PP-XLF = 15.26 - 3/09 Tuesday

[kryptos2009]

Good Morning Gang!!

Here is the PP Daily Thread (PPDT) data.

FROM: www.allpivotpoints.com

XLF PP=15.26
R1=15.30 R2=15.35 R3=15.39
S1=15.21 S2=15.17 S3=15.12
O=15.25 H=15.31 L=15.22 C=15.25

SPY PP=114.28
R1=114.5 R2=114.73 R3=114.95
S1=114.05 S2=113.83 S3=113.6
O=114.26 H=114.52 L=114.07 C=114.27

SPG PP=79.68
R1=80.21 R2=80.63 R3=81.16
S1=79.26 S2=78.73 S3=78.31
O=79.42 H=80.11 L=79.16 C=79.79

GS PP=169.33
R1=171.2 R2=172.56 R3=174.43
S1=167.97 S2=166.1 S3=164.74
O=167.88 H=170.69 L=167.46 C=169.84

JPM PP=42.69
R1=42.92 R2=43.25 R3=43.48
S1=42.36 S2=42.13 S3=41.8
O=42.85 H=43.03 L=42.47 C=42.59

MS PP=29.55
R1=29.77 R2=29.96 R3=30.18
S1=29.36 S2=29.14 S3=28.95
O=29.52 H=29.74 L=29.33 C=29.58

C PP=3.56
R1=3.59 R2=3.62 R3=3.65
S1=3.53 S2=3.5 S3=3.47
O=3.54 H=3.6 L=3.54 C=3.56

VIX PP=17.77
R1=17.98 R2=18.17 R3=18.38
S1=17.58 S2=17.37 S3=17.18
O=17.95 H=17.96 L=17.56 C=17.79

FROM: www.mypivots.com

UUP PP=23.6
R1=23.68 R2=23.73 R3=23.86
S1=23.55 S2=23.47 S3=23.34
O=23.54 H=23.66 L=23.53 C=23.62

FAS PP=84.14
MP=84.515 R1=84.89 MP=85.24 R2=85.59 MP=86.315 R3=87.04
MP=83.79 S1=83.44 MP=83.065 S2=82.69 MP=81.965 S3=81.24
O=83.63 H=84.83 L=83.38 C=84.2

FAZ PP=15.68
MP=15.74 R1=15.8 MP=15.875 R2=15.95 MP=16.085 R3=16.22
MP=15.605 S1=15.53 MP=15.47 S2=15.41 MP=15.275 S3=15.14
O=15.77 H=15.82 L=15.55 C=15.66

FROM: www.econoday.com

Economic Events & Analysis - 03/09/2010

7:45 AM ETICSC-Goldman Store Sales
8:55 AM ET Redbook
9:30 AM ET Charles Evans Speaks - Description: Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans speech to NABE annual policy conference in Arlington, Va.
11:30 AM ET 4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET 52-Week Bill Auction
1:00 PM ET 3-Yr Note Auction


GLTA

[timber]

thanks

[doglover]

Good Morning all. Thanks as always.

[ask2lern]

Morning Gang………………………

Here are the metals pivots

GOLD

R4 1185.37
Mid Point 1175.57
R3 1165.77
Mid Point 1155.97
R2 1146.17
Mid Point 1140.80
R1 1135.43
Mid Point 1131.00

Pivot Point 1126.57

Mid Point 1121.20
S1 1115.83
Mid Point 1111.40
S2 1106.97
Mid Point 1097.17
S3 1087.37
Mid Point 1077.57
S4 1067.77



SILVER

R4 18.59
Mid Point 18.38
R3 18.16
Mid Point 17.95
R2 17.73
Mid Point 17.62
R1 17.50
Mid Point 17.40

Pivot Point 17.30

Mid Point 17.19
S1 17.07
Mid Point 16.97
S2 16.87
Mid Point 16.66
S3 16.44
Mid Point 16.23
S4 16.01


……………………..GLTA

[Mikey]

GM all, thanks Kryptos and Ask for the marks

Ask, thought you'd be interested in this:

Gold Surprise?
club.ino.com/trading/2010/03/gold-surprise/

The move down in gold yesterday surprised many traders and flashed an exit signal based on MarketClub's daily "Trade Triangle" technology. As we have mentioned before, we felt that gold was in a broad trading range and were not optimistic that it would shoot higher.

The action yesterday confirms that we have more of a two-way market. I expect we'll see further selling on any rallies from this level.

In today's video, I share with you some thoughts I have on gold based on one important element: how gold energy fields propel this market.

(Follow link for video)

[Mikey]

Evil Speculator

China makes noises about reducing gold purchases due to price pressure. Gata continues to protest rigged market (join the club). I don’t get it. If the Gold price is being artificially kept low, why aren’t they buying more and more? If someone was offering me an asset at what I believed was fire sale prices, I would be leveraged to the hilt on zero-cost fiat paper and stacking physical next to my tuna stash. :-) Could it be that the gold bugs are already all in and, because of their book, now want an apocalypse of sorts?

