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Post by Dualism on Jul 28, 2010 13:20:16 GMT -5
Highlights of Beige Book
The economy continued to improve according to the latest Beige Book, although the growth rate slowed in some Districts. Instead of all Districts simply reporting improvement as in the previous release, two Districts said conditions were "steady" and two Districts said "the pace of economic activity had slowed recently." Importantly, the report noted that labor markets "improved modestly."
While the overall tenor of the Beige Book is less positive, there are some pluses. Manufacturing mostly continues to expand and retail sales are up. Several Districts cited apparel, food, and other necessities as recent strong sellers, while big-ticket items were weak sellers. However, auto sales have slipped in recent weeks.
On the downside, residential real estate is called "sluggish" after the expiration of special tax credits on April 30 but that characterization is less negative than many expected. Commercial real estate is still weak.
Wage pressures are seen as "contained on the whole" and consumer prices are reported as "relatively stable."
Lending standards remain "restrictive." Banking conditions are mixed in many Districts but a few reported a decline in delinquency rates.
Overall, the Beige Book fits the picture of a moderating recovery that most analysts had already concluded as taking place. In fact, the Beige Book's characterizing appears to be less negative than many had perceived. Equities initially dipped on the release but rebounded after reviewing details.
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Post by brosin on Jul 28, 2010 13:21:39 GMT -5
Don't say that Jack! 1095 area, and then on to 1132+! 59% of companies have beat est's and THIS is all we can muster I'm thinkin'...but hope you are right. We started moving the 10% up before they were announced, so alot of it was/is already baked in. The market isn't and hasn't been looking at this quarter's earnings, I don't think, but rather the next few quarters'. The fact that we rallied from the depths of doom and gloom bear headquarters in the face of it all, in *addition* to the better than expected earnings this quarter, has been a great sign to me that the underlying market is expecting good things going forward despite all the noise of the past couple months. Economic growth numbers remain firmly positive, and the latest FOMC minutes say that the Fed still sees moderate economic growth.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 28, 2010 13:24:21 GMT -5
TNX got whacked. Two day low here. 3% is psychological but 2.9% is S. GS refuses to sell off.
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Post by abdogman on Jul 28, 2010 13:24:42 GMT -5
BB's spreading on xlf fas faz xlf 14.70 on 1m xlf fas on lower BBchannel
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Post by cosmic on Jul 28, 2010 13:24:58 GMT -5
I sold my Call leg of my LVS straddle. Will re-enter after current jitters subside.
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Post by jack on Jul 28, 2010 13:25:39 GMT -5
59% of companies have beat est's and THIS is all we can muster I'm thinkin'...but hope you are right. We started moving the 10% up before they were announced, so alot of it was/is already baked in. The market isn't and hasn't been looking at this quarter's earnings, I don't think, but rather the next few quarters'. The fact that we rallied from the depths of doom and gloom bear headquarters in the face of it all, in *addition* to the better than expected earnings this quarter, has been a great sign to me that the underlying market is expecting good things going forward despite all the noise of the past couple months. Economic growth numbers remain firmly positive, and the latest FOMC minutes say that the Fed still sees moderate economic growth. The general consensus is that companies are not dipping into their bloated coffers and expanding and hiring because they don't trust this Administration and its policies - and I can't blame them. As long as they don't start investing in their own businesses I see us going NOWHERE FAST.
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Post by elle on Jul 28, 2010 13:31:00 GMT -5
Saks, floor 4, where the $250,000 crowd can actually buy looks like a flea market - can you say tax increases? Whatchoo doin up there Elle!?? ;D ;D ;D They got any good sales? looking for dressy dress, floors 2 and 3 are deserted, of course, good crowd on 4, but the price cuts really broad, almost ewerything on sale - best economic indicator around, maybe you all pay me shop there and let you know direction.
