PP-XLF = 14.46 - 2/24 Wednesday

[kryptos2009]

Good Morning Gang,

Here are the PP numbers for today.

FROM: www.allpivotpoints.com

XLF PP=14.46
R1=14.6 R2=14.82 R3=14.96
S1=14.24 S2=14.1 S3=13.88
O=14.58 H=14.69 L=14.33 C=14.38

SPY PP=110.17
R1=110.83 R2=111.85 R3=112.51
S1=109.15 S2=108.49 S3=107.47
O=110.86 H=111.2 L=109.52 C=109.81

SPG PP=77.88
R1=78.62 R2=79.33 R3=80.07
S1=77.17 S2=76.43 S3=75.72
O=78.06 H=78.6 L=77.15 C=77.91

GS PP=157.6
R1=159.3 R2=161.9 R3=163.6
S1=155 S2=153.3 S3=150.7
O=156.81 H=160.21 L=155.91 C=156.7

JPM PP=40.29
R1=40.83 R2=41.78 R3=42.32
S1=39.34 S2=38.8 S3=37.85
O=40.9 H=41.25 L=39.76 C=39.88

MS PP=27.55
R1=28.01 R2=28.87 R3=29.33
S1=26.69 S2=26.23 S3=25.37
O=27.64 H=28.42 L=27.1 C=27.15

C PP=3.393
R1=3.436 R2=3.523 R3=3.566
S1=3.306 S2=3.263 S3=3.176
O=3.44 H=3.48 L=3.35 C=3.35

VIX PP=21.12
R1=22.18 R2=23 R3=24.06
S1=20.3 S2=19.24 S3=18.42
O=20.39 H=21.94 L=20.06 C=21.37

FROM: www.mypivots.com

UUP PP=23.77
R1=23.85 R2=23.9 R3=24.03
S1=23.72 S2=23.64 S3=23.51
O=23.73 H=23.81 L=23.68 C=23.81

FAS PP=72.56
R1=74.48 R2=77.59 R3=82.62
S1=69.45 S2=67.53 S3=62.5
O=74.16 H=75.67 L=70.64 C=71.37

FAZ PP=18.38
R1=19.11 R2=19.58 R3=20.78
S1=17.91 S2=17.18 S3=15.98
O=18 H=18.84 L=17.64 C=18.65


FROM: www.nasdaq.com

Economic Events & Analysis - 2/24/2010
7:00 AM ET - MBA Purchase Applications
10:00 AM ET - New Home Sales
10:30 AM ET - EIA Petroleum Status Report
1:00 PM ET - 5-Yr Note Auction

[Mikey]

Good morning Kryptos - thanks for posting the marks.

"You've got...exaltation" - not really the same ring as AOL's tagline

Here's the morning observations from http://www.evilspeculator.com:

Pay attention to the $200 billion just handed over to the FED by congress and the treasury. It’s not what it seems. I saw a piece on ZH, that has since disappeared, that seemed to imply that the $200 billion was a vehicle for removing liquidity from the market. This warrants further investigation, and could be how the FED “persuades” congress to ease off on the audit and provide more QE - with an equity market push-down no less. Tick. Tock. Tick. Tock.

EQUITY

I expect today to be green. This means that SPX will close above yesterday’s close at 1094.60. I have no overarching reason for this other than the fact that 3 red days in a row is a rare occurence - usually reserved for waterfalls in this market. I expect SPX to bounce off of the short-term trend line that was resistance from Feb 8th - and should now be support, IMO. However, the GARTLEY pattern is still valid. I’m still looking for a general down trend to the 1058.50 - 1069.50 range.

Here are the numbers I get for SPX:

X = 1150.45 (Jan 19)
A = 1044.50 (Feb 5)
B = 1109.98 (Feb 19, 22)
C = 1058.50 - 1069.50 (projected range)
D = 1124 - 1135 (projected range) Go short here if the pattern holds.

In summary, the short term trend is down, but today could be an up day if recent market behaviour continues. In this environment, I would still feel more comfortable with the risks in a short trade, than with a long trade - because MY dominant trend is down. That being said, I believe that there will be a few swing trade opportunities today.

Developed Asia was red. Emerging Asia was mixed with China, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Sri Lanka being green. Europe is mixed withi France, Germany and Austria, The PIGS, and the nethrlands in red. Italy is green oddly enough. However, the breadth is tepid and countries keep flipping back and forth. Short term scalping seems to be the order of the day.

