Post by brosin on Sept 10, 2010 13:24:43 GMT -5
hello fastopia
10-Aug-09 08:53 pm
brosin1324
or is it fastonia. i've been away for too long.
how's everybody doing? what's new around these parts?
meat popsicle might be so right on the money that it's scary!
but being the resident bull, i can't buy into it. still far too many naysayers, and that's just from reading the news. i wonder how many of them come on this board lately telling all the 'suckers' to bend over? noticed also the other day that even T4D had had enough and went into SRS in the 13s...
RE: hello fastopia
10-Aug-09 08:59 pm
Meat_Popcicle
I predicted an undershoot of 1 0 1 5, but instead so far it's been a slight overshoot of 1 0 1 5. I believe we hit 1 0 1 8. 3 points. Sheesh!
The question is, Bros, and I can't tell from your post... are you still bullish?
1 0 1 5
I am Meat_Popcicle
RE: hello fastopia
10-Aug-09 09:22 pm
brosin1324
Ya know, I am actually, but it's more of a selective bullishness. I'm not very bullish on financials in general anymore... the ever-flattening yield curve and less volatile world markets don't bode well for bank earnings and I fear that most if not all earnings growth in many names has been priced in. Especially in the 'safest' names JPM, GS... maybe still a bit of room to run in the riskier names that got beaten to oblivion like C, BAC, AIG, FRE/FNM, GE, some insurers. But I wonder for how long. Give it a couple years, and hell, you'll make a fortune. But nowadays, even investors don't have long time horizons let alone those who frequent this board. The only financial plays I really like with conviction still are the Exchanges (ICE/CME) and the Regionals (STI, HBAN, FITB, WFC etc). If too big to fail becomes too big to exist in the coming years as I expect (and if BO's administration really puts a hammer down on compensation), regionals will take tons of market share from the big boys.
I am bullish in the energy/commodity sector (especially the emerging markets) - I'd even say very bullish. Inflation is coming, there's absolutely no question about it; it was the only way to save the world from crumbling. Hard to say whether it's here or 5-10% lower for the next nice entry point (I missed my last shot over a month ago to buy the 2nd halves of positions I own in my long-term portfolio), but it all depends on time-frame.
Even if you're short biased, I can't see there being any sense in not hedging yourself with gold & oil. There's no way I'd go short at all though, these days. Uphill battle for years of trying to pick your spots perfectly it seems...
that's my rambling outlook for ya. economic indicators have all turned up rather than just slowing their declines. except unemployment, which is last to come.
10-Aug-09 08:53 pm
brosin1324
or is it fastonia. i've been away for too long.
how's everybody doing? what's new around these parts?
meat popsicle might be so right on the money that it's scary!
but being the resident bull, i can't buy into it. still far too many naysayers, and that's just from reading the news. i wonder how many of them come on this board lately telling all the 'suckers' to bend over? noticed also the other day that even T4D had had enough and went into SRS in the 13s...
RE: hello fastopia
10-Aug-09 08:59 pm
Meat_Popcicle
I predicted an undershoot of 1 0 1 5, but instead so far it's been a slight overshoot of 1 0 1 5. I believe we hit 1 0 1 8. 3 points. Sheesh!
The question is, Bros, and I can't tell from your post... are you still bullish?
1 0 1 5
I am Meat_Popcicle
RE: hello fastopia
10-Aug-09 09:22 pm
brosin1324
Ya know, I am actually, but it's more of a selective bullishness. I'm not very bullish on financials in general anymore... the ever-flattening yield curve and less volatile world markets don't bode well for bank earnings and I fear that most if not all earnings growth in many names has been priced in. Especially in the 'safest' names JPM, GS... maybe still a bit of room to run in the riskier names that got beaten to oblivion like C, BAC, AIG, FRE/FNM, GE, some insurers. But I wonder for how long. Give it a couple years, and hell, you'll make a fortune. But nowadays, even investors don't have long time horizons let alone those who frequent this board. The only financial plays I really like with conviction still are the Exchanges (ICE/CME) and the Regionals (STI, HBAN, FITB, WFC etc). If too big to fail becomes too big to exist in the coming years as I expect (and if BO's administration really puts a hammer down on compensation), regionals will take tons of market share from the big boys.
I am bullish in the energy/commodity sector (especially the emerging markets) - I'd even say very bullish. Inflation is coming, there's absolutely no question about it; it was the only way to save the world from crumbling. Hard to say whether it's here or 5-10% lower for the next nice entry point (I missed my last shot over a month ago to buy the 2nd halves of positions I own in my long-term portfolio), but it all depends on time-frame.
Even if you're short biased, I can't see there being any sense in not hedging yourself with gold & oil. There's no way I'd go short at all though, these days. Uphill battle for years of trying to pick your spots perfectly it seems...
that's my rambling outlook for ya. economic indicators have all turned up rather than just slowing their declines. except unemployment, which is last to come.