Post by brosin on Aug 18, 2010 0:07:00 GMT -5
messages.finance.yahoo.com/Business_%26_Finance/Investments/Stocks_(A_to_Z)/Stocks_D/threadview?bn=87811&tid=506645&mid=506645
*Onto the soapbox*
I don't get it guys. I suppose a short term mindset does reign supreme on a triple leverage ETF, but yet I'm still very surprised.
I feel like we are watching the same movie every couple weeks without anyone realizing we've already seen it.
We go from the bulls being uber loud to the bears being uber loud like clockwork, with both expecting their side to win in a straight line fashion (usually with most people switching sides just before the reversal, I should mention).
People are saying this is feels new, feels different. Of course it does - so did the time before this, the time before that, and the time before that. How could a correction work if it weren't believable?
Looking at the S&P chart, there have been 7 noticeable pullbacks. All of them had to do with short term noise that is always easily forgotten. We might see a false break like we did in the late June/early July correction, or we might even move (gasp!) sideways for awhile (as I'd argue the financials have done over the past many months).
Bears are foaming at the mouth yet again - definitely not the first time, and definitely not the last time. I've sounded like a mid-range broken record over the past year, no doubt - but the basics have not changed; we're a year into an economic recovery which will eventually culminate after we've had the boom that follows the bust. Rates remain at historical lows which means any economic fall-back will be met by further government/central bank intervention. The end game (which we see talk of each time we run to the upper channel of the uptrend) is inflation, which means you want to own assets, not cash. Last of all, Obama may talk a big game with regard to the banks, but it seems like 90% rhetoric, 10% substance. You can bet he knows damn well that crushing the banks means crushing the economy and crushing his re-election. He's on their side by default, and don't think he doesn't know it.
That's enough from me, but my final point is this. Context: why would the big boys have let the market fall so fast without buying those little intraday dips as they have for the past year (an important question because you know that's all the drop was, a lack of big vol dip buyers). **Ding Ding Ding** - 2010 FOMC Meetings January 26-27.
www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypo...
Can you say, enticing Treasury buyers to keep rates low into the meeting?
I know I've seen this movie before. The ending is just so much more fun. We'll be at SPX 1200 before the continuation of the movie ("Bears IIX: Stuck in the "Realities" of '08") starts up again. I personally liked Bears VII better myself.
*Onto the soapbox*
I don't get it guys. I suppose a short term mindset does reign supreme on a triple leverage ETF, but yet I'm still very surprised.
I feel like we are watching the same movie every couple weeks without anyone realizing we've already seen it.
We go from the bulls being uber loud to the bears being uber loud like clockwork, with both expecting their side to win in a straight line fashion (usually with most people switching sides just before the reversal, I should mention).
People are saying this is feels new, feels different. Of course it does - so did the time before this, the time before that, and the time before that. How could a correction work if it weren't believable?
Looking at the S&P chart, there have been 7 noticeable pullbacks. All of them had to do with short term noise that is always easily forgotten. We might see a false break like we did in the late June/early July correction, or we might even move (gasp!) sideways for awhile (as I'd argue the financials have done over the past many months).
Bears are foaming at the mouth yet again - definitely not the first time, and definitely not the last time. I've sounded like a mid-range broken record over the past year, no doubt - but the basics have not changed; we're a year into an economic recovery which will eventually culminate after we've had the boom that follows the bust. Rates remain at historical lows which means any economic fall-back will be met by further government/central bank intervention. The end game (which we see talk of each time we run to the upper channel of the uptrend) is inflation, which means you want to own assets, not cash. Last of all, Obama may talk a big game with regard to the banks, but it seems like 90% rhetoric, 10% substance. You can bet he knows damn well that crushing the banks means crushing the economy and crushing his re-election. He's on their side by default, and don't think he doesn't know it.
That's enough from me, but my final point is this. Context: why would the big boys have let the market fall so fast without buying those little intraday dips as they have for the past year (an important question because you know that's all the drop was, a lack of big vol dip buyers). **Ding Ding Ding** - 2010 FOMC Meetings January 26-27.
www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypo...
Can you say, enticing Treasury buyers to keep rates low into the meeting?
I know I've seen this movie before. The ending is just so much more fun. We'll be at SPX 1200 before the continuation of the movie ("Bears IIX: Stuck in the "Realities" of '08") starts up again. I personally liked Bears VII better myself.