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Post by brosin on May 20, 2010 11:30:54 GMT -5
Have posted this here before but couldn't find it with a search. It's time to pound the table again. If the timing is similar, I'll be a week and a half early with this BUY BUY BUY call.
Jan 24, 2010: messages.finance.yahoo.com/Business_%26_Finance/Investments/Stocks_(A_to_Z)/Stocks_D/threadview?bn=87811&tid=506645&mid=506645*Onto the soapbox* I don't get it guys. I suppose a short term mindset does reign supreme on a triple leverage ETF, but yet I'm still very surprised. I feel like we are watching the same movie every couple weeks without anyone realizing we've already seen it. We go from the bulls being uber loud to the bears being uber loud like clockwork, with both expecting their side to win in a straight line fashion (usually with most people switching sides just before the reversal, I should mention). People are saying this is feels new, feels different. Of course it does - so did the time before this, the time before that, and the time before that. How could a correction work if it weren't believable? Looking at the S&P chart, there have been 7 noticeable pullbacks. All of them had to do with short term noise that is always easily forgotten. We might see a false break like we did in the late June/early July correction, or we might even move (gasp!) sideways for awhile (as I'd argue the financials have done over the past many months). Bears are foaming at the mouth yet again - definitely not the first time, and definitely not the last time. I've sounded like a mid-range broken record over the past year, no doubt - but the basics have not changed; we're a year into an economic recovery which will eventually culminate after we've had the boom that follows the bust. Rates remain at historical lows which means any economic fall-back will be met by further government/central bank intervention. The end game (which we see talk of each time we run to the upper channel of the uptrend) is inflation, which means you want to own assets, not cash. Last of all, Obama may talk a big game with regard to the banks, but it seems like 90% rhetoric, 10% substance. You can bet he knows damn well that crushing the banks means crushing the economy and crushing his re-election. He's on their side by default, and don't think he doesn't know it. That's enough from me, but my final point is this. Context: why would the big boys have let the market fall so fast without buying those little intraday dips as they have for the past year (an important question because you know that's all the drop was, a lack of big vol dip buyers). **Ding Ding Ding** - 2010 FOMC Meetings January 26-27. www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypo... Can you say, enticing Treasury buyers to keep rates low into the meeting? I know I've seen this movie before. The ending is just so much more fun. We'll be at SPX 1200 before the continuation of the movie ("Bears VIII: Stuck in the "Realities" of '08") starts up again. I personally liked Bears VII better myself.Current 5/20/10 COMMENTS: ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ I could go through and give a long winded argument for why not much has changed from when the market was at 1220 (and everyone calling for 1300+); we are now at 1080 and people are calling for death and destruction. Maybe 1050, maybe 1025, who knows, but given that the strategy has not failed yet in a full year, we should make a new market high of over 1220 SPX by June 22, 23 FOMC meeting. It will take a 13% move from here to get there, and I'm guessing it will probably need closer to 15-17% move by the time the correction is over. It will look grim, just as it did on Feb 5th, and then a month later it will look spectactular. Round and Round she goes. I'm a big fan of this Bears VIII: Stuck in the "Realities" of 2008 movie we're watching now. It is one of the better ones, especially given the May 6th Crash that was involved in getting it started. Bears IX had better not dissapoint, although it won't start up again until we're at least at 1250 SPX. |
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Post by Clinton SPX on May 20, 2010 11:42:15 GMT -5
Brosin I love this post. This sell off is a scam. Euro is rock solid last two days and Greece is still only 2% of the EU GDP
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Post by brosin on May 20, 2010 11:50:16 GMT -5
Brosin I love this post. This sell off is a scam. Euro is rock solid last two days and Greece is still only 2% of the EU GDP Thanks Clinton, glad you like it - I too think this is pretty scammy. But it's just so predictable each time. You see all the same signs as in late January of everyone selling, saying why would you buy, the world is ending, blah blah blah. Nothing has changed - it's like I've been saying all along, "GREECE AGAIN?!" It's almost funny except that I know alot of people (myself included) have loss their asses on this move. Anyone who buys a few stocks here, tomorrow, next week, etc and waits a month or 2 will be very happy. The *only* thing that gives me pause is the May 6th crash. I have little faith in the market after seeing that. BUT I think that's the key here - it's the main reason the market has sold off I think; fear is now back just as it is in every correction. This one seemed to take a sledgehammer to get started though, so maybe that's why it had to happen that way to force the market to take a breath. May 6th was no coincidence or random occurance - there is absolutely no doubt in my mind that it was a coordinated effort; the question is, is it a sign of things to come or was it just what I mentioned (the only way to force the market correction to begin)? I would call myself cautiously optimistic here overall. |
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Post by deadmoney95 on May 20, 2010 11:54:52 GMT -5
bravo, brosin. i agree 100% and was about to try to articulate it myself in a post, but you have done so exponentially better than I could have.