The DAX fell at the open. The gap from Feb 17th has been closed. The close from the 16th ( around 5590) appears to be the interim support level and we have a mild bounce. Sector performance is split, with Utilities, Consumer staples, Consumer Discretionary, and Materials all in the red. The green sectors have good breadth with most stocks in the green. The index is essentially flat.

ES moved up after the bell yesterday and held that level all night until Europe opened. It got a bid at the support line at 1094ish at 5AM and moved up off of that. It appears that traders were motivated in their actions by the stronger-than-expected Euro Industrial orders data. (does this count as news?).

* R2: 1122.50 = Not today.
* R1: 1110 = Level of the start of the waterfall yeseterday. This market looks too tired to re-test that level
* Neutral: 1100 = Looks like the roof for today, IMO
* S1: 1087.50 = In low volume, its possible that nervous sellers could push ES down to here. I would expect a bounce, though. My opinion is that there is enough technical support above this pivot to slow the fal.
* S2: 1077.75 = Not today, IMO. But this will need to be breached over the next week IF the Gartley pattern continues to be valid.

FX

Eurozone industrial orders were better than expected and this put a bid under the EUR. The data was released at 5AM EST. Forexlive.com thinks that there are Asian CBs that put a bid in around 1.3540 /50 overnight. This still seems to be a support level.

EUR is still running in a broad downward channel that began Feb 9th. There have been big pops out of it - but overall the slope remains constant and down. The action overnight was in a tight range until the Euo-news at 5AM. This gave a pop to the HOD. Support, as mentioned, seems to continue at 1.3540 /50. The trend is up since yesterday - but zooming in makes EUR look like it is in a sloppy bear flag. I don’t like sloppy - too much room for interpretation and wishful thinking. The EUR will NOT do what I want it to based on TA. Remember that.

[ukarlewitz]

Morning all.

Carl - 1092-1105. Now at 1097, so looking for more upside.

Oscar - Oh no, Oscar a bear again. Shorting low 1100's for target in 1080's.

Cobra - maybe green today but more downside ahead. Last 3 trading days each month have been net negative the past 6 months; plus, we had no -1000 ticks yesterday, usually a precursor to more red ahead.

IT - flat to positive today. 'WV' pattern on Spy that needs a final downstroke to complete. Note, in particular, GLD; we have gap fill here in the pre-market. Swing it.

[kingdisco]

Feb 24, 2010 8:54:38 GMT -5 ukarlewitz said:

Morning all.

Carl - 1092-1105. Now at 1097, so looking for more upside.

Oscar - Oh no, Oscar a bear again. Shorting low 1100's for target in 1080's.

Cobra - maybe green today but more downside ahead. Last 3 trading days each month have been net negative the past 6 months; plus, we had no -1000 ticks yesterday, usually a precursor to more red ahead.

IT - flat to positive today. 'WV' pattern on Spy that needs a final downstroke to complete. Note, in particular, GLD; we have gap fill here in the pre-market. Swing it.

damn it ukarl... lol your messing me up. oscar is short? i was getting ready to short rofl i'm going to have to re-evaluate everything now....

[ukarlewitz]

Feb 24, 2010 8:58:13 GMT -5 kingdisco said:

Feb 24, 2010 8:54:38 GMT -5 ukarlewitz said:

Morning all.

Carl - 1092-1105. Now at 1097, so looking for more upside.

Oscar - Oh no, Oscar a bear again. Shorting low 1100's for target in 1080's.

Cobra - maybe green today but more downside ahead. Last 3 trading days each month have been net negative the past 6 months; plus, we had no -1000 ticks yesterday, usually a precursor to more red ahead.

IT - flat to positive today. 'WV' pattern on Spy that needs a final downstroke to complete. Note, in particular, GLD; we have gap fill here in the pre-market. Swing it.

damn it ukarl... lol your messing me up. oscar is short? i was getting ready to short rofl i'm going to have to re-evaluate everything now....

Yup, had to warn you. Oscar put the stink eye on shorting. To make matters worse, Murphy is bearish too.

[kryptos2009]

Salutations my fellow FAStopians,

Feb 24, 2010 8:41:11 GMT -5 Mikey said:

"You've got...exaltation" - not really the same ring as AOL's tagline

"You've been Exalted" - Seems to have more of a ring to it

[doglover]

Good morning all. Thanks for all the info.

[Mikey]

Alright, one thread today, woo hoo!!

