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Post by cosmic on May 26, 2011 15:46:42 GMT -5
Well THAT sure was bullish lol. Ok admittedly the small caps did most of the heavy lifting today as expressed by the IWM. Watchlists were 'most undecided' as some still had quite a bit of red and not just the biotech watchlist  I added SOL today at 7 even. My only trade. Hope everyone made some money today and will do so tomorrow. Members please post your results along with your RDA of smileys!  |
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Post by tajmahal9898 on May 26, 2011 16:02:50 GMT -5
it was a good day -- sold another 50 May 22 calls for 97 cents..
unrealized profit of $56.6K... if VXX closes below 22 (26 cents away) tomorrow, I stand to make another 12K...that would be really nice... would take YTD realized profit to 40% (>$400K, yahoo!!!!)
Keeping my fingers crossed..
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Post by herceg1967 on May 26, 2011 16:22:18 GMT -5
it was a good day -- sold another 50 May 22 calls for 97 cents.. unrealized profit of $56.6K... if VXX closes below 22 (26 cents away) tomorrow, I stand to make another 12K...that would be really nice... would take YTD realized profit to 40% (>$400K, yahoo!!!!) Keeping my fingers crossed.. With that type of profit, again I do not understand why you work.............I have a strong hunch you own something in business ....  But then again what do I know...............  BOL to you !!!!! |
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Post by Beau999 on May 26, 2011 16:28:56 GMT -5
My SD calls rocked today!!!
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Post by demanuel2001 on May 26, 2011 16:36:28 GMT -5
Nice day - my LVS $40 calls continue to rock. May actually finish up for the week. Up 3% today.
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Post by kbk3ck on May 26, 2011 16:50:37 GMT -5
Deman!!! How u feelen?
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Post by kbk3ck on May 26, 2011 16:51:38 GMT -5
My SD calls rocked today!!! Up 11.76%!!!!!!! NICE shot man!!!!   |
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Post by papasloth on May 26, 2011 17:35:57 GMT -5
Taj,
I hope you don't mind some unsolicited advice. I don't know what your overall financial situation is, so this might not apply. Everyone has bad months, no matter how carefully you manage your investments, and your net worth is sufficiently high that you need to protect yourself against black swans. Even extremely low probability events happen sometimes. This is just a long way of saying that you might want to consider pulling some part of your trading portfolio off the table and parking it into something "relatively safe" if you haven't already. Personally, I only have about 1/4 of my net worth tied up in my trading account. The bulk of the rest is tied up in real estate, long-term holdings in my IRA, and an annuity. I used to hold precious metals as well, but they got high enough that I decided to take my profits (I was too early, as often happens with me). These investments are "boring," but they make the inevitable swings in the trading account a lot easier to take.
You've probably done this already. If not, consider pulling a smallish amount, say 20K/month, out of your trading account and sticking it somewhere safe. If your run continues, as I'm sure it will, you won't even notice the dent that 20K/month makes. If you hit a black swan, you'll know that you have some set aside for your old age.
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Post by demanuel2001 on May 26, 2011 17:48:05 GMT -5
OK so far. Hoping not to have to take pain pills. Hoping to self-medicate with liquor instead. |
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Post by tajmahal9898 on May 26, 2011 17:55:06 GMT -5
thanks papa for excellent advise.. this is what makes Fastopia great.. people watching out for each other..
I will definitely review my financial situation and make changes as you have recommended.
Thanks again for taking time to think about me and to write such an informative note.. Much appreciated. You are my option idol and I look forward to continue to learn from you .. I promise to be a well behaved student.
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Post by maxi on May 26, 2011 18:17:09 GMT -5
Taj and Papa An IRA is not a safe investment. It is subject to the vagaries of the market. IRA's are just accounts that supposedly have tax advantages. If there were to be a Black Swan the IRA would go down the tubes with the rest.
There IRA's that consist of CD's. But they pay nothing.
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Post by kbk3ck on May 26, 2011 18:29:19 GMT -5
Maxie cat is right ya know!!!! Gold would be a good place to stash I guess?
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Post by papasloth on May 26, 2011 18:33:14 GMT -5
Taj and Papa An IRA is not a safe investment. It is subject to the vagaries of the market. IRA's are just accounts that supposedly have tax advantages. If there were to be a Black Swan the IRA would go down the tubes with the rest. There IRA's that consist of CD's. But they pay nothing. Yes, it depends entirely on what you buy into the IRA, but there's a big difference in risk profile between parking your IRA money in some conservative dividend paying stock, and shorting naked VXX calls  I did say "relatively safe." |
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Post by papasloth on May 26, 2011 18:36:08 GMT -5
Gold is not decoupled from a market downturn either, as we saw during the last crash when gold pulled back under 700 with the market. When th hedge funds start busting, everything goes down.