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Post by brosin on Jul 28, 2010 13:31:21 GMT -5
We started moving the 10% up before they were announced, so alot of it was/is already baked in. The market isn't and hasn't been looking at this quarter's earnings, I don't think, but rather the next few quarters'. The fact that we rallied from the depths of doom and gloom bear headquarters in the face of it all, in *addition* to the better than expected earnings this quarter, has been a great sign to me that the underlying market is expecting good things going forward despite all the noise of the past couple months. Economic growth numbers remain firmly positive, and the latest FOMC minutes say that the Fed still sees moderate economic growth. The general consensus is that companies are not dipping into their bloated coffers and expanding and hiring because they don't trust this Administration and its policies - and I can't blame them. As long as they don't start investing in their own businesses I see us going NOWHERE FAST. Always a game of catchup. Companies cut workers too slowly, and hire them back too slowly. Kind of like analyst estimates, upgrades/downgrades. Rarely ahead of the curve. I think company's aren't hiring too much yet and that you see hrs worked per employee going up because they don't want to hire too soon just in case the economy does double dip. Market/Ecomonic doubts are not confined to traders/investors. I don't think it has nearly as much to do with the administration as alot of you do. The market will force people to step in when it continues moving higher, just as it always has. No one seems to remember the other rallies, but they always start out this way with everyone doubting them for reasons X, Y, and Z. Then by the time the market is clearly in an uptrend, everyone is too late. Companies will be forced to hire more workers when the employees they have are worn out from all the extra hrs and economic activity continues increasing. That's what I'm seeing at my company at least.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 28, 2010 13:33:19 GMT -5
We started moving the 10% up before they were announced, so alot of it was/is already baked in. The market isn't and hasn't been looking at this quarter's earnings, I don't think, but rather the next few quarters'. The fact that we rallied from the depths of doom and gloom bear headquarters in the face of it all, in *addition* to the better than expected earnings this quarter, has been a great sign to me that the underlying market is expecting good things going forward despite all the noise of the past couple months. Economic growth numbers remain firmly positive, and the latest FOMC minutes say that the Fed still sees moderate economic growth. The general consensus is that companies are not dipping into their bloated coffers and expanding and hiring because they don't trust this Administration and its policies - and I can't blame them. As long as they don't start investing in their own businesses I see us going NOWHERE FAST. I wouldn't say that's a consensus view at all. Investment will be slow because there's a 30% output gap.
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Post by elle on Jul 28, 2010 13:33:38 GMT -5
pcx bottom uptrend F here
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Post by jack on Jul 28, 2010 13:35:41 GMT -5
pcx bottom uptrend F here "F"? I'll lookn in Acronyms...
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Post by ccash04 on Jul 28, 2010 13:37:39 GMT -5
fork
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Post by jack on Jul 28, 2010 13:40:19 GMT -5
The general consensus is that companies are not dipping into their bloated coffers and expanding and hiring because they don't trust this Administration and its policies - and I can't blame them. As long as they don't start investing in their own businesses I see us going NOWHERE FAST. I wouldn't say that's a consensus view at all. Investment will be slow because there's a 30% output gap. Well..you wouldn't - but these guys do: www.uschamber.com/jobs.htm
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 28, 2010 13:42:38 GMT -5
I see a lot of stocks finding S on a rising 5dma. Spy made a to the penny touch of its.
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Post by elle on Jul 28, 2010 13:43:08 GMT -5
not showering not working, as this so depressing, I'll try something new. GL rest of day, Boys and Maxi and Jack
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Post by maxi on Jul 28, 2010 13:44:08 GMT -5
pcx bottom uptrend F here "F"? I'll lookn in Acronyms... Fork?
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Post by brosin on Jul 28, 2010 13:46:22 GMT -5
That kind of brings me to something slightly off topic.
Job Creation: this term always has and always will make me cringe. Capitalism and free markets create jobs automatically. When it becomes a goal of a government to "create jobs," it is simply delaying the inevitable and distoring prices, which is unbeneficial for consumers because of the deadweight losses incurred through the distortions. Even if jobs are created, these jobs will be very inefficient, the economy will be running at less than full capacity, and eventually the market will correct this on its own through a painful process.
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Post by jack on Jul 28, 2010 13:47:54 GMT -5
That's been a money line for a while - that 22.60. Back on the FAS 22.60 now - lol!!!
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Post by brosin on Jul 28, 2010 13:52:56 GMT -5
Bro, interesting interview on Bloomberg yesterday with Robert Schiller. He said usually he could call a reversal pretty close, but now he does not know what housing will do, because the gov't interference will have unknown effect. That sounds a little funny though considering how much interference we've seen over the past 2 decades. Was he saying he hadn't been able to call a reversal in 20 years, or that this interference was somehow new (I ask because for political reasons / context behind when he says this)?
