PPDT - PP-XLF = 14.60 - 10/15 Friday

[brosin]

Caldaro
caldaro.wordpress.com/

Overnight the Asian markets were mostly higher. Europe opened higher but closed mixed. US index futures were higher overnight but pulled back heading into the open. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims came in higher: 462K v 445K, the PPI stayed positive: +0.4% v +0.4%, and the Trade deficit widened: -$46.3 bln v -$42.8 bln. The market opened relatively flat at SPX 1177. It had closed at SPX 1178 yesterday. Within the first few minutes it dipped down to SPX 1174 and then moved up to 1179 by 11:00. That was the high for the day. The market then started to pullback. With only a few upward bounces along the way the SPX hit 1167 by 3:00. Then with a slightly oversold short term condition the market started to rally. Nearing the close the SPX hit 1174 and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.20%. Bonds lost 21 ticks, Crude slipped 35 cents, Gold rose $10.00, and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX drops back to 1168 and then 1146, with resistance at 1176 and then 1187. Short term momentum continued to decline from yesterday’s extremely overbought condition and hit oversold late in the afternoon. Tomorrow, FED chairman Bernanke gives a speech at the Boston FED at 8:15. At 8:30 the CPI, Retail sales and the NY FED will be reported. At 10:00 UofM Consumer sentiment and Business inventories. At 2:00 the Budget deficit and it is Options expiration friday. Busy day.

While we were expecting this week to be the best part of the recent rally the market has had other intentions. Today the market opened well enough but the pullback was a bit more than expected. This, however, helped to clear up the short term count. We continue to label the rally from SPX 1123 to 1150 as Minute wave one. Then the irregular pullback to SPX 1132 as Minute wave two. Next, the rally to SPX 1169 appears to be Minute wave three, and the pullback to SPX 1156 Minute wave four. We posted this count earlier. Now it appears that Minor wave 3 may have ended at SPX 1184 yesterday, and we have just posted a tentative green Minor 3 label at that level. The Minute waves appear confirmed and are in dark green. This suggests that the upside for Intermediate wave three could be limited by the wave relationships and the OEW 1222 pivot in the coming days/weeks. Best to your trading tomorrow. Options expiration and the techs are current rallying off of Google’s after the close earnings report. Could be a wild day.

[brosin]

Cobra
cobrasmarketview.blogspot.com/

The bottom line, the short-term trend is up but I hold no long position overnight.

Mixed signals for tomorrow as according Stock Trader’s Almanac: October expiration day, Dow down 4 straight and 5 of last 6. But on the other hand, we’ve had 7 straight up Fridays ever since the current rally started.





SHORT-TERM: TODAY’S LOW IS NOT THE LOW

The rebound before the close as well as GOOG ER in AH may feel like the pullback was over. However, most likely today’s low is not the low, so either SPX will rebound to higher high before pullback which looks more likely the case now, or it may continue to pullback tomorrow, after all, from the SPY daily chart, Shooting Star plus Hanging Man could mean a reversal.



Why I think today’s low is not the low? Although in the most bullish case, it may take 2 to 3 weeks before visiting today’s low.

Percent of SPX stocks 1 std dev above MA(50) still is too high, see highlighted in red, although higher high was guaranteed thereafter but also today’s low was guaranteed to be revisited.



Institutional Selling Action from Stocktiming. It looks more and more like the April case as institutions selling keeps increasing despite the market keeps having higher high, so bulls still need to be careful.




INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BEARISH BIASED

Maintain the intermediate-term bearish view. Below are summaries of all the arguments I’ve been blah blah recently:

1. As mentioned in 10/08 Market Recap, commercial (smart money) holds record high short positions against Nasdaq 100.
2. As mentioned in 10/08 Market Recap, AAII bull ratio (4-week average) is way too bullish.
3. As mentioned in 10/08 Market Recap, institution selling keeps increasing.
4. As mentioned in 10/08 Market Recap, statistically, a strong off-season could mean a weaker earning season.

[kbk3ck]

Thanks Bros. Nite all. See yall in the morning.

[brosin]

np Joe, I was still up so wanted to get it started out

see ya in the am

[benvestor]

night folks, gl tomorrow

[ask2lern]

Thanks for getting things going Bros…………..I included XLF……………
Here are the pivots……….…hope everyone has a great day …………………GLTA

XLF

R3 15.18
R2 14.89
R1 14.75

PP 14.60

S1 14.46
S2 14.31
S3 14.02



GOLD

R4 1415.87
midpoint 1409.57
R3 1403.27
midpoint 1396.97
R2 1390.67
Midpoint 1388.55
R1 1386.43
midpoint 1382.25

PP 1378.07

midpoint 1375.95
S1 1373.83
midpoint 1369.65
S2 1365.47
midpoint 1359.17
S3 1352.87
midpoint 1346.57
S4 1340.27


