer (again) of confidence. I agree with Rothschild, could be a nasty few trading days before Jackson Hole on the 26th...just heard a Columbia U. prof of econ talk about how the Fed is actually learning on the job as we have never faced anything like this globally...he was talking about $ swaps and the outside spread model which went right over my head, but said it is genius and the model for the future. Maybe someone could translate what he means for me. Also said the Fed was not created to parcel out billions to European Banks...well, that's an understatement.
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Post by brosin on Aug 14, 2011 23:40:27 GMT -5
Remember this is a CONFIDENCE game. The world still looks to the U.S. for answers and the fact that D.C. could not get it together was the destroyer (again) of confidence. I agree with Rothschild, could be a nasty few trading days before Jackson Hole on the 26th...just heard a Columbia U. prof of econ talk about how the Fed is actually learning on the job as we have never faced anything like this globally...he was talking about $ swaps and the outside spread model which went right over my head, but said it is genius and the model for the future. Maybe someone could translate what he means for me. Also said the Fed was not created to parcel out billions to European Banks...well, that's an understatement. I agree that's the most worrisome thing in that the Fed has no idea if what they are trying will work, and I seriously doubt that there really is a plan B. All financial market assumptions become tested when interest rates hit 0%. The banks currently have the money to lend. Do enough people / govts / corporations / etc want to borrow it? The Fed must get that money out of Excess Reserves. |
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This is the canary in the coal mine that will cause the implosion imo.
