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Post by triggerhappy on Mar 9, 2010 16:17:07 GMT -5
Nice observation UK. Do we know what the catalyst was for the drop today? bumping into resistance?
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Mikey
Broker/Dealer
Posts: 581
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Post by Mikey on Mar 9, 2010 16:19:50 GMT -5
Yes D-Money if you learn anything from this thread, you will learn how to be a bagholder. I am a shining example of that right now in my IRA...where I am holding 5 short ETF's that are all down an average of 10% BUT I hold them with pride and think we're just a few days away from turning things around here.
That said - I have been on a ROLL in my 401K where I have a restriction of trading every 30 days in/out of an account, but have been hitting on all cylinders the past few months - after getting my ass HANDED to me in 2007-2008. I'm a saver and have a pretty good balance for someone my age, but got killed those two years because I was in aggressive int'l equity, capital appreciation, and (ugh) Bill Miller's Legg Mason Value Trust whose investment motto was "the more toxic, the better" - that fund was a mix of Lehman, Bear, Wamu, all the names we've come to know and love...anyhoo - got a decent recovery in 2009 but got super bearish in Dec-Jan and moved into safe stuff until about Feb 4th.
About a month ago (2/5, 2/8, and 2/10 to be exact) I got super bullish and put it all back into Barclays Russell 2000 Growth Fund, American Century Small Cap Value Fund, UBS S&P 500 Fund, etc - got a nice 8-10% gain on those over the past month, and will probably start scaling out of them over the next couple of days - got out of the UBS S&P 500 fund today so I'm 40% safe 60% small-cap.
At some point I still want to do a full portfolio review thread, I think it'd be an interesting case study.
Have a good night all, see y'all tomorrow.
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Post by triggerhappy on Mar 9, 2010 16:24:18 GMT -5
Such a great attitude Mikey, given what you have been through recently. Exalt!
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Post by elle on Mar 9, 2010 16:24:20 GMT -5
SPY either just below or resting just on outer circle
inner circle is 1133.40
have a good evening, crew
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Post by triggerhappy on Mar 9, 2010 16:24:43 GMT -5
Fresh out of exalts...
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Mikey
Broker/Dealer
Posts: 581
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Post by Mikey on Mar 9, 2010 16:28:53 GMT -5
And UK love that EOD candle analysis thanks
Also good banter all, appreciate the new contributions from everyone - 211 posts today - up from 89 yesterday and (I believe) a record high for us!!
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Post by elle on Mar 9, 2010 16:33:44 GMT -5
one more set of numbers, these are fork edges for Wed at 4:00, and mid for Wed at 10:00
high 117.70 mid 115.15 (10:00) mid 115.55 (4:00) low 113.40
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Post by elle on Mar 9, 2010 16:40:01 GMT -5
Cash - sending this when everyone is gone in hopes you'll check in on the day.
Please come back. DM didn't know what to do with his FAS and you would have had some good input I'm sure. Besides, it isn't fair I should have a mangy coyote for a BFF.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 9, 2010 16:41:45 GMT -5
Nice observation UK. Do we know what the catalyst was for the drop today? bumping into resistance? Everyone is lining up to short at 115.14. It's inevitable that we trip earlier. So, now we have cleared out (perhaps) one line of shorts. Tomorrow, we'll see if we can get closer to the double top.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 9, 2010 16:42:50 GMT -5
Cash - sending this when everyone is gone in hopes you'll check in on the day. Please come back. DM didn't know what to do with his FAS and you would have had some good input I'm sure. Besides, it isn't fair I should have a mangy coyote for a BFF. Watch it Squirrel; I still have ticks.
