|
|
Post by brosin on Jun 8, 2010 9:12:51 GMT -5
Sorry folks, this is not 2008.
8/28/10 UPDATE: Short term, was great call - 6/8 was the bottom (1042) and market would go up in straight line 8.5% to 1131 before pulling back 6/21; the correction from there would be severe = Caution Sign Call
|
|
|
|
Post by annoyed on Jun 8, 2010 9:21:04 GMT -5
Sorry folks, this is not 2008. It's worse. |
|
|
|
Post by brosin on Jun 8, 2010 9:30:03 GMT -5
No chance, sorry.
In 2008 the whole globe was leveraged to the moon, 20 to 30x being the norm. Systemic risk with Bear, Lehman, AIG...
I don't think we're *anywhere* near that. Government debt is not a new problem anywhere, nor is it nearly as serious in the short term because governments can always print money. Companies do not have that option.
I will be taking a break from the board with regard to this type of thing though, mainly because I am just frustrated. I was uberpermacommoditymeredithwhitney bearish for the final month worth of the last 17% rally we had in 6 weeks, and no one was listening then which frustrated me. Now I'm back on the opposite end and it's just as frustrating. I feel like I'm in a non-stop twilight zone of sorts
|
|
|
|
Post by shipoffools on Jun 8, 2010 9:30:20 GMT -5
Where's the capitulation selling? Did it happen already?
|
|
|
|
Post by brosin on Jun 8, 2010 9:36:02 GMT -5
Got me. I thought it already did, but time will tell. Bulls have been thoroughly washed away from this market though, which is evidenced strongly on this board.
|
|
|
|
Post by supranatural on Jun 8, 2010 9:46:26 GMT -5
I am with you brosin, too much Doom out there , you can feel the fear... I think that the best risk/regards movement now is going BULL ....
|
|
|
|
Post by cosmic on Jun 8, 2010 10:08:44 GMT -5
It's doomish because there's wealth destruction going on with people and their investments they can't move, or have difficulty moving i.e. 401k or IRA-type funds (IRA being much more flexible as you can buy FAZ if you want.) Those people in 401k's though, they have no bearish choices other than cash. (Bond funds I don't think count as 'bearish.')
I can understand your frustration with trying to make the bull case in this current market (whatever it is), but is that frustration because you can't convince people it's not going down when it is, daily?
Bros, I don't think you have to defend the market, or the price action, or people's choices one way or the other. But since we are supposed to be 'traders,' and thus go WITH the market direction whichever it takes, you've done little to support the current market action (i.e. down), and are trying to make/support a bottom call that has not happened yet, so invariably you will tire out.
Take a look at the charts both ways. I know 1040 is more or less your "have to take another look"
|
|
|
|
Post by cosmic on Jun 8, 2010 10:10:28 GMT -5
This is important because I can make a case that says RIFIN goes back to 600-620 area based on the current pattern. 620 is a pretty steep fall from here.
|
|
|
|
Post by kingdisco on Jun 8, 2010 10:15:30 GMT -5
lol seems like these next few price targets will be important. i will agree here that if your the average joe and you just lost 10-20% in the stock market, i don't it will make him feel like buying a new car. lol
|
|
|
|
Post by Dualism on Jun 8, 2010 10:17:42 GMT -5
The next earnings season can't come soon enough.  |
|
|
|
Post by brosin on Jun 8, 2010 10:18:31 GMT -5
It's doomish because there's wealth destruction going on with people and their investments they can't move, or have difficulty moving i.e. 401k or IRA-type funds (IRA being much more flexible as you can buy FAZ if you want.) Those people in 401k's though, they have no bearish choices other than cash. (Bond funds I don't think count as 'bearish.') I can understand your frustration with trying to make the bull case in this current market (whatever it is), but is that frustration because you can't convince people it's not going down when it is, daily? Bros, I don't think you have to defend the market, or the price action, or people's choices one way or the other. But since we are supposed to be 'traders,' and thus go WITH the market direction whichever it takes, you've done little to support the current market action (i.e. down), and are trying to make/support a bottom call that has not happened yet, so invariably you will tire out. Take a look at the charts both ways. I know 1040 is more or less your "have to take another look" Cos, I completely get what you are trying to say here. Completely. But no, it's the frustration that people don't see that they are betting foolishly on (much longer) continuations of straight line moves that are maturing. I was trying to "convince" everyone that the market was going to correct coming out of that (what became a) 17% move. And now I'm trying to "convince" everyone that the market is going to recover from this 15% correction. I wouldn't use that word to describe what I'm trying to do though - I would describe it as (yet again) trying to make people realize that this isn't 2008 and that the market is not going to go down in a straight line just as it wasn't going to go up. When we were at 1200 SPX or thereabouts, everyone was saying 1300/1400/whatever. Now here at 1050 or thereabouts, everyone is saying 850/900/whatever. So there you have it. I have *few* doubts about where we are headed, but I might be wrong for yet a little while longer. Something would have to drastically change fundamentally for me to change that. For you and/or others that follow me, I have consistently been a few weeks early on the general market moves. It was 2 or 3 weeks ago that I posted my "Same $hit, different month" post.  |
|
|
|
Post by Rich on Jun 8, 2010 10:18:52 GMT -5
yep, 1040. Sold my FAZ calls.
However, will look to re-enter short if....
downside break through of 1040 or...
a pop to the upside.
I'm not even considering long at this point.
|
|
|
|
Post by bellevuetrader on Jun 8, 2010 10:21:45 GMT -5
The fact is we rallied for a year....long and hard...and now the market is taking a breather. Everyone thinks its the end of the world...even myself. But good times will prevail and the world will go back to being a happy go lucky place. Go take a break from the recent action and sit on the sidelines. It's very easy to overtrade this market at which point you don't know up from down. Trust me...I've chased my tail many times and perhaps I'm even doing it now with buying FAS.
|
|
|
|
Post by cosmic on Jun 8, 2010 10:26:58 GMT -5
Gotcha Bros, and you know where I stand as well. Check out my comment on the Market Trend sticky... it better expresses some of my thoughts here... but I don't want to just copy the post in both spaces.
|
|
|
|
Post by brosin on Jun 8, 2010 10:28:05 GMT -5
Go take a break from the recent action and sit on the sidelines. Good points Belle - don't get the wrong impression here tho. I've actually been making money somehow over the past couple weeks (although lost more than I made in the weeks prior to that lol). Probably because I haven't bought a "real" stock and stuck with only penny trades for the past 2 months or so. I did buy APWR yesterday and look where that got me! |
|
|
|
Post by bellevuetrader on Jun 8, 2010 10:33:00 GMT -5
I see what the problem is....you're losing too many bernankebucks to commod and the crew huh? lol!
|
|
|
|
Post by bellevuetrader on Jun 8, 2010 10:33:36 GMT -5
Go play the bounce in FAS....it's on sale and can be yours today for the low price of $19.99, but you've got to hurry! LOL!
|
|
|
|
Post by novice08 on Jun 8, 2010 10:33:30 GMT -5
lol seems like these next few price targets will be important. i will agree here that if your the average joe and you just lost 10-20% in the stock market, i don't it will make him feel like buying a new car. lol Not to mention a house.  |
|
daddy
Cash Account Trader
Posts: 8
|
Post by daddy on Jun 8, 2010 10:34:41 GMT -5
to say that betting on the bear case is foolish, is simply a foolish statement. i dont think anyone is sure whats going to happen next. seems like little conviction either side with low volume drifts most of the year. you said that your weeks ahead of yourself in your calls, so what your saying is you have been wrong over a month. the fact is europe will hurt top line growth for some US companies, and the tax raise in 6 months will hurt bottom line growth. so taking a 2 plus month pause is not out of line
|
|
|
|
Post by brosin on Jun 8, 2010 10:38:28 GMT -5
I see what the problem is....you're losing too many bernankebucks to commod and the crew huh? lol! Losing? I'm up 10-1 going back to last year! |
|
|
|
Post by merrillstanley on Jun 8, 2010 10:40:35 GMT -5
Bros, no doom and gloom...unless you're a Flyer's fan
|
|
|
|
Post by brosin on Jun 8, 2010 10:41:31 GMT -5
to say that betting on the bear case is foolish, is simply a foolish statement. i dont think anyone is sure whats going to happen next. seems like little conviction either side with low volume drifts most of the year. you said that your weeks ahead of yourself in your calls, so what your saying is you have been wrong over a month. the fact is europe will hurt top line growth for some US companies, and the tax raise in 6 months will hurt bottom line growth. so taking a 2 plus month pause is not out of line You make some good points; and yes, I have been wrong for a good 3 weeks now. One, that is not new for me. And two, missing a 5% move is nothing when you end up making over 10% when all is said and done. That's how it's played out quite a few times now. You did mischaracterize what I said though I should mention. I'm not saying betting on the bear case is foolish in general. I'm saying that at *this level* *right now,* it is *very* foolish/risky/whatever you want to call it to be betting on what is already a mature 17% move in a short time period. |
|
|
|
Post by Rich on Jun 8, 2010 10:42:33 GMT -5
Daddy, if you know Bros like I do, you know he is a good trader. He's made some calls that have blown my mind.
eom...
|
|
|
|
Post by brosin on Jun 8, 2010 10:51:50 GMT -5
Thanks Rich, but let's be honest. I'm no better than a breakeven trader at best. I make my share of good moves, but the bad moves more than make up for them - and we all know trading's more about how much you lose on the losers than how much you gain on the gainers. I'm a much longer term guy and I think my LTaccount performance vs. trading accout performance accurately reflects that. I will always consider day trading to be like guessing the weather, which is probably why I'm outright terrible at it sometimes.
|
|
|
|
Post by Rich on Jun 8, 2010 11:07:41 GMT -5
Don't get down on yourself, dude.
But to Cos's original point, the trend is down until proven otherwise.
I think, st, a bounce is in order. But I will still be looking to short it, although maybe not until tomorrow or the next day.
The eod moves should end. They're not going to make it that easy.
|
|
|
|
Post by ukarlewitz on Jun 8, 2010 11:14:21 GMT -5
It'll be doom until well past the bottom, and then it will belatedly switch to boom. When the market is going down, there is always one more downside target. I'm not calling a bottom or catching a falling knife but I agree that the doom thing is starting to reach an apex.
|
|
daddy
Cash Account Trader
Posts: 8
|
Post by daddy on Jun 8, 2010 11:33:07 GMT -5
hey guys, it wasn't a shoot at brosin, i've been lurking around for over a year (didnt want to join a procrastinate on my other goals) so i know you guys are great. I'm with you brosin, i dont play the short term moves, i loook for the long runs, only made one trade this year in my big account and it was drn in feb and made out big. If you remember the feb move up from the bottom it was a low volume melt up, this kinda reeks similar to the down side, so it could last a while ( i think it might). keep up the good work bros, its all about confidence
|
|
daddy
Cash Account Trader
Posts: 8
|
Post by daddy on Jun 8, 2010 11:36:11 GMT -5
i forgot to mention, i think we end year higher, and you very well could be right, but short term i think its risky either way. im 80% cash, except for my micro caps and oil account. if were playing the full disclosure game
|
|
|
|
Post by trading4dough on Jun 8, 2010 11:36:23 GMT -5
It's doomish because there's wealth destruction going on with people and their investments they can't move, or have difficulty moving i.e. 401k or IRA-type funds (IRA being much more flexible as you can buy FAZ if you want.) Those people in 401k's though, they have no bearish choices other than cash. (Bond funds I don't think count as 'bearish.') I can understand your frustration with trying to make the bull case in this current market (whatever it is), but is that frustration because you can't convince people it's not going down when it is, daily? Bros, I don't think you have to defend the market, or the price action, or people's choices one way or the other. But since we are supposed to be 'traders,' and thus go WITH the market direction whichever it takes, you've done little to support the current market action (i.e. down), and are trying to make/support a bottom call that has not happened yet, so invariably you will tire out. Take a look at the charts both ways. I know 1040 is more or less your "have to take another look" Very well put Cos |
|
|
|
Post by trading4dough on Jun 8, 2010 11:39:49 GMT -5
I think what we are seeing has more to do with the Banksters (aka GS) and the Politicos
Cos we have talked about this before
They are trying to squeeze the Govt
They control the market
They are showing them what can happen if they choose for it to go that way
|
|