SILVER

R4 26.36
midpoint 26.04
R3 25.73
midpoint 25.41
R2 25.10
midpoint 24.99
R1 24.87
midpoint 24.67

PP 24.47

midpoint 24.36
S1 24.24
midpoint 24.05
S2 23.84
midpoint 23.52
S3 23.21
midpoint 22.89
S4 22.58



IMW

R3 72.58
R2 71.52
R1 71.02

PP 70.46

S1 69.96
S2 69.40
S3 68.34



TNA

R4 60.51
midpoint 59.31
R3 58.11
midpoint 56.91
R2 55.71
midpoint 55.16
R1 54.60
midpoint 53.96

PP 53.31

midpoint 52.76
S1 52.20
midpoint 51.56
S2 50.91
midpoint 49.71
S3 48.51
midpoint 47.31
S4 46.11

TZA

R4 25.63
Midpoint 25.13
R3 24.63
midpoint 24.13
R2 23.63
midpoint 23.37
R1 23.10
midpoint 22.87

PP 22.63

midpoint 22.37
S1 22.10
midpoint 21.87
S2 21.63
midpoint 21.13
S3 20.63
midpoint 20.13
S4 19.63

SDS

R3 29.11
R2 28.50
R1 28.17

PP 27.89

S1 27.56
S2 27.28
S3 26.67

………………………..GLTA

[ask2lern]

From www.optionmonster.com .............................GLTA

Consumer is focus of today's releases
October 15, 2010 Fri 5:30 AM CT


Today's calendar is very full, with a steady stream of reports before the market opens. Three of today's reports will be released an hour before the market opens, which could create some volatile trading conditions.

In addition, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak on low interest rate environments and the impact on monetary policy at 8:15a.m. ET.
The Consumer Price Index comes out at 8:30 a.m. ET. The CPI is released with and without food and energy. Both categories are included in the headline index number, which most economists forecast at 0.2 percent. The range is from a non-inflationary 0.1 percent to a more inflationary 0.4 percent.

Without food and energy, the so-called core number is expected to come in at 0.1 percent. The range for this number is from a non-inflationary zero to a more inflationary 0.2 percent.

Currencies, bonds, and commodities may be affected more than stocks if the index numbers come in within the expected ranges. Given the surprise rise in the Producer Price Index yesterday, bonds may be particularly sensitive to the news.

Retail Sales will be watched closely as it too is released at 8:30 a.m. ET. Expectations are for headline sales to grow by 0.5 percent with auto sales included and by 0.4 percent without cars. The range for the headline number is very wide, from a bearish -0.1 percent to a bullish 0.8 percent. Without autos the range is even wider, from a bearish -0.4 percent to a bullish 0.7 percent.

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey will be reported at 8:30 a.m. ET. Consensus calls for a reading of 6.15, a small bump from last month's 4.14. The range is from a bearish 4.6 to a more bullish 12.5. A negative reading would be the bearish outlier as no economist has forecast that.

The Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for October comes out at 9:55 a.m. ET. This is the first glimpse of consumer sentiment for the month and is often full of wide ranges and surprises. There are three main components to the report: the headline number in aggregate, current conditions, and future expectations.

The headline number is forecast to come in at 69, a very small increase from the final September reading of 68.2. The range, however, is very wide from a bearish 64.4 to a very bullish 73.5. Current conditions are expected to show a reading of 79.8, roughly in line with last month. The range is quite narrow at a slightly bearish 78 to a bullish 82.

The wild card in the report will be future expectations. Traders key in on this number as a leading indicator of potential consumer spending. It is expected to come in at 61.5, a moderate increase from last month's 60.9. The range is from a very bearish 59 to a more bullish 63.

Business Inventories will be out at 10 a.m. ET. They are expected to show a gain of 0.5 percent, down from last month's 1 percent. That is a more or less neutral number. The range is neutral, from a modest gain of 0.2 percent to 0.6 percent.

A large drop or a large build in inventories is the only way in which the number could be a surprise. The interpretation of the reading at this part of the cycle is that drops could be a warning sign that businesses are not confident of future sales.

A larger increase, as long as it does not grow excessively, could be seen as confirmation that businesses expect demand to be robust. The rationale is that businesses build inventory only when they expect stronger sales.

By: Mike Yamamoto

[ask2lern]

From www. optionmonster.com ............................GLTA

Google run may move index levels
October 15, 2010 Fri 5:45 AM CT


The major indexes staged a turnaround into the close yesterday, leaving them flat on the day. That followed some quite bearish economic data early in the morning and some very nasty downside in the financial stocks, fueled by concerns of still more issues in the mortgage market.

After the close Google managed to handily beat earnings expectations, sending its stock up more than 9 percent in after-hours trading. The upswing lifted other Internet names and major tech stocks such as Apple.

Yesterday I provided additional upside objectives for the indexes, which remain as they were. If necessary, I will update them today after the bulk of economic reports in the early market hours have been digested.

Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

First support is at 2040.58. First resistance is at 2059.42, and thereafter at 2067.06.

For the Nasdaq 100 Index Tracking Stock (QQQQ) first support is at $50.21. First resistance is at $50.65, and $50.75 thereafter.

S&P 500 (SPX)

First support is at 1170.48. First resistance is at 1186.32.

For the Standard & Poor's Depository Receipts (SPY) first support is at $117.36. First resistance is at $118.78.

Russell 2000 (RUT)

First support is at 700.97. First resistance is at 719.70.

For the iShares Trust Russell 2000 Index Fund (IWM) first support is at $70. First resistance is at $72.10.

By: Mike Yamamoto

[ask2lern]

From www.optionmonster.com .......................GLTA

Insurers rally as big banks struggle
October 15, 2010 Fri 5:53 AM CT


Big banks such as Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan are struggling, and now capital is shifting to financial guarantors such as MBIA, Radian, and Ambac Financial.

optionMONSTER's Heat Seeker tracking system detected a flurry of bullish activity in those companies and others yesterday even as the broader financial sector struggled.

MBIA was the busiest of the group, with option volume surging to 15 times greater than average. Investors snapped up the November 11 calls and the November 12s, paying $0.99 to $2.13 and $0.52 to $1.77, respectively, for large blocks.

Ambac, which normally trades about 6,000 contracts, saw volume of 76,817 and heavy activity in the January 1.50 and October 1 calls before closing the day up 19 percent to $0.95. ABK was the biggest winner in the group, though it has been trading for under $1 for most of the last year as investors doubted its ability to survive as a going concern.

RDN climbed 6.83 percent to $8.91 and saw volume of more than 22,000 contracts, dominated by call buying. A similar pattern also appeared in Assured Guaranty and PMI.

By contrast, the Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) exchange-traded fund, which tracks the broader financial sector, fell 1.78 percent to $14.60. Large banks and brokerages such as GS and JPM have been leading the sector to the downside, following a pattern of weakness that has been in place for months as the economy deleverages and underwriting fees get squeezed.


By: Mike Yamamoto

[abdogman]

Good Morning Gang.......Bros and Ask thx for the info and nmbrs...GLTA!

back for the open !

[ask2lern]

SPY PIVOTS

R4 121.27
midpoint 120.62
R3 119.98
midpoint 119.33
R2 118.69
midpoint 118.38
R1 118.07
midpoint 117.74

PP 117.40

midpoint 117.09
S1 116.78
midpoint 116.45
S2 116.11
midpoint 115.46
S3 114.82
midpoint 114.17
S4 113.53

These are the regular pivots...........................GLTA

[deadmoney95]

Carl F (note the acceleration of S&P eminis going to 1216 from "over the next few months" to "next few weeks"):

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1174-87. From the 1185-90 zone a break of 30-40 points lasting a few trading days is likely. The ES will move above 1216 over the next few weeks.

[abdogman]

Oct 15, 2010 7:59:17 GMT -5 deadmoney95 said:

Carl F (note the acceleration of S&P eminis going to 1216 from "over the next few months" to "next few weeks"):

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1174-87. From the 1185-90 zone a break of 30-40 points lasting a few trading days is likely. The ES will move above 1216 over the next few weeks.

so noted!

[ask2lern]

From stocktwits

TradingTheOdds
w/ $SPY opening up >= +0.40% on OE, $SPY was trading below the open at the end of the 1st hour on 41 out of 55 occurrences (since 1990). $$


.......................GLTA

[abdogman]

xlf 14.60 on 1m

[abdogman]

xlf 14.57 on 1m

[abdogman]

macd neg last 2m on 1m xlf fas
xlf 14.55 on 1m

[abdogman]

xlf 14.52 on 1m

[ask2lern]

My current SPY #s S117.73 PP118.09 R 118.30...............still holding SPY NOV 117's..Opened position SPY OCT 118 @ .35.....................GLTA

[abdogman]

xlf 14.48 on 1m

[abdogman]

xlf 14.50 on 1m

[ask2lern]

OUT SPY 118 PUTS @ .45 +28%...............................GL

[abdogman]

BB's narrowing for the reports on 1m xlf
xlf 14.48 on 1m

[ask2lern]

Current SPY #s S 117.63 PP 117.92 R118.22 no changes......................GLTA

[abdogman]

0955EDT

October Michigan Sentiment-prelim 67.9 vs 68.5 Briefing.com consensus, September 68.2

[ask2lern]

In SPY 118 CALLS .22.....GLTA

[ask2lern]

Added SPY 118 Calls avg .19....GLTA

[abdogman]

1000edt

August Business Inventories +0.6% vs +0.5% Briefing.com consensus, priro revised to +1.1% from +1.0%

[abdogman]

xlf 14.44 on 1m

[abdogman]

0955edt

October Michigan Sentiment-prelim 67.9 vs 68.5 Briefing.com consensus, September 68.