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Post by cosmic on Aug 30, 2010 15:04:01 GMT -5
I fear the monthly candle is going to be ugly. It will not confirm we are still bullish.  Almost the entire run from Friday was reversed, except for 23 Dow points. The message the market whispered to me today is... no one is buying until the Fed buys. Until then, I don't know.  Which leads to today: No Trades.  Hope everyone made some money today and will do so tomorrow. Members, please post your results along with your RDA of smileys!  |
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Post by demanuel2001 on Aug 30, 2010 15:07:38 GMT -5
I've had better days - looks to be down $30k (but looks to be reduced somewhat on gains in Japanese mutual fund). Got a bit longer LVS after the open (doh!) - wrote some more LVS puts later in the day.
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Post by brosin on Aug 30, 2010 15:08:31 GMT -5
Until the Fed buys what?
They are buying the crap out of Treasuries, and are flooding money into the system daily. The banks are just choosing not to use it yet.
Are you saying they should come right out and say they are buying stocks?
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Post by Rothschild on Aug 30, 2010 15:09:36 GMT -5
Stopped out of fas TWICE for a loss of 2% today; I am real disappointed that we didnt see any follow thru from friday. I got a headache now so it is time to lick my wounds. |
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Post by cosmic on Aug 30, 2010 15:09:39 GMT -5
That's what Ben said... something to the effect of 'support the equity market'
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Post by cosmic on Aug 30, 2010 15:10:47 GMT -5
Stopped out of fas TWICE for a loss of 2% today; I am real disappointed that we didnt see any follow thru from friday. I got a headache now so it is time to lick my wounds. I agree, in the Bull/Bear last night I thought today would be a show of strength. Very wimpy indeed. I am starting to believe, regardless of whether I want to or not, that this market is cooked for a while. Thus leaving any equity position in it is dangerous. |
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jn1520
Broker/Dealer
Posts: 719
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Post by jn1520 on Aug 30, 2010 15:11:09 GMT -5
Held my FAS position. Should have sold first thing in the morning, but hindsight is 20/20. Right around break-even point for me today. No trades because nothing felt quite right.
Tomorrow's another day!
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Post by ukarlewitz on Aug 30, 2010 15:13:10 GMT -5
Which leads to today: No Trades. Term of the day from Jack: LFT (low frequency trader). I think you have a lot of company. |
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Post by cosmic on Aug 30, 2010 15:14:45 GMT -5
Which leads to today: No Trades. Term of the day from Jack: LFT (low frequency trader). I think you have a lot of company. hehe I like that. Have we added it to the PPDT glossary? ;D |
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Post by brosin on Aug 30, 2010 15:15:28 GMT -5
That's what Ben said... something to the effect of 'support the equity market' The Fed doesn't have a mandate to buy equities. The Treasury can if they want, but not the Fed; it is a semantical argument perhaps, but that's the situation. The Fed will "support the equity market" through its standard tools, but at the end of the day, it is the banks deciding not to lend the money they are being given every day. If you ask me, all the Fed needs to do is come out and abolish interest rates on Excess Reserves - they wanted banks to have cash in the event of continued deterioration (the reason for the new policy as of 2008 to pay interest on those), but as usual, there are unintended consequences. Now the banks have no reason to lend that money out since they are making money off just letting it sit there! |
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Post by sloop on Aug 30, 2010 15:16:56 GMT -5
bought FAS and BAC pre market...still in and getting burned.
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Post by cosmic on Aug 30, 2010 15:17:26 GMT -5
Just like me lol. I make more money (by not losing money) just letting my cash sit there.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Aug 30, 2010 15:17:33 GMT -5
Here some good news: I'm going to Tahoe this weekend. The last two times I went to Tahoe were March 3-6 2009 and for the fourth of July this year, both bottoms before strong rallies. Next week should be banner.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Aug 30, 2010 15:18:34 GMT -5
Term of the day from Jack: LFT (low frequency trader). I think you have a lot of company. hehe I like that. Have we added it to the PPDT glossary? ;D oh yes, as soon as I read it I added it. It's a keeper. |
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Post by tajmahal9898 on Aug 30, 2010 15:18:35 GMT -5
luckily CENX was not impacted by sell off -- actually it closed green..
No major movement on AETC either..
No change in portfolio...
thought about starting bullish MU options, but I don't have the guts to pull the trigger.. already have long CENX and AETC positions.. I will sell CENX before taking a new position..
For now, let's call it a paper trade MU 100 long 6 calls and 100 short 7 puts for net 6 cents debit.
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Post by natsalilfly on Aug 30, 2010 15:18:53 GMT -5
Held my FAS position. Should have sold first thing in the morning, but hindsight is 20/20. Right around break-even point for me today. No trades because nothing felt quite right. Tomorrow's another day! exactly same with me but in TNA - I was also hearing Scarlett O'Hara's voice as well..."I'll get him back...after all, tomorrow is another day!" |
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Post by cosmic on Aug 30, 2010 15:19:23 GMT -5
Well have fun Uk. Never been to Tahoe.