Thanks, bro. You are the man.
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Post by trading4dough on May 20, 2010 11:57:14 GMT -5
Best saying ever
The market can remain irrational longer then you can stay liquid
Dont get tempted into margin
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Post by cosmic on May 20, 2010 12:44:26 GMT -5
Ok, except that it would be Bears VIII: Stuck in the "Realities" of '08"
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Post by brosin on May 20, 2010 12:55:14 GMT -5
Duh- whoops lol. When in Rome...!
P.S. You could've at least hidden your disagreement a little better ;D
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Post by DaveContrarian on May 20, 2010 13:03:20 GMT -5
Short term, the market is moved by sentiment.
As I said in another thread, you can tell which way the market is headed by how market interprets news. All news is interpreted very negatively. For example, today's unemployment claims.
For the market to move up, the market has to be biased the other way -- that is, negative news is ignored and reacts to positive news. It is definitely not the case right now.
The market has much more to fall.
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Post by brosin on May 20, 2010 13:06:40 GMT -5
Short term, the market is moved by sentiment. As I said in another thread, you can tell which way the market is headed by how market interprets news. All news is interpreted very negatively. For example, today's unemployment claims. For the market to move up, the market has to be biased the other way -- that is, negative news is ignored and reacts to positive news. It is definitely not the case right now. The market has much more to fall. Yeah I responded to your post in the other thread. What I would counter your ponit with is that price action will turn *WELL* before the market starts interpretting news differently. So by your logic of how you should play it, you will be trapped either out of the market or short, and then will fear chasing and probably miss a good majority of the move before you realize what has happened. Happened Feb 5th & April 26 on complete opposite ends of the spectrum, but very easy to see. |
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Post by brosin on May 20, 2010 14:01:29 GMT -5
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Post by DaveContrarian on May 20, 2010 14:13:46 GMT -5
Yeah I responded to your post in the other thread. What I would counter your ponit with is that price action will turn *WELL* before the market starts interpretting news differently. I read your post. As I explained, I don't think we are using the term "news" in the same way. When I talk about news, I am talking about real information. You are talking about headlines or what a reporter's opinion. It is an impossibility for the market to move BEFORE the market (collection of individuals) learns of a real piece of information, because the market is not a psychic. Since what moves the market is individual investors reacting to information they acquired, the market's move cannot occur before the "news" (by my definition of the term "news"). There is a real difference between what one news media reports, and the actual information that the market assimilates in real time. Since we are retail investors, we are almost always late in getting the real information. The reason is that we have to go through slow, news media. |
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Post by brosin on May 20, 2010 14:42:54 GMT -5
It is an impossibility for the market to move BEFORE the market (collection of individuals) learns of a real piece of information, because the market is not a psychic. Whoa, whoa, WHOA there. Impossibility? I think we just see things differently, but I don't think the market moves off information per say, it moves by going the opposite of how the market is biased and pushing those on the wrong side to the max until it has reversed and then the market reverses. The information is interpretted in a biased way because of how the price action responded. Not to mention, I could go all quantum physics on you here too and say that we all collectively already know what is going to happen in the future, we just don't *know* that we know it yet. But I won't.  |
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Post by internationalyank on May 20, 2010 15:39:32 GMT -5
Great post, many people have short memories, it wasn't so long ago that a lot of people were very bullish, risk seemed to be the last thing on people's minds. All this BS happening in the market has happened a number of times before over the last few months. I am not anywhere near the best trader/investor here but I have often avoided making a loss just by holding on to what I have and not using margin. I was losing a ton of cash on FAZ, DRV and a FAS short position a while back, after a few weeks of suffering, I made pretty good money on all of them.
I am now only holding FAS at ave. $25, I got more today at 22.44, it might go down some more but I'm not worried at all, it's only a paper loss and in the longer term, $25 is gonna look like a fantastic bargain if Hammond Keys is right (and he has been a lot of times). The point I'm trying to make is that as long as we don't panic, we should be ok in the longer term. Anyway, just my 3 cents and good luck to all of you...
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Post by Clinton SPX on May 20, 2010 18:09:33 GMT -5
I understand the sell off 2 years ago, most companies were going to experience huge losses. Dell post 53% increase. This sell off is nuts and based on nothingness.
I guess I dont grasp the big picture and I'll leave it at that
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Post by jack on May 20, 2010 18:40:19 GMT -5
I understand the sell off 2 years ago, most companies were going to experience huge losses. Dell post 53% increase. This sell off is nuts and based on nothingness. I guess I dont grasp the big picture and I'll leave it at that I ain't no macro-economic wizard Clint, but my guess is that its got something to do about unsustainable debt somewhere. LOL!!! |
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Post by Clinton SPX on May 20, 2010 18:57:03 GMT -5
Ya, I know Jack. Greece should just default. If you loan money to a crack head and he spends it all on crack and he cant pay you back it should be your tough luck for loaning him the money. This having the whole neighborhood take the hit BS is getting really old.
