China GDP rumors

[tendermyshares]

You know, I often hear rumors about such and such an economic number beating or missing. I've heard these rumors about China beating with their GDP tonight all day. But, this is the first time I've seen any one of these type of rumors on the front page of Yahoo. In my mind that's a bit of a yellow flag. I guess we'll see.

One trick with this rumor is that there was apparently a paper out suggesting China's GDP would be 9.0% next year, and I believe that's what the rumor is calling for tonight's report. Sometimes these rumors, though often accurate, mix up things like that. It happened a lot with the Greek bailout percentages.

PS, there is another rumor that China will lower their RRR, Reserve Requirement Ratio, tonight or in the next week, which would initially be contrary to an increased GDP.


10 p.m. EST tonight, along with industrial production and retail sales.

Lower euro-zone yields, China GDP view lift Wall Street
Reuters – 34 minutes ago.. .
By Angela Moon

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rose more than 1 percent on Thursday as lower Italian bond yields eased some euro-zone concerns and rumors about China's