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Post by tajmahal9898 on Aug 30, 2010 15:20:23 GMT -5
Here some good news: I'm going to Tahoe this weekend. The last two times I went to Tahoe were March 3-6 2009 and for the fourth of July this year, both bottoms before strong rallies. Next week should be banner. I will be there too.. Actually Reno..Have fun.. |
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Post by benvestor on Aug 30, 2010 15:21:23 GMT -5
Holding LVS calls.. really not happy about it.. Hoping this is not a H/s playing out on the chart.. glad it held the LOD but then closed right near it.. All in all i wish i had never bought these calls, again. But i am not selling for a loss after one day. This stock likes to zig zag from day to day and I'm not going out without a fight will i never learn to just stop out.. dag nabbit I thought today would be a greeny tho Well GL everyone.. |
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Post by brosin on Aug 30, 2010 15:21:56 GMT -5
Just like me lol. I make more money (by not losing money) just letting my cash sit there. Well right, but for banks there is a big opportunity cost in doing that and its all about their fear. You can see they don't want to get burned again, so the Fed needs to push them back towards rationality. If you are being given money at .25%, why would you sit on it and get another .25% interest on it rather than lend it out at 10%, 20%, 25% in some cases in loans, credit cards, etc? Is it a matter of not wanting to take on fixed rate home loans at 4% for 30 years? Maybe. I'm not sure. But either way, that money is not doing any good sitting as *EXCESS* reserves. Usually, in normal times, ERs are at $0. It is currently at $1.2 Trillion. That's a little bit of money.  |
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Post by jack on Aug 30, 2010 15:22:16 GMT -5
Well have fun Uk. Never been to Tahoe. Isn't that where Fredo (Michael Corleone's brother) is residing "with the fishs"? |
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Post by demanuel2001 on Aug 30, 2010 15:25:03 GMT -5
Here some good news: I'm going to Tahoe this weekend. The last two times I went to Tahoe were March 3-6 2009 and for the fourth of July this year, both bottoms before strong rallies. Next week should be banner. I will be there too.. Actually Reno..Have fun.. I'll be in Vegas - So between us we have all the bases covered except for Laughlin |
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Post by ask2lern on Aug 30, 2010 15:25:35 GMT -5
Well it was ugly and there was far more vol then I expected on SPY.............anyway I did one SPY PUT Scalp 200 contracts +10% early ..................... on the sidelines for the rest of the day...............now if I would have held the position and sold at the close it would have been a 49% gain  ..................BUT GREED KILLS.............so I am happy about my gain................still holding a bloody red AIB and INTC and good old fashion cash in trading account...........I really think that it is a weekly opex fest...................one day get everyone on the call train.................next day kill the calls and get them all on the put train....then kill the puts and get them back on the call train........rinse wash repeat every flippen day...............geeezzzzzzzzzz................when will the madness end ........................Exalt for Cos......................live to trade another day.......................GLTA  BTW Nice call on the IWM close Purr..............  |
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Post by Rich on Aug 30, 2010 15:25:59 GMT -5
SSSSSsssssstinko!!!!!! That's all I got. |
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Post by trading4dough on Aug 30, 2010 15:29:29 GMT -5
I was very bearish .................... so I decided why not go long and buy the dip
So now Im sitting with a boatload of TNA @ 34.31 average after I added some at the close
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Post by cosmic on Aug 30, 2010 15:29:50 GMT -5
A number of things I'm looking at: VIX is high - it could go higher - if that's the case you want to be in long puts, long calls (under certain conditions), and long straddles if you're unsure.
If the VIX starts going lower from these altitudes, it's going to be difficult to make money on the long option side as a declining VIX tends to favor option writers who are shorting TP out.
The March/April peak pushed a lot of premium into stocks where we're at now and it's still there and they're still sucking it out, and that is causing depressed pricing, loss of liquidity, and a number of other factors.
I just do not understand why the entire market needs to be controlled by algos. If they set them to buy, no amount of shorting works. If they set them to sell, no amount of buying works. It is simply ridiculous. It's as if the guy running the roulette wheel looks at where all the money is, and then puts his hand on the wheel and stops the ball where the most people lose, every time.
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Post by ask2lern on Aug 30, 2010 15:34:07 GMT -5
It's as if the guy running the roulette wheel looks at where all the money is, and then puts his hand on the wheel and stops the ball where the most people lose, every time. I lived in a casino hotel for about 7 months in Vegas while on assignment for my job and befriended a few of the staff............one guy claimed that a good roulette dealer could hit whatever # they wanted about 70% of the time...............I did not believe him.....................now I wonder........... ;D |
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Post by timber on Aug 30, 2010 15:37:05 GMT -5
it usually works buying closes like this on fas and tna at least for a trade
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Post by timber on Aug 30, 2010 15:48:26 GMT -5
i made nine tna trades and just bought the close...also bought exel today...thinking of fmd right here too
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Post by timber on Aug 30, 2010 15:49:46 GMT -5
i made nine tna trades and just bought the close...also bought exel today...thinking of fmd right here too
bac sure looks tasty though
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..................BUT GREED KILLS.............so I am happy about my gain................still holding a bloody red AIB and INTC and good old fashion cash in trading account...........I really think that it is a weekly opex fest...................one day get everyone on the call train.................next day kill the calls and get them all on the put train....then kill the puts and get them back on the call train........rinse wash repeat every flippen day...............geeezzzzzzzzzz................when will the madness end 