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Post by Clinton SPX on May 20, 2010 18:57:43 GMT -5
Some crazy futures buying right now
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Post by DaveContrarian on May 20, 2010 20:49:23 GMT -5
Ya, I know Jack. Greece should just default. If you loan money to a crack head and he spends it all on crack and he cant pay you back it should be your tough luck for loaning him the money. This having the whole neighborhood take the hit BS is getting really old. The market is no longer worried that Greece will default. Rather, the market is worried that helping Greece is causing too much money to be printed (in effect). This is cause Euro to devalue. Consider, for example, Greek bond purchases by European banks. This is injecting liquidity into Euro, devaluing it. The investors don't like that, so they sell Euro. This devaluing of Euro cannot end quickly, as long as the Europe is injecting liquidity into Greece. |
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shah
Futures Trader
Posts: 351
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Post by shah on May 20, 2010 20:57:35 GMT -5
Ya, I know Jack. Greece should just default. If you loan money to a crack head and he spends it all on crack and he cant pay you back it should be your tough luck for loaning him the money. This having the whole neighborhood take the hit BS is getting really old. The market is no longer worried that Greece will default. Rather, the market is worried that helping Greece is causing too much money to be printed (in effect). This is cause Euro to devalue. Consider, for example, Greek bond purchases by European banks. This is injecting liquidity into Euro, devaluing it. The investors don't like that, so they sell Euro. This devaluing of Euro cannot end quickly, as long as the Europe is injecting liquidity into Greece. This makes perfect sense, what happened to US $ from March 09 to November 09 is now happening to Euro.  |
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Post by Clinton SPX on May 20, 2010 21:01:32 GMT -5
Everyone that bought 3X bears AH are going to freak out if they run these futures up tonight.
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Post by DaveContrarian on May 20, 2010 21:04:21 GMT -5
Everyone that bought 3X bears AH are going to freak out if they run these futures up tonight. It is annoying that the market sentiment is so negative. I mean, when the Euro goes down, the market goes down. Well, at the moment, the Euro is up, but the futures isn't. Now, THAT is a bearish market. |
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Post by Clinton SPX on May 20, 2010 21:05:59 GMT -5
1071 right now 1072
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Post by brosin on May 21, 2010 2:01:53 GMT -5
Everyone that bought 3X bears AH are going to freak out if they run these futures up tonight. We are on the same page here Clinton - the AH run in FAZ made me think nothing other than "this is a trap;" and that coming from someone whose trading account is solely in non-marginable stocks SPNG/ACLH/IMGG. The one thing I am concerned about however, is the VIX in the 40s. That does not signal a healthy anything. I very much hope the market starts running tomorrow and doesn't look back until 1250 - I mean honestly, let's try to place ourselves back 4 weeks ago.. it seemed like the market would never go down again. And look at us now. As CH has mentioned with regard to other things, it is not what it seems. |
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Post by Clinton SPX on May 21, 2010 7:24:09 GMT -5
Stocks to Come Back With a Vengeance: Strategist
Markets are significantly undervalued in terms of corporate earnings, and stocks are set to bounce back with a vengeance, Christian Blaabjerg, Strategist at Saxo Bank, told CNBC Friday.
Bearishness has dominated the market in recent weeks, and stocks officially entered correction territory on Thursday.
The Dow has fallen 10.2 percent decline since April 26, and The S&P 500 fell to 1,071 yesterday, a 12 percent decline from its April high.
In the short-term, stocks won’t rally, and may even continue their downward trend, with the S&P 500 possibly testing "the 1,000 level within a couple weeks,” Blaabjerg said.
But corporate earnings have easily surged past Street forecasts, with 77 percent of all companies beating expectations, compared to just 16 percent missing conesnsus targets.
“We had a better-than-expectations earnings season behind us," Blaabjerg said.
"So in the long term, I’m still optimistic on equities.” Earnings expectations could dive in the medium-term, but in the long-term, we’ll see “a massive boost in earnings," he said. "Unit labor costs are still very low.”
Blaabgerg is particularly bullish on technology and consumer staples. “Technology is my favorite play," he said. "Go long Intel or Cisco. All people are now using BlackBerries instead of normal cell phones.”
Fear and anxiety continue to affect investor decisions because of the sovereign debt crisis and pending financial regulatory reforms, but investors whould watch for moments to re-enter the market, he said.
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Post by timber on May 21, 2010 7:34:08 GMT -5
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