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Post by abdogman on Jul 28, 2010 10:39:02 GMT -5
2.1 mil share grn candle spike in vol on xlf last min BB's spreading xlf 14.76 on 1m
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Post by cosmic on Jul 28, 2010 10:39:19 GMT -5
Or the machines really know how to whiffle. Calls coming down but puts barely gaining or also going down. Now that's a Professional-Style Whiffle If you are not looking to liquidate the position(s) today, then perhaps looking into selling some OTM calls and/or puts to turn your long straddle into long bull and/or bear spreads - or perhaps modify them into butterfly strategy to lower risk of loss even further. Assumption on my part is that IV on LVS is going to decline with its report behind it. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butterfly_(options)Calls were on the Aug 22's Puts were on the Aug 23's Would I have to butterfly each leg? (it must be lunchtime...)
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Post by Dualism on Jul 28, 2010 10:52:23 GMT -5
I think he is placing too much emphasis on the 200 dma ( or any ma for that matter) as a potential predictor.
There is nothing magical about ma's, IMO. They are just markers or smoothing snapshots of a string of data points.
And I disagree with this statement of his also:
"And this connection is more than coincidental, as "protection buyers" look to purchase put options or VIX calls or VIX futures when the VIX is perceived as "cheap," and these actions create short-selling activity that depresses stock prices."
For one, going long options is less of market driver than shorting options because of time-premium decay.
Secondly, the VIX in the longer term is a yardstick or measure of risk and future price perception; it is not a determinant of risk. Just as a ruler does not determine the length of an object, it just simply measures it.
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Post by jack on Jul 28, 2010 10:54:52 GMT -5
Euro on downward trend
VIX's parabolic is UNDER
FAS S2 is .40something away down (unless the that 22.60 is the money line for the day)
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Post by jack on Jul 28, 2010 10:57:37 GMT -5
What would happen if someone put psychodelic colors in the Beige Book?
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Post by cosmic on Jul 28, 2010 10:58:07 GMT -5
That's been a money line for a while - that 22.60.
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Post by abdogman on Jul 28, 2010 11:01:38 GMT -5
Time fo Dogs and Lunch .......back as per usual
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Post by Dualism on Jul 28, 2010 11:02:05 GMT -5
I didn't think your call options would be so much in-the-money. You were definitely bullish at the outset when you bought the long straddle, which now proves to have been a smart decision.
Well, it seems with another $1 rise in LVS, your gain in the calls may cover the loss in the puts. If that happens then I would either dump the calls or sell ATM or slightly ITM calls (strike 28 or 27) to spread the long calls.
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Post by cosmic on Jul 28, 2010 11:05:13 GMT -5
I don't think it gets another $1, honestly.
I chose the ITM calls because of TP, which seemed HUGE on the lesser ITM calls. I had bought the puts before the calls, as I expected some downward pressure early. I was right, and had racked up a few bucks there before executing on the calls, which was what I wanted.
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Post by Rich on Jul 28, 2010 11:07:52 GMT -5
There may be some whiffle today, but at least the zig zam seems to be out the window.
Sideways until eod, then a modest rise.
Pssssst.....PCX
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Post by Dualism on Jul 28, 2010 11:11:34 GMT -5
Well, another impeccable display of timing there, Cosmic. Well done.
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Post by jack on Jul 28, 2010 11:13:21 GMT -5
Won der what a FAS 10min green then a red doji mean? a bad Christmas early?
XLF stochs abv 80
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Post by ccash04 on Jul 28, 2010 11:20:38 GMT -5
I've been in and out of MOS on the vacay, but I'm out majority of the position today. I like MON but longer term not so sure about either of these names as RoundUp has a cheaper alternative as it went off patent and MOS has that mining mess in FL. I am in BUCY and lets hope it gets back to its 52 week highs
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Post by cosmic on Jul 28, 2010 11:23:59 GMT -5
Well, another impeccable display of timing there, Cosmic. Well done. Now if I only had the fotolias to trade more than a handful of contracts ;D
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Post by ccash04 on Jul 28, 2010 11:25:59 GMT -5
If you are not looking to liquidate the position(s) today, then perhaps looking into selling some OTM calls and/or puts to turn your long straddle into long bull and/or bear spreads - or perhaps modify them into butterfly strategy to lower risk of loss even further. Assumption on my part is that IV on LVS is going to decline with its report behind it. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butterfly_(options)Calls were on the Aug 22's Puts were on the Aug 23's Would I have to butterfly each leg? (it must be lunchtime...) Butterfly is a four legged trade, it just consists of put and call spread... Only thing about them is when you get larger number of contracts it can be a bitch to unwind the trade if needed. Personally if I am not actively managing the trade each and everyday I just use butterflies as a cheaper spec. play (low capital outlay w/chance to make a lot of money for cheap)..