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 28, 2010 13:52:59 GMT -5
I wouldn't say that's a consensus view at all. Investment will be slow because there's a 30% output gap. Well..you wouldn't - but these guys do: www.uschamber.com/jobs.htmNo interest in getting into a political discussion. US Chamber of Commerce is a republican org, so of course that's their view. Look at their political donations and election year party support.
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Post by deadmoney95 on Jul 28, 2010 14:00:10 GMT -5
That kind of brings me to something slightly off topic. Job Creation: this term always has and always will make me cringe. Capitalism and free markets create jobs automatically. When it becomes a goal of a government to "create jobs," it is simply delaying the inevitable and distoring prices, which is unbeneficial for consumers because of the deadweight losses incurred through the distortions. Even if jobs are created, these jobs will be very inefficient, the economy will be running at less than full capacity, and eventually the market will correct this on its own through a painful process. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Works_Progress_Administrationcapitalism and free markets also create crushing unemployment, recessions, and depressions. you're not entirely wrong, but neither was roosevelt. we ain't gonna figure out the right balance on this thread, so i say let's not pretend we can.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 28, 2010 14:01:04 GMT -5
Bro, interesting interview on Bloomberg yesterday with Robert Schiller. He said usually he could call a reversal pretty close, but now he does not know what housing will do, because the gov't interference will have unknown effect. That sounds a little funny though considering how much interference we've seen over the past 2 decades. Was he saying he hadn't been able to call a reversal in 20 years, or that this interference was somehow new (I ask because for political reasons / context behind when he says this)? It's pretty straight forward. There's roughly 10 years of excess housing stock in the US thanks to the building boom in the past decade coupled with a doubling in household debt. Our choices are either to use public policy to smooth the pricing curve or let the market set price which would likely cause a collapse in pricing, a spike higher in defaults, therefore a spike higher in inventory and the start of a pretty vicious negative spiral. Neither option is great but under the circumstances I think there's a clear favorite.
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Post by elle on Jul 28, 2010 14:03:00 GMT -5
Bro, interesting interview on Bloomberg yesterday with Robert Schiller. He said usually he could call a reversal pretty close, but now he does not know what housing will do, because the gov't interference will have unknown effect. That sounds a little funny though considering how much interference we've seen over the past 2 decades. Was he saying he hadn't been able to call a reversal in 20 years, or that this interference was somehow new (I ask because for political reasons / context behind when he says this)? Perhaps he meant direct interference and they had factored in community reinvestment and subprime, but I'm just guesing. You're right, the interference of the two FM's had to be huge change.
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Post by abdogman on Jul 28, 2010 14:03:28 GMT -5
BB's groweth narrow on xlf fas faz on 1m macd 0/0 1m xlf fas faz xlf 14.68 on 1m
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Post by jack on Jul 28, 2010 14:04:00 GMT -5
That kind of brings me to something slightly off topic. Job Creation: this term always has and always will make me cringe. Capitalism and free markets create jobs automatically. When it becomes a goal of a government to "create jobs," it is simply delaying the inevitable and distoring prices, which is unbeneficial for consumers because of the deadweight losses incurred through the distortions. Even if jobs are created, these jobs will be very inefficient, the economy will be running at less than full capacity, and eventually the market will correct this on its own through a painful process. Bros - you say that again esp after this Admin gives $151M to a Korean-owned subsidary for creating a couple hundred jobs in MI when the demand is...highly questionable: www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/07/15/AR2010071500461.htmlwww.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/07/14/AR2010071406046.html
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 28, 2010 14:06:16 GMT -5
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Post by ask2lern on Jul 28, 2010 14:10:34 GMT -5
LOD Tick -1088.........................GL
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Post by abdogman on Jul 28, 2010 14:10:43 GMT -5
BB's spreading on 1m xlf fas faz fas on lower channel macd neg xlf fas xlf 14.64 on 1m
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Post by maxi on Jul 28, 2010 14:10:48 GMT -5
So it appears the market does have some issues with the numbers... I just came back was outside for 10 or more minutes and voila we are finally pulling back.... Snap I think it was ..was calling for 1103 yesterday. My problem as usual is knowing how far the pullback will go....
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Post by deadmoney95 on Jul 28, 2010 14:14:01 GMT -5
i miss matt.
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