Post by brosin on Sept 8, 2010 22:48:01 GMT -5
messages.finance.yahoo.com/Business_%26_Finance/Investments/Stocks_(A_to_Z)/Stocks_D/threadview?bn=87811&tid=425113&mid=425241
26-Oct-09 10:17 pm
brosin1324
Ok, lets dance.
You have been thinking the market is about to tank for quite some time. Every bearish person I know has been shorting the whole way up and doubting every minute of the rally giving a variety of reasons. At some point even they will capitulate. After that, we might reverse. If you ask me, itll be a couple years until that happens. The Fed has created an unprecedented level of liquidity in order to cause what will inevitably be the biggest asset bubble ever created. You are essentially fighting the Fed while those with a bullish bias are not. The Fed can change the rules and they can print monopoly money. Just not what I would do. Youre trying to time it perfectly to get your 5-10% mkt move (3x the risk in DRV) whereas even lazy people have made 40-50+% easy.
My measly $7K long only account that I opened in February is up 49% - just checked and I rarely do just out of principal since I could lose it all and not care. And you got me pegged wrong if you think Im an old school anything let alone buy and holder. Im pretty young and have no particular style - Im an economics guy who is as bearish as anyone when it comes to the long term. While I was bearish on the stock market during the decline, I knew deep down that the size of it was not rational. Prematurely trying to fight the Fed doesnt seem rational either... In every bull market, the shorts are way too early. Why is this different?
26-Oct-09 10:17 pm
brosin1324
Ok, lets dance.
You have been thinking the market is about to tank for quite some time. Every bearish person I know has been shorting the whole way up and doubting every minute of the rally giving a variety of reasons. At some point even they will capitulate. After that, we might reverse. If you ask me, itll be a couple years until that happens. The Fed has created an unprecedented level of liquidity in order to cause what will inevitably be the biggest asset bubble ever created. You are essentially fighting the Fed while those with a bullish bias are not. The Fed can change the rules and they can print monopoly money. Just not what I would do. Youre trying to time it perfectly to get your 5-10% mkt move (3x the risk in DRV) whereas even lazy people have made 40-50+% easy.
My measly $7K long only account that I opened in February is up 49% - just checked and I rarely do just out of principal since I could lose it all and not care. And you got me pegged wrong if you think Im an old school anything let alone buy and holder. Im pretty young and have no particular style - Im an economics guy who is as bearish as anyone when it comes to the long term. While I was bearish on the stock market during the decline, I knew deep down that the size of it was not rational. Prematurely trying to fight the Fed doesnt seem rational either... In every bull market, the shorts are way too early. Why is this different?