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Post by kbk3ck on May 26, 2011 18:39:03 GMT -5
Then its best to manage it yourself. Thats what I do.
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Post by novice08 on May 26, 2011 18:50:52 GMT -5
JMO, everyone should have at least some physical PMs as a hedge and of course a bunker would be nice (but a pipe dream for me).
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Post by tajmahal9898 on May 26, 2011 18:59:59 GMT -5
Not trying to be too fancy here.. Papa was referring to CAPM/Modern portfolio theory.. there is a direct correlation b/w risk and reward.. All he was suggesting to park the money to risk averse portfolio which though might yield less return, unsystematic risk can be controlled. There is always going to systematic risk due to the nature of the stock market...
------few definitions ---
1. Systematic Risk - These are market risks that cannot be diversified away. Interest rates, recessions and wars are examples of systematic risks.
2. Unsystematic Risk - Also known as "specific risk," this risk is specific to individual stocks and can be diversified away as the investor increases the number of stocks in his or her portfolio. In more technical terms, it represents the component of a stock's return that is not correlated with general market moves.
--------------
The CAPM is a model for pricing an individual security or a portfolio. For individual securities, we make use of the security market line (SML) and its relation to expected return and systematic risk (beta) to show how the market must price individual securities in relation to their security risk class. The SML enables us to calculate the reward-to-risk ratio for any security in relation to that of the overall market. Therefore, when the expected rate of return for any security is deflated by its beta coefficient, the reward-to-risk ratio for any individual security in the market is equal to the market reward-to-risk ratio, thus:
\frac {E(R_i)- R_f}{\beta_{i}} = E(R_m) - R_f
The market reward-to-risk ratio is effectively the market risk premium and by rearranging the above equation and solving for E(Ri), we obtain the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM).
E(R_i) = R_f + \beta_{i}(E(R_m) - R_f)\,
where:
* E(R_i)~~ is the expected return on the capital asset
* R_f~ is the risk-free rate of interest such as interest arising from government bonds
* \beta_{i}~~ (the beta) is the sensitivity of the expected excess asset returns to the expected excess market returns, or also \beta_{i} = \frac {\mathrm{Cov}(R_i,R_m)}{\mathrm{Var}(R_m)},
* E(R_m)~ is the expected return of the market
* E(R_m)-R_f~ is sometimes known as the market premium or risk premium (the difference between the expected market rate of return and the risk-free rate of return).
Restated, in terms of risk premium, we find that:
E(R_i) - R_f = \beta_{i}(E(R_m) - R_f)\,
which states that the individual risk premium equals the market premium times β.
Note 1: the expected market rate of return is usually estimated by measuring the Geometric Average of the historical returns on a market portfolio (e.g. S&P 500).
Note 2: the risk free rate of return used for determining the risk premium is usually the arithmetic average of historical risk free rates of return and not the current risk free rate of return.
For the full derivation see Modern portfolio theory.
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Post by jack on May 26, 2011 19:07:42 GMT -5
JMO, everyone should have at least some physical PMs as a hedge and of course a bunker would be nice (but a pipe dream for me). I'm hoping either Abs or Clem will take me in; I'm fairly easy to get along with and got a lotta good jokes up my sleeve.  |
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Post by jack on May 26, 2011 19:10:48 GMT -5
Not trying to be too fancy here.. Papa was referring to CAPM/Modern portfolio theory.. there is a direct correlation b/w risk and reward.. All he was suggesting to park the money to risk averse portfolio which though might yield less return, unsystematic risk can be controlled. There is always going to systematic risk due to the nature of the stock market... ------few definitions --- 1. Systematic Risk - These are market risks that cannot be diversified away. Interest rates, recessions and wars are examples of systematic risks. 2. Unsystematic Risk - Also known as "specific risk," this risk is specific to individual stocks and can be diversified away as the investor increases the number of stocks in his or her portfolio. In more technical terms, it represents the component of a stock's return that is not correlated with general market moves. -------------- The CAPM is a model for pricing an individual security or a portfolio. For individual securities, we make use of the security market line (SML) and its relation to expected return and systematic risk (beta) to show how the market must price individual securities in relation to their security risk class. The SML enables us to calculate the reward-to-risk ratio for any security in relation to that of the overall market. Therefore, when the expected rate of return for any security is deflated by its beta coefficient, the