Post by ukarlewitz on Jul 27, 2010 17:57:29 GMT -5
If you are a bear, you saw a reversal candle today. If you are a bull, you saw a bullish consolidation take place. Personally, I think pattern takes precedence over a candle, but we'll see. Nymo became less overbought - market apparently correctly through time instead of price.
TNX held gains as it moves to 3.1%. Copper, like SPX, is consolidating big gains right at its 200dma. JPY closed below 114. To be clear, both USTs and JPY are in bullish uptrends, but they are on S and could be weakening. Or not. TLT looks like it has formed an 'M' - a small rise might set up an 'MA' - very bearish for USTs and bullish for equities. It's early but worth watching.
Vix closed under the 200dma for a second day. Trend is down.
I'd watch smh. Its knocking on the door of 29 and quad R. It wants break higher and its been leading the market. The MAs are very bullish.
I like Alphatrends comments below.
Caldaro - Today's opening rally took the SPX to it highest level since the rally began earlier this month. In the 3+ weeks since the SPX 1011 low, the market has rallied 110 points to SPX 1121 or nearly 11%. The DOW is the first of the four major US indices to confirm an uptrend. We're expecting the other three to follow shortly. Currently 6 of the 13 foreign indices we follow are in confirmed uptrends. And,5 of the 9 SPX sectors are in confirmed uptrends along with the NYAD, NYA and TRAN. It certainly appears the two "buy" signals the market generated over the past few weeks, which usually precede uptrend confirmations, will be spot on again. Short term OEW charts remain positive and impulsing.
Cobra - the market opened high then closed in red forming kind of so called bearish reversal day, but who cares anyway. Seasonality is generally bullish for tomorrow.
Bespoke - So far this earnings season, 10% of US companies have raised guidance while 2.7% have lowered guidance. There are still a significant amount of companies left to report this season, but for now, guidance numbers have been very strong. Also worth noting is that this is the fifth straight quarter where positive guidance has outnumbered negative guidance. The second longest streak (since 2001) of positive guidance spreads was three quarters from Q3 '03 to Q1 '04.
Bulkowski - It appears that the indexes are headed higher, much to my surprise. There is overhead resistance nearby, setup by prior peaks in January 2010 and June. It could blow past them, but I think not. My guess is the Dow industrials, for example, with form a wide head-and-shoulders looking top. I don't expect this to be confirmed but the shape should appear followed by a turn down in September, leaving a right shoulder visible. I expect the SPX index to continue moving higher in the short term, to 1140 which is where resistance setup by the peak in Jan and June reside.
Alphatrends - After breaking past 110 on Friday, the SPY has shown a steady pattern of higher highs and higher lows, a break below ~111.00 (also Wednesdays S1 level) would turn the pattern to lower highs and lower lows. A short term break of support would not be a big concern with a rising 5 DMA and a more significant potential support level at 110, but it would be reason to become more defensive. That defensive posture would also be prudent because the market has been closing right at the 200 day (black line on inset chart) moving average and the 50% retracement of the high to low range for the year (also on inset chart). If the market can hold up in this area it could be setting up for a test of the 113 level which is the basis of the lower high on the weekly timeframe (not shown). Right now there are a lot of stocks holding up well and that suggests that the market will be able to hold its ground, but as we have seen over the last several weeks, we need to be willing to be flexible with our opinion.
Murphy - the 10-Year Treasury Note Yield (TNX) also still in a downtrend. A close above its July intra-day high at 31.24 is needed to reverse its three-month downtrend. Until that happens, the current stock rally will remain unsupported by Treasury bonds. Gold Trust Shares (GLD) falling below their late May low on heavy volume. That sets up an important test of its 200-day moving average. Gold stocks are also suffering. Chart 12 shows the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) falling below its 200-day line. A test of its May low near 46 appears likely.
TNX held gains as it moves to 3.1%. Copper, like SPX, is consolidating big gains right at its 200dma. JPY closed below 114. To be clear, both USTs and JPY are in bullish uptrends, but they are on S and could be weakening. Or not. TLT looks like it has formed an 'M' - a small rise might set up an 'MA' - very bearish for USTs and bullish for equities. It's early but worth watching.
Vix closed under the 200dma for a second day. Trend is down.
I'd watch smh. Its knocking on the door of 29 and quad R. It wants break higher and its been leading the market. The MAs are very bullish.
I like Alphatrends comments below.
Caldaro - Today's opening rally took the SPX to it highest level since the rally began earlier this month. In the 3+ weeks since the SPX 1011 low, the market has rallied 110 points to SPX 1121 or nearly 11%. The DOW is the first of the four major US indices to confirm an uptrend. We're expecting the other three to follow shortly. Currently 6 of the 13 foreign indices we follow are in confirmed uptrends. And,5 of the 9 SPX sectors are in confirmed uptrends along with the NYAD, NYA and TRAN. It certainly appears the two "buy" signals the market generated over the past few weeks, which usually precede uptrend confirmations, will be spot on again. Short term OEW charts remain positive and impulsing.
Cobra - the market opened high then closed in red forming kind of so called bearish reversal day, but who cares anyway. Seasonality is generally bullish for tomorrow.
Bespoke - So far this earnings season, 10% of US companies have raised guidance while 2.7% have lowered guidance. There are still a significant amount of companies left to report this season, but for now, guidance numbers have been very strong. Also worth noting is that this is the fifth straight quarter where positive guidance has outnumbered negative guidance. The second longest streak (since 2001) of positive guidance spreads was three quarters from Q3 '03 to Q1 '04.
Bulkowski - It appears that the indexes are headed higher, much to my surprise. There is overhead resistance nearby, setup by prior peaks in January 2010 and June. It could blow past them, but I think not. My guess is the Dow industrials, for example, with form a wide head-and-shoulders looking top. I don't expect this to be confirmed but the shape should appear followed by a turn down in September, leaving a right shoulder visible. I expect the SPX index to continue moving higher in the short term, to 1140 which is where resistance setup by the peak in Jan and June reside.
Alphatrends - After breaking past 110 on Friday, the SPY has shown a steady pattern of higher highs and higher lows, a break below ~111.00 (also Wednesdays S1 level) would turn the pattern to lower highs and lower lows. A short term break of support would not be a big concern with a rising 5 DMA and a more significant potential support level at 110, but it would be reason to become more defensive. That defensive posture would also be prudent because the market has been closing right at the 200 day (black line on inset chart) moving average and the 50% retracement of the high to low range for the year (also on inset chart). If the market can hold up in this area it could be setting up for a test of the 113 level which is the basis of the lower high on the weekly timeframe (not shown). Right now there are a lot of stocks holding up well and that suggests that the market will be able to hold its ground, but as we have seen over the last several weeks, we need to be willing to be flexible with our opinion.
Murphy - the 10-Year Treasury Note Yield (TNX) also still in a downtrend. A close above its July intra-day high at 31.24 is needed to reverse its three-month downtrend. Until that happens, the current stock rally will remain unsupported by Treasury bonds. Gold Trust Shares (GLD) falling below their late May low on heavy volume. That sets up an important test of its 200-day moving average. Gold stocks are also suffering. Chart 12 shows the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) falling below its 200-day line. A test of its May low near 46 appears likely.