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Post by ask2lern on Mar 9, 2010 16:45:31 GMT -5
Yes D-Money if you learn anything from this thread, you will learn how to be a bagholder. I am a shining example of that right now in my IRA...where I am holding 5 short ETF's that are all down an average of 10% BUT I hold them with pride and think we're just a few days away from turning things around here. That said - I have been on a ROLL in my 401K where I have a restriction of trading every 30 days in/out of an account, but have been hitting on all cylinders the past few months - after getting my ass HANDED to me in 2007-2008. I'm a saver and have a pretty good balance for someone my age, but got killed those two years because I was in aggressive int'l equity, capital appreciation, and (ugh) Bill Miller's Legg Mason Value Trust whose investment motto was "the more toxic, the better" - that fund was a mix of Lehman, Bear, Wamu, all the names we've come to know and love...anyhoo - got a decent recovery in 2009 but got super bearish in Dec-Jan and moved into safe stuff until about Feb 4th. About a month ago (2/5, 2/8, and 2/10 to be exact) I got super bullish and put it all back into Barclays Russell 2000 Growth Fund, American Century Small Cap Value Fund, UBS S&P 500 Fund, etc - got a nice 8-10% gain on those over the past month, and will probably start scaling out of them over the next couple of days - got out of the UBS S&P 500 fund today so I'm 40% safe 60% small-cap. At some point I still want to do a full portfolio review thread, I think it'd be an interesting case study. Have a good night all, see y'all tomorrow. I am with you Mikey...getting my ass handed to me on a platter.............I still have faith(well thats what I am calling it)...................you are very wise for your age.......if all people your age thought like you regarding savings we would not have the mess IMO................I would say I am a saver too but after the last 18 sessions of dropping vix all I am saving is the color RED...........LOL...... Thanks to all that participate and contribute.........................GLTA
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Post by elle on Mar 9, 2010 16:47:01 GMT -5
oh, shoot, I thought your were off riding
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Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 9, 2010 16:47:36 GMT -5
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Post by elle on Mar 9, 2010 16:55:16 GMT -5
DM, here are my swing trade FAS #s, not really good for intraday. Also note 20 will soon move up thru 50 (shorter ma up thru a longer one is bullish, however once it crosses, it will usually move down or sideways to the 20). FAS moves so fast it won't usually hit these numbers exactly.
91.70 89.46 82.40 81.38
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Post by triggerhappy on Mar 9, 2010 16:59:39 GMT -5
Nice observation UK. Do we know what the catalyst was for the drop today? bumping into resistance? Everyone is lining up to short at 115.14. It's inevitable that we trip earlier. So, now we have cleared out (perhaps) one line of shorts. Tomorrow, we'll see if we can get closer to the double top. Thank you UK. Makes great sense.
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Post by elle on Mar 9, 2010 17:03:01 GMT -5
DM, one more note, you have FAS just under the 30 min 20 ma at 84.92. It may double bottom with today's low (60 min 20), but then hopefully it bounces back above it.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 9, 2010 17:09:28 GMT -5
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Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 9, 2010 17:16:08 GMT -5
Just realized that we've had two days in a row with an up market and an up Vix. That strikes me as highly unusual. Dual, if you are around, do you have a view on this?
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Post by elle on Mar 9, 2010 17:21:05 GMT -5
Uka, that does it, you and I are just going to have to arm wrestle to settle this
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Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 9, 2010 17:33:36 GMT -5
Are you kidding - I am a coyote, you are only a squirrel. I have a rocket from ACME; you just have an overbite.
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Post by Dualism on Mar 9, 2010 17:33:44 GMT -5
Just realized that we've had two days in a row with an up market and an up Vix. That strikes me as highly unusual. Dual, if you are around, do you have a view on this? stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=t89534736981&r=3434&cmd=sendchartYes I do. It is a bearish sign. We need a closing of under 50 on the McClellan Oscillator to see bearish momentum pick up speed. stockcharts.com/charts/indices/McSumNASD.htmlI can taste it that the market is forcing hedged portfolios to add to their bullish side. Once enough committed long positions are opened, the rushing flow to the bear side will take place. There have to be trapped long positions for the market to switch direction. Yesterday I felt that it may take two days for substantive bearish flow to commence. But since the market was so recalcitrant today, I would say in the next two sessions we should see a sharp selloff. However the overwhelming bearish trend is not going to start until the oscillator penetrates the 0-line and we see a large wide separation in the Summation Index.