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Post by maxi on Jul 28, 2010 11:30:37 GMT -5
I've been in and out of MOS on the vacay, but I'm out majority of the position today. I like MON but longer term not so sure about either of these names as RoundUp has a cheaper alternative as it went off patent and MOS has that mining mess in FL. I am in BUCY and lets hope it gets back to its 52 week highs Thanks for the info Ccash!
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Post by jack on Jul 28, 2010 11:36:36 GMT -5
Well, another impeccable display of timing there, Cosmic. Well done. Now if I only had the fotolias to trade more than a handful of contracts ;D DON'T drink out of plastic baby bottles or hang onto the thermal paper tape receipts from the supermarket (they are loaded with those bisphenol-A thingies which promt estrogen growth www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/07/26/AR2010072605001.html
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Post by ccash04 on Jul 28, 2010 11:36:53 GMT -5
I've been in and out of MOS on the vacay, but I'm out majority of the position today. I like MON but longer term not so sure about either of these names as RoundUp has a cheaper alternative as it went off patent and MOS has that mining mess in FL. I am in BUCY and lets hope it gets back to its 52 week highs Thanks for the info Ccash! Watching the futures on soybeans and corn (corn up over 4% today), the Ag names should continue to perform as the grains have been impressive.
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Post by maxi on Jul 28, 2010 11:48:19 GMT -5
Thanks for the info Ccash! Watching the futures on soybeans and corn (corn up over 4% today), the Ag names should continue to perform as the grains have been impressive. Where do you watch those futures?
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Post by ccash04 on Jul 28, 2010 11:51:13 GMT -5
try finviz.com pretty good one under futures tab
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Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 28, 2010 11:52:49 GMT -5
I'm in comcast internet hell today. I escaped from att internet hell two months ago. It's like swimming from an island of head hunters and ending up on an island of cannibals. GS - chart.ly/358nqyJust needs a reasonable market and it will go, imo.Tight range again today. The last two days of the month have been weak 10/11 times. Month end is Friday.
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Post by cosmic on Jul 28, 2010 11:52:56 GMT -5
Maxi, if you have TDA you can watch them live with ThinkorSwim
I just did some nibbling.
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Post by maxi on Jul 28, 2010 11:55:06 GMT -5
Maxi, if you have TDA you can watch them live with ThinkorSwim I just did some nibbling. Nibbling ags? Bucy? Options?
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Post by ask2lern on Jul 28, 2010 11:55:21 GMT -5
Well I am sure we can all agree that the fast money crew is not always the best source of information........................with that said I do respect Jon Najarians calls and he has been very hot as of late he said vix made a triple bottom and markets are going to head lower.....................FWIW......................he was smack on calling GS Rev #'s and preceding market reaction and also on APPL and IBM.....................GLTA
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Post by maxi on Jul 28, 2010 11:58:10 GMT -5
Secretly I was waiting for BUCY at 56. But it has a mind of it's own...
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Post by ccash04 on Jul 28, 2010 11:58:33 GMT -5
Maxi, if you have TDA you can watch them live with ThinkorSwim I just did some nibbling. Nibbling ags? Bucy? Options? I think he's talking about futures, I watch them on the ThinkorSwim software but finviz.com is a good one if you don't have TDA/TOS.
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Post by maxi on Jul 28, 2010 11:59:58 GMT -5
BG Bunge snuck it's earnings out early. Was supposed to be tomorrow before market. Was not good. stock down 1.5%. hard to tell what it will do tho until CC...
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Post by jack on Jul 28, 2010 11:59:59 GMT -5
Well...the 5-yr auction must've done well...
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Post by clearwaters on Jul 28, 2010 12:02:05 GMT -5
Miss Elle, you out there? Do you know what's going on with EK? Good time to buy?
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Post by ccash04 on Jul 28, 2010 12:02:24 GMT -5
Secretly I was waiting for BUCY at 56. But it has a mind of it's own... I see good support around 57.50-58 area.. looking for a b/t then go
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