|
|
Post by brosin on Mar 17, 2010 9:00:56 GMT -5
Has it begun?
I think so.
8/28/10 UPDATE: A little early = thumbs down!
|
|
|
|
Post by cosmic on Mar 17, 2010 9:13:57 GMT -5
So the theory is we went down 10% so we could go up 14%?
|
|
|
|
Post by maxi on Mar 17, 2010 9:20:28 GMT -5
dunno wth is happening. only that the TRIN has come up a bit. I truly believe this will continue to inch up until either an event or perhaps end of quarter rebalancing. When would u say window dressing would occur? The ONLY finite reason for the 10% drop was the PIGS scare. Now it would have to be a China rate change scare or another event. The market would never have backed of if it were not for the Greece thing. Where is our BUY emotie?
|
|
|
|
Post by brosin on Mar 17, 2010 9:23:21 GMT -5
So the theory is we went down 10% so we could go up 14%? For that particular correction and retrace, yes... We only get a 8-10% correction every 3 months. Rest are all 3-5%. |
|
|
|
Post by snapplemoney on Mar 17, 2010 9:24:56 GMT -5
im not thinking this is the top but i think we close out at 1160 however i think riffin looks a bit ttoppy at current level. looking for atleast a 92 close. could be wrong but lets see.
|
|
|
|
Post by brosin on Mar 17, 2010 11:31:07 GMT -5
Final push to 1170/1175?
Bull flag on the indexes - if it plays out, we could get our top. Bears hang onto your hats, it might get a little bumpy before we turn this car around.
|
|
|
|
Post by torrentio1 on Mar 17, 2010 12:10:00 GMT -5
My thoughts thus far have been premised in keeping it simple. We simply see a post July redux -this time with more investors and less speculators. The markets are moving to new levels... The rally matures...
|
|
|
|
Post by commodityypro on Mar 17, 2010 12:12:32 GMT -5
dunno wth is happening. only that the TRIN has come up a bit. I truly believe this will continue to inch up until either an event or perhaps end of quarter rebalancing. When would u say window dressing would occur? The ONLY finite reason for the 10% drop was the PIGS scare. Now it would have to be a China rate change scare or another event. The market would never have backed of if it were not for the Greece thing. Where is our BUY emotie? Agree Maxine. Inch by inch higher and higher here till 1200 S&P. Nothing to take this down other than a technical selloff. |
|
|
|
Post by brosin on Mar 17, 2010 12:37:31 GMT -5
This is the blowoff bear capitulation top I think. Or the beginning of it. We are seeing volume now, which means they are panicking.
Watching to see if FAS starts to test towards $99/100 before it tips, but I've got a FAZ order primed and ready! Bear funds, it's been awhile (December)!
|
|
|
|
Post by brosin on Mar 17, 2010 12:44:07 GMT -5
Not enough names I'm watching are running on any sort of volume yet. I don't think 1170 is it. Maybe closer to 1175.
|
|
|
|
Post by hammondkeys on Mar 17, 2010 12:51:30 GMT -5
You guys are playing with fire here. The S&P just broke the bear long term trend channel resistance last week and you are looking for a good spot to short?
You will get a pullback to probably 1125-1130 eventually, but this thing is destined for the 1300's and possibly, hold the phone, new all time highs.
|
|
|
|
Post by cosmic on Mar 17, 2010 12:54:16 GMT -5
Not gonna disagree with Hamm on the longer term.
In the shorter term, you want to see 841-842 on RIFIN hold.
|
|
|
|
Post by timber on Mar 17, 2010 12:59:38 GMT -5
im with hambone here....very bullish breakout....sell in may go away
|
|
|
|
Post by commodityypro on Mar 17, 2010 13:04:14 GMT -5
You guys are playing with fire here. The S&P just broke the bear long term trend channel resistance last week and you are looking for a good spot to short? You will get a pullback to probably 1125-1130 eventually, but this thing is destined for the 1300's and possibly, hold the phone, new all time highs. I can't believe it and I am biting my tongue saying it but, Hammond, I'm with you this time! lol |
|
|
|
Post by brosin on Mar 17, 2010 13:06:30 GMT -5
You guys are playing with fire here. The S&P just broke the bear long term trend channel resistance last week and you are looking for a good spot to short? You will get a pullback to probably 1125-1130 eventually, but this thing is destined for the 1300's and possibly, hold the phone, new all time highs. Playing with fire? With all due respect Hamm (as I know you haven't been around to pay attention to some calls/predictions/biases), I called for a new SPX high prior to FOMC meeting as far back as 1/25/10 even when it looked bleak in early Feb. I got it and the market has moved up 12% in one swoop. To be throwing out 1300 and new all time highs at this stage is premature at best, and destructive advice at worst when you know as well as anyone we're not going to get there in a straight line. Market needs to breathe, and I've been as bullish as anyone (except Torr! lol) throughout the entirety of this move. |
|
|
|
Post by hammondkeys on Mar 17, 2010 13:10:05 GMT -5
You guys are playing with fire here. The S&P just broke the bear long term trend channel resistance last week and you are looking for a good spot to short? You will get a pullback to probably 1125-1130 eventually, but this thing is destined for the 1300's and possibly, hold the phone, new all time highs. I can't believe it and I am biting my tongue saying it but, Hammond, I'm with you this time! lol Uh..oh... let me take another look now... ; ) Not to toot the old horn too much here... but this was what I was talking about last April/May. The setup is there. Now the question is, will this bull run for the average 45 months from the end of the bear market to the start of a new one? The average duration of bear markets is 18.5 months. We put in 18 on this one. As I see it, we are one year into the bull if you start counting at the bottom. Does that mean we have another 2.5+ years to run? Nobody is expecting it - making all the more likely. |