The FED is just about finished with the MBS purchase program, including a lot of junk from Freddie and Fannie, the evil twins. Now, the B/S is expected to contract slowly as principal on all those mortgages is repaid over time. This has the effect of reducing liquidity in the financial system - but in a controlled manner. There has been no mention of what happens to the junk that doesn’t repay.

At the same time, the FED has drafted money market funds, apparently, into becoming reverse repo dealers. I guess if GS and company won’t take back the junk, even with clothespin on nose, there is always the American taxpayer retail suckers to take up the slack.

Meanwhile, Europe has some heavyweight IBs from the list of underwriters for debt issuance. I guess they want to remove any hint that there might be off-B/S shenanigans in the future. I wonder how many first born are going temporarily disappear over this one?

Welcome to the broken clock.

EQUITY

SPX surprised many, yesterday, by putting in a red candle (closing below the previous day’s close). the previous day had been what I call a ‘17′ bar (open at the low, close at the high). Yesterday was more of a cross, a ‘33′ given the location of the open and close to the high - low.

If the second number is higher than the first, the close was higher than the open, and vice versa. The bar is divided into 7 segments 0% - 4% - 23.6% - 38.2% - 62.8% - 76.4% - 96% - 100%.

Of the 444 ‘17′ bars that have occurred since April 21, 1982 [when SPX high low data is available], 10% of the time it is a cross type bar. ie the close is within 4% of of the open, based on the high-low.

I don’t know what this says, but it’s a beginning. The cross-type series (22, 33, 44, 55, 66) are most often followed by a ‘16′ or a ‘17′ which indicates that there is a higher prob of today being a day with the close higher than the open. This can be traded intra-day - but I don’t have all the probabilities nailed down yet - so it is difficult to manage the risk in a winning way over a large number of trades.

As well, given the probability of SPX crossing back below the 55 DMA by the 10th day over, today could be a down day. NOTE however, that the close could still be higher than the open, just lower than yesterday’s close. Got it? Good.

ES fell after the Europe open, but has found support at S2 = 1132. Pivots:

* R2: 1143 = Like we’re going to near the Jan. high when it’s NOT an opex week.
* R1: 1140 = Do-able. ES got here on Monday to put a scare in the perma-bears.
* Neutral: 1137.50 = pretty tight pivots after yesterday. This is just above interim TD resistance which was already tested just before the Europe open. Sure smells like reindeer games.
* S1: 1134.50 = Already rejected an attempt from below after the Europe open. Looks like resistance for now.
* S2: 1132 = Support for now.

[ukarlewitz]

GLD - Watch for the bounce at the confluence of the 20 and 50dmas at 108.7. Also note three lower highs. The IT guys pointed out that with the fall in Vix (fear) there was a decreased appetite for gold.

IT - possible turnaround in Vix. Bullish surge on high volume into the close in Vxx. Cobra also noted the black bar candle in Vix (marks turns). Will likely short X on any pop - 63-66. Also close to shorting USO. Will add 1/2 at 40.5.

Oscar - looking at H&S head test for confirmation of the rally today. He's basically bullish. Click here for a chart and more text. www.livewithoscar.com/modules.php?name=Content&pa=showpage&pid=1403

Looks like a possible double top to me.

Carl - Has an open 1/2 position from 1138.5. Today's range estimate is again 1131-1145. We are now at 1133.

Cobra - in addition to the Vix black bar, he noted that Vix has been down 17 of 18 days, a record streaking back to 1990. I like those odds.

Kryptos - any chance of throwing up a blank thread the night before? I usually review and some things to post the night before.

[merrillstanley]

Good Morning,
Here is your Merrill Morning Minute:
FAZ bias this morning, still believe we’re headed north eventually, but not today
Markets are in a confirmed uptrend; do note again that tute participation ratings are stuck in “E”
Leaders in the markets are continuing their push forward…
GMCR, BCSI, JCG, CAGC, VIT…retail owns earnings announcements this week
Continuing to take quick intraday gains, expect selling into runs
Anticipating a VXX/VIX run here to end the week
Sector chart patterns are/have completed cups; others are appearing to build bases
Since mid-Feb lows, there has been a fair amount of accumulation in the S&Ps
Retail once again tops Medical sector in favored investment plays; RUE, CELG, ISRG
GLTA

[abdogman]

Good Morning All kryptos/ask/mikey/uk thx for the input GLTA

[kryptos2009]

Mar 9, 2010 8:46:57 GMT -5 ukarlewitz said:

Kryptos - any chance of throwing up a blank thread the night before? I usually review and some things to post the night before.

Uka,

We can try it that way and see how it goes....

[ukarlewitz]

Spy chart: www.alphatrends.net/

Gap: 112.6-113.1. Right now we in the Fri mid day chop area. What is noteworthy is we are below Monday's lod PM.

[ukarlewitz]

Mar 9, 2010 9:19:33 GMT -5 kryptos2009 said:

Mar 9, 2010 8:46:57 GMT -5 ukarlewitz said:

Kryptos - any chance of throwing up a blank thread the night before? I usually review and some things to post the night before.

Uka,

We can try it that way and see how it goes....

Thank you. I exalt you and all your good work here.

[ukarlewitz]

Stating the obvious - the risk is we get the usual DX gap and drop today, which supports the indices.

[merrillstanley]

Stock futures suggest a moderately lower start to the session is in order. The relatively dour mood comes amid a gain by the greenback, which remains near its morning high with a 0.4% gain against competing currencies. Its advance has come largely at the cost of the euro and the pound. Analysts at Fitch kept its Negative outlook in place for Portugal's AA rating after the country announced on Monday new austerity measures. Britain's plan to halve its deficit in four years was deemed too slow by Fitch's analysts, though the deterioration in the country's credit profile has been within the tolerances of AAA country ratings. Corporate news flow has done little to lift the mood among premarket participants, even though semiconductor giant Texas Instruments (TXN) improved its earnings outlook during its midquarter update. The company's overall forecast remains in-line with Wall Street's consensus, though. Meanwhile, Cisco (CSCO) is expected to make a major announcement sometime today.

A few earnings reports have trickled across news wires since the prior session's close. Among them, Casey's General Stores (CASY) posted earnings of $0.34 per share for its latest quarter, but the results were below the consensus call for $0.38 per share. Kroger (KR) bested the consensus estimate of $0.34 per share by bringing in $0.39 per share for its latest quarter. Meanwhile, TiVo (TIVO) posted a smaller-than-expected loss of $0.09 per share for its fiscal fourth quarter. H&R Block (HRB) brought in $0.16 per share, which exceeded analysts' expectations for earnings of $0.15 per share. Stock futures still point to a lower start for the session.

[ukarlewitz]

mvis anyone? aisle 3. on sale.

[tarzan]

First off - props to the dedicated posters.
Looks like we're setting up one last little bull/bear trap ( depends on your predisposition ) scenario before we consolidate some. Bonds tomorrow ( 10 ) and Thursday ( 30 ) and opex on the horizon. A look at xlf options says under $15 imo. Look at xlf from 1/08 thru 1/21 for similarities. Regards, Mike
Sold most of my stuff Friday and the bulk of the rest yesterday. Patience, patience, patience - I keep telling myself. All the squiggly lines on my 240 min street smart pro chart are saying uncharted territory, compared with the last 70 days. They hit the mid Jan highs last week and looks aided by a pretty good squeeze. Trend is up, but consolidation after a run like we had would be good, imo.

[Mikey]

GM all - played this morning a bit differently - working out so far. On the pre-market drop in the Euro I unloaded my X short at $60.06, though its far from my point of entry in the high $56's. I'm hoping the overnight gap will fill and I'll then re-enter my short X position. So far it's floating up. Also looking at TIE for a short entry.

Took off 1/2 my VXX at $23.84 in pre-market, looking to get into that lower as well.

GLTA today

[merrillstanley]

Mikey you turning bullish on us?

[ukarlewitz]

Welcome Tarzan.

UUP doing the expected, it seems.

[ukarlewitz]

JPM good S at 42. GS retesting a downtrend line from Oct/Jan that it popped through yesterday.

[abdogman]

Xlf knocking on door of S3 at 15.12

[abdogman]

Xlf now moving up on volume at 15.18

[merrillstanley]

One year ago the stock market started to make its way off of its bear market low. Since then, the S&P 500 rallied more than 70% to its January high. After a pullback from that high, stocks have started to recover so that they are just 1% off of their January peak.

However, the stock market has taken a bit of a breather in recent action. During the prior session stocks chopped sideways in listless trade, while this morning has started on a mildly weaker note amid a stronger dollar. DJ30 -2.72 NASDAQ -0.77 SP500 -2.08 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 832/178 mln/1312 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 999/79 mln/1663

[merrillstanley]

for you ADR players

China MediaExpress signs exclusive agreement to provide television programming and advertisements for the Qingdao Airport express buses (CCME) 11.85 : Co announces that it has signed a 3-year exclusive agreement to provide television programming and advertisements on all 32 express buses originating from the Qingdao Liuting International Airport. CCME's agreement, which commenced on March 1, 2010, is with the operator of the Qingdao Airport express buses.

[jack]

Mar 9, 2010 9:14:56 GMT -5 abdogman said:

Good Morning All kryptos/ask/mikey/uk thx for the input GLTA

Good mornin' Dog & the Gang!

Just back from the yearly physical and cleared it w/ flying colors...the only surprise was when the Doc checked my balls and could only find one at which point I told him it was extracted as part of the first divorce's settlement - LOL!!!

;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

[ukarlewitz]

JPMorgan Securities cut its rating on First Solar (FSLR) and two other solar companies, saying oversupply likely would become a major issue in the second half of the year.

[Mikey]

LOL no Merrill I'm not turning bullish

Just waiting until the SPY hits $114.27 to buy back into VXX and short X - not sure I'll get a better entry on the X short than $61.

We're so close to that gapfill I don't think the bears will want to leave it there for the bulls to target

Already shorted TIE at $13.7

[abdogman]

Xlf --from 0948 thru0950 some volume looked to prop price to 15.18 then sideways since ..
Good Morn Jack

[triggerhappy]

TICK +669

[triggerhappy]

TICK +741