reward-to-risk ratio for any individual security in the market is equal to the market reward-to-risk ratio, thus: \frac {E(R_i)- R_f}{\beta_{i}} = E(R_m) - R_f The market reward-to-risk ratio is effectively the market risk premium and by rearranging the above equation and solving for E(Ri), we obtain the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). E(R_i) = R_f + \beta_{i}(E(R_m) - R_f)\, where: * E(R_i)~~ is the expected return on the capital asset * R_f~ is the risk-free rate of interest such as interest arising from government bonds * \beta_{i}~~ (the beta) is the sensitivity of the expected excess asset returns to the expected excess market returns, or also \beta_{i} = \frac {\mathrm{Cov}(R_i,R_m)}{\mathrm{Var}(R_m)}, * E(R_m)~ is the expected return of the market * E(R_m)-R_f~ is sometimes known as the market premium or risk premium (the difference between the expected market rate of return and the risk-free rate of return). Restated, in terms of risk premium, we find that: E(R_i) - R_f = \beta_{i}(E(R_m) - R_f)\, which states that the individual risk premium equals the market premium times β. Note 1: the expected market rate of return is usually estimated by measuring the Geometric Average of the historical returns on a market portfolio (e.g. S&P 500). Note 2: the risk free rate of return used for determining the risk premium is usually the arithmetic average of historical risk free rates of return and not the current risk free rate of return. For the full derivation see Modern portfolio theory. I dunno about y'all, but that left me in the dust - so if you get "fancy" I'll be in the mud! lol!!! |
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Post by exabi on May 26, 2011 19:32:05 GMT -5
OK so far. Hoping not to have to take pain pills. Hoping to self-medicate with liquor instead. Vicodin and Vodka....V&V the drink of choice  Back to even on CLNE, GMLP keeps ranging up, and LVS is unlosing, and my AC is working - $52 and a case of Natty Light. Also, hit a major milestone today with my BUD pension. |
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Post by Clinton SPX on May 26, 2011 19:44:10 GMT -5
I bought the dip this morning
FFL fin etf
FEG energy etf
account down .9%
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Post by ppppp3571113 on May 26, 2011 20:05:31 GMT -5
I Stared at the tape and watched TNA go up 5% and felt stupid for selling it for only 3.5% gain yesterday.  really expected the street to pull the rug out EOD. Posted a lot of stupid jokes on the saloon. |
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Post by novice08 on May 26, 2011 20:15:56 GMT -5
JMO, everyone should have at least some physical PMs as a hedge and of course a bunker would be nice (but a pipe dream for me). I'm hoping either Abs or Clem will take me in; I'm fairly easy to get along with and got a lotta good jokes up my sleeve. Me, too--I've volunteered to fish, clean fish and cook...hope they have room for all of us. Are they the only two with a bunker? Abs lives in the same state, Clem's bunker's in Ohio... |
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Post by jack on May 26, 2011 20:39:27 GMT -5
kbk's got a ranch in TX - you any good at butchering steers and making good beef jerky??  |
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Post by jack on May 26, 2011 20:41:21 GMT -5
I Stared at the tape and watched TNA go up 5% and felt stupid for selling it for only 3.5% gain yesterday. really expected the street to pull the rug out EOD. Posted a lot of stupid jokes on the saloon. Stupid jokes are worthy of my highest admiration: EXALT! |
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Post by jack on May 26, 2011 20:43:27 GMT -5
Practiced doing figure 8's on the bike in an 8' wide box.
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Post by novice08 on May 26, 2011 20:55:37 GMT -5
oh, yeah forgot about that and I love Texas...does he have a pond/lake for fishing too? Not much of a butcher...what's your contribution gonna be...
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Post by jack on May 26, 2011 21:02:22 GMT -5
oh, yeah forgot about that and I love Texas...does he have a pond/lake for fishing too? Not much of a butcher...what's your contribution gonna be... I once heard him mention something about a horny hot tub:  Okay then...guess I'll have to learn how to do the butchering...yuck |
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Post by ppppp3571113 on May 26, 2011 21:11:41 GMT -5
Bunkers are too static IMHO. I highly recommend the mobile approach to Dystopia Preparation Solution. Consider a 4x4 F350 with a little camper on top, fully equipped with a nice bed, a soft pillow, plenty of extra diesel, water, batteries, Saiga 12k, M-4 with gp30 grenade launcher...
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Post by papasloth on May 26, 2011 21:19:05 GMT -5
I'm not necessarily against living in a truck, but where do you put the home theater? I'm not giving up my 12' wide screen and 7.1 surround sound for anything.
You can have pretty much everything else, just leave me the projector, the receiver, the speakers, and the home theater PC.
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