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Post by deadmoney95 on Mar 9, 2010 17:40:23 GMT -5
ellecat:
thanks a million. i am very grateful. indeed, thanks to all of you.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 9, 2010 18:00:16 GMT -5
[/quote]
I can taste it that the market is forcing hedged portfolios to add to their bullish side. [/quote]
Yes. Thanks for your thoughts. Always good stuff.
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Mikey
Broker/Dealer
Posts: 581
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Post by Mikey on Mar 9, 2010 18:37:22 GMT -5
you are very wise for your age.......if all people your age thought like you regarding savings we would not have the mess IMO Thanks for the kind words Ask - my parents were a great influence - super thrifty, humble people. After seeing Brokaw's BOOMERS documentary I realize how they truly were outstanding role models in the midst of a crazy consumptive generation (haha no offense to any boomers of course), scrimping for their 1st house on two teachers salaries, living in it unfurnished for years before they had kids - then not spoiling us, sending us to state schools, making us pay a share, drive cheap-a$$ cars, etc. The downturn didn't impact them much - they own their home outright, have no debt, and are conservatively invested. I'm sure they're doing better now than a lot of folks that pulled down bigger $$'s than them - all due to their discipline. For me - my trick was to just increase my 401K contribution percentage every time I got a merit increase or raise. If I had extra cash at the end of the year from a bonus, tax refund, savings, etc - threw it in my Roth IRA. A bit frustrating when I sacrificed all those years and lost half of it last year - that's why I've been studying up this year... Youtube-wise, there isn't much posted to review the day yet: Cheech is bearish - he called the Dow $10.7K top www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Tx0yLmDxMAThis guy throws out crazy calls, not too reliable - shorting AAPL at $225 with a $144 target!! www.youtube.com/watch?v=A3CLuDlaH0AThis Stockmentor guy is wishy-washy, awaiting confirmation from going bearish, pointing out hourly support as a reason to remain bullish - loves AAPL and could see it going to $275 - says FAZ is gambling and stay away, not impressed by the VIX, waiting for a close below Dow $10.5K to signal a breakdown: www.youtube.com/watch?v=mBFaQzB2a2QCramer pumping commercial real estate - better short it tomorrow - SKT looks like a good one - hate outlets almost as much as malls (SPG), big-box stores (DDR), and McMansions (TOL/HOV)...Schiff was on Fast Money saying how silly it is that homebuilders are getting upgraded by analysts at these levels. He's been screaming on CNBC that people need to STOP spending and start saving for us to put this recovery behind us. Less discretionary spending on crap, more savings and investment. He makes so much sense but his message so often falls on deaf ears... OK that's enough rambling g'nite all
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Mikey
Broker/Dealer
Posts: 581
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Post by Mikey on Mar 9, 2010 18:40:50 GMT -5
OK Cramer's calling for a rally in the banks now - that's the place to invest - the XLF chart say so, etc...
Tune in if you can - he's talking about it now
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Post by triggerhappy on Mar 9, 2010 18:54:59 GMT -5
Yes I do. It is a bearish sign. We need a closing of under 50 on the McClellan Oscillator to see bearish momentum pick up speed. stockcharts.com/charts/indices/McSumNASD.htmlI can taste it that the market is forcing hedged portfolios to add to their bullish side. Once enough committed long positions are opened, the rushing flow to the bear side will take place. There have to be trapped long positions for the market to switch direction. Yesterday I felt that it may take two days for substantive bearish flow to commence. But since the market was so recalcitrant today, I would say in the next two sessions we should see a sharp selloff. However the overwhelming bearish trend is not going to start until the oscillator penetrates the 0-line and we see a large wide separation in the Summation Index.[/quote] Yes, an exalt is in order. Thank you Dual!
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