|
|
|
Post by brosin on Mar 17, 2010 13:10:29 GMT -5
Bull flag on indexes yet again - 1175 might be on the way. FAZ at $1.30 looks good still  |
|
|
|
Post by ukarlewitz on Mar 17, 2010 13:11:06 GMT -5
This is the blowoff bear capitulation top I think. Or the beginning of it. We are seeing volume now, which means they are panicking. Watching to see if FAS starts to test towards $99/100 before it tips, but I've got a FAZ order primed and ready! Bear funds, it's been awhile (December)! Commoditty bull. Cosmic bull. If we can get Ken in here too then we can say the top is in for the next 2 months. |
|
|
|
Post by brosin on Mar 17, 2010 13:12:03 GMT -5
I can't believe it and I am biting my tongue saying it but, Hammond, I'm with you this time! lol Uh..oh... let me take another look now... ; ) Not to toot the old horn too much here... but this was what I was talking about last April/May. The setup is there. Now the question is, will this bull run for the average 45 months from the end of the bear market to the start of a new one? The average duration of bear markets is 18.5 months. We put in 18 on this one. As I see it, we are one year into the bull if you start counting at the bottom. Does that mean we have another 2.5+ years to run? Nobody is expecting it - making all the more likely. Ok, I can't believe you are talking about how this is a bull market and how far we will ultimately get *now.* Easy to do that after a ridiculous up move... We have been in a bull market for at least 8-10 months now imo, it's all semantics anyways. The boom/bust cycle is not new. |
|
|
|
Post by brosin on Mar 17, 2010 13:13:16 GMT -5
This is the blowoff bear capitulation top I think. Or the beginning of it. We are seeing volume now, which means they are panicking. Watching to see if FAS starts to test towards $99/100 before it tips, but I've got a FAZ order primed and ready! Bear funds, it's been awhile (December)! Commoditty bull. Cosmic bull. If we can get Ken in here too then we can say the top is in for the next 2 months. Cosmic bull? From my frequent interactions with him, he hasn't sounded bullish for many months now although luckily he has remained bullish biased in his accounts. |
|
|
|
Post by timber on Mar 17, 2010 13:17:34 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by hammondkeys on Mar 17, 2010 13:25:31 GMT -5
Uh..oh... let me take another look now... ; ) Not to toot the old horn too much here... but this was what I was talking about last April/May. The setup is there. Now the question is, will this bull run for the average 45 months from the end of the bear market to the start of a new one? The average duration of bear markets is 18.5 months. We put in 18 on this one. As I see it, we are one year into the bull if you start counting at the bottom. Does that mean we have another 2.5+ years to run? Nobody is expecting it - making all the more likely. Ok, I can't believe you are talking about how this is a bull market and how far we will ultimately get *now.* Easy to do that after a ridiculous up move... We have been in a bull market for at least 8-10 months now imo, it's all semantics anyways. The boom/bust cycle is not new. Read my posts from *not now* but ten months ago. I was talking about this kind of market in a year. At the time the S&P was in the mid 900's and I had targets of about 1150 and then 1300's. I stated it in clear terms. I still have the old charts here. I am just reminding people of it now. Not predicting it. |
|
|
|
Post by commodityypro on Mar 17, 2010 13:29:16 GMT -5
You guys are playing with fire here. The S&P just broke the bear long term trend channel resistance last week and you are looking for a good spot to short? You will get a pullback to probably 1125-1130 eventually, but this thing is destined for the 1300's and possibly, hold the phone, new all time highs. Playing with fire? With all due respect Hamm (as I know you haven't been around to pay attention to some calls/predictions/biases), I called for a new SPX high prior to FOMC meeting as far back as 1/25/10 even when it looked bleak in early Feb. I got it and the market has moved up 12% in one swoop. To be throwing out 1300 and new all time highs at this stage is premature at best, and destructive advice at worst when you know as well as anyone we're not going to get there in a straight line. Market needs to breathe, and I've been as bullish as anyone (except Torr! lol) throughout the entirety of this move. LMAO..Sorry Bros but this is just weird feeling. You have now taken my place in arguing against Hammond and labeling his calls as "premature". Too funny! Oh how the tables turn.. |
|
|
|
Post by brosin on Mar 17, 2010 13:36:10 GMT -5
Playing with fire? With all due respect Hamm (as I know you haven't been around to pay attention to some calls/predictions/biases), I called for a new SPX high prior to FOMC meeting as far back as 1/25/10 even when it looked bleak in early Feb. I got it and the market has moved up 12% in one swoop. To be throwing out 1300 and new all time highs at this stage is premature at best, and destructive advice at worst when you know as well as anyone we're not going to get there in a straight line. Market needs to breathe, and I've been as bullish as anyone (except Torr! lol) throughout the entirety of this move. LMAO..Sorry Bros but this is just weird feeling. You have now taken my place in arguing against Hammond and labeling his calls as "premature". Too funny! Oh how the tables turn.. I just didn't like how Hammond came in here to say 'you guys are playing with fire' when I know my success ratio. I was wholeheartedly advising people about the bull market / buying opportunity / economic fundamentals at work near the bottom of this move and on any / all dips since March. I have a personal issue with someone coming on to insist about all these things near the top of a move, not to mention saying that I'm/we're playing with fire trying to advise where we see the top coming in at... where was he last month? All that being said, I have been one of hammond's biggest supporters since Jan/Feb '09 and will continue to be one - his TA is great and I have learned alot and of course noticed his record of success on the longer term. He obviously hasn't noticed the same about me. |
|
|
|
Post by commodityypro on Mar 17, 2010 13:46:32 GMT -5
Exalt for you Bros. I hear you. I said the same thing about Hammond most of last yr. Especially during last summer.. He does have a knack for coming in to warn at the wrong times.
|
|
|
|
Post by hammondkeys on Mar 17, 2010 13:47:28 GMT -5
Brosin,
The difference between us is that I speak in forthright terms that hide nothing. You speak in terms that say more than I think you realize.
You just said that I was being irresponsible for speaking my mind today calling for 1300's. That is 140 points away. I was speaking about 250 points of irresponsibility in the Spring of 2009. I was just saying it in discreet terms that left nothing up to interpretation. I can understand how that might offend someone with a contrary view. However, the goal is to ellicit their rationale.
The people here have plenty of salt to add to my comments, as they should.
My original 'playing with fire' post was playing off the fact, not opinion, that the S&P took out the resistance line that had held it in check for almost 30 months.
That should be seen as a strong warning sign that this is now, with little doubt, a bull market.
|
|
|
|
Post by drtracyb on Mar 17, 2010 13:50:14 GMT -5
I just didn't like how Hammond came in here to say 'you guys are playing with fire' when I know my success ratio. I was wholeheartedly advising people about the bull market / buying opportunity / economic fundamentals at work near the bottom of this move and on any / all dips since March. I have a personal issue with someone coming on to insist about all these things near the top of a move, not to mention saying that I'm/we're playing with fire trying to advise where we see the top coming in at... where was he last month? All that being said, I have been one of hammond's biggest supporters since Jan/Feb '09 and will continue to be one - his TA is great and I have learned alot and of course noticed his record of success on the longer term. He obviously hasn't noticed the same about me. I appreciate that people come in here with strong opinions, even if different people have differing opinions. When someone is insistent with their opinion, it is because they believe they are protecting others from making a huge mistake - altruistic. I think it would be a shame if infighting started among the "experts" of Fastopia. Then we might as well go back to YMB. I think everyone should be allowed to state an opinion as strongly as they wish. And everyone else should be allowed to state as strongly that they disagree. IMHO. |
|
|
|
Post by brosin on Mar 17, 2010 13:51:32 GMT -5
Brosin, The difference between us is that I speak in forthright terms that hide nothing. You speak in terms that say more than I think you realize. You just said that I was being irresponsible for speaking my mind today calling for 1300's. That is 140 points away. I was speaking about 250 points of irresponsibility in the Spring of 2009. I was just saying it in discreet terms that left nothing up to interpretation. I can understand how that might offend someone with a contrary view. However, the goal is to ellicit their rationale. The people here have plenty of salt to add to my comments, as they should. My original 'playing with fire' post was playing off the fact, not opinion, that the S&P took out the resistance line that had held it in check for almost 30 months. That should be seen as a strong warning sign that this is now, with little doubt, a bull market. Fair enough... I do not have a contrary view to yours, I just choose to use better timing as to when I expand on it. I have a lot of "friends" here and wouldn't like to make implications that cloud what the shorter term trading landscape looks like since most here are traders. As mentioned, though, I always appreciate your insight Hammond. Thanks and GL |
|
|
|
Post by commodityypro on Mar 17, 2010 13:58:55 GMT -5
Brosin - Let's see if this dip get's bought. Should be the key to whether or not your blow off top is now or it's going to have to wait.
|
|
|
|
Post by brosin on Mar 17, 2010 13:58:59 GMT -5
I would not be going short yet. Still not enough volume came in for this to be a top yet imo.
If I missed FAZ, so be it! But still waiting patiently.
|
|