Sounds like concensus might be a morning gap then crap

I'll join the short parade at 1,105 (that's about 1,100 on the e-mini)

Also watching the following for potential dip buys:
APWR
MVIS
STEC
UNG

Pre-market movers on my watchlist:
ACAS $3.75 -2.6%
TZA $9.25 -1.5% (exited in my IRA at yesterday's close)
ERY $11.62 -1.4% (exited in my IRA at yesterday's close)
PAAS $20.60 -1.0% (lowest close in past 6 months = $20.47 on 11/28 - I like this one)
FAZ $18.45 -1.0%

TOL $19.4 +2.65% (LOVE shorting this one)
YGE $11.55 +2.3% (watching this and APWR closely for longs)
JASO $4.86 +2.1% (solar worth watching today it's been killed lately)
SOLF $6.7 +1.8% (another solar, like CSIQ, FSLR, ENER, SPWRA too)
HOV $3.98 +1.8% (love shorting this POS too)
PCX $15.76 +1.5% (bounce from yesterday)

Interesting that both Ford and Toyota are BOTH up 1% also

[ukarlewitz]

What, no DDSS on your shopping list? It was down yesterday too.

IT - 110.5 to 111.0-.15 (gap fill) are short entries. SRS target around 8.0.

[Mikey]

Looking at PAAS again the $20.47 closing low was 10/28 (not 11/28)

It hit an intraday low of $20.25 on 2/5 (closed at $21.98, remember it well...)

Check out Ask2Lern's gold thread, I posted some long-term dollar index charts and REALLY like an entry on PAAS in the low-20's if you assume that $80.95 will hold as resistance on the dollar index. If the dollar breaks out today though on Bernanke news, there could be more downside ahead for gold/silver. In July, PAAS dipped below $17 and on the bearish side of things, it is below all its major daily moving averages - so it's a risky play - I'd only take it on confirmed dollar weakness.

[Mikey]

UK great point on the DDSS - just missed it because it hasn't really moved in premarket. Will keep an eye on it today, thanks!!

[lookingherethere]

Good Morning!!! Thanks for the PP's

[abdogman]

Good Morning Gang...Kryptos thx for nmbrs and GLTA

[merrillstanley]

Good Morning,
Here is your Merrill Morning Minute:
FAZ bias this morning, keeping my eye out for switch opportunities
Hold on one minute, I’m done beating this dead horse yet….at least for today…There was Volume, but ti was tute selling, which is not a good omen when the markets are attempting to rally.
Indexes back under 50 day lines
Probably tight to down trade today, prior to Big Ben comments
Seeing profit taking even slightly above 5% on recent runs
Remember we’re still in a correction. Stop your losses at 7%; take gains earlier than you normally would. Bottoms may not have been made.
CAGC, CAAS, as you know I love ADRs…
GLTA

[cashfilly]

Thanks for all the info!

Morning all...not a lot to add except....out of that MSFT Steel....day traded that one only.....sorry didn't see the post in time.

Also....auctions on smaller term notes to re-liquidate (my made up word for the day) the Fed. I know no more than that on that one....a CNBC Rick Santelli observation that is not in the Bloomberg calander....thinking at 11:30 and need to find that out....I don't like holding a daytrade/scalp during data releases.....

MBA apps down again....UNG may have hit it's low....DRN was good for an overnighter but not revisiting that one on the dip today...not at least for anything more than a trade today....

GL all!

[ukarlewitz]

MCZ - 'gem' from IT at the low end of their buy zone (0.45). Careful, as its already been to 0.42 today.

[ukarlewitz]

AKS at gap fill.

[ukarlewitz]

Which is also the 20dma.

[merrillstanley]

consolid for morning move

[cashfilly]

JPM might still be strong...no quick dumps here
MS nice bottom tails
GS could do about anything here...

[ukarlewitz]

RIG - first pierce of 200dma since July.

[steel]

ukarlewitz, like your picture. That was my favorite cartoon as a kid. One point for that.

[cashfilly]

GS looking to join...building momo...14.49 was a key number in xlf yesterday

[jack]

Abdogman & DL's:

www.grimmy.com/comics.php

[abdogman]

Feb 24, 2010 9:50:57 GMT -5 jack said:

Abdogman & DL's:

www.grimmy.com/comics.php

Jack looks just like me with BOBO THX

[ukarlewitz]

Nice fall in Vix today. Watch VXX for reentry.

[cashfilly]

JPM double top.....working that 14.49

Or per itms stalling at the 200 day ema...spy 106.60
uup tagging the 200 also

[merrillstanley]

new homes sales and Big Ben at the top of the hour, be ready

[ask2lern]

This is what Dual posted on the Bull/bear thread..........

"21.08 on the VIX is our Checkpoint Charlie tomorrow. If VIX drifts below it, capitalism flourishes another day.-)"


Nice call Dual.....................GLTA

[cashfilly]

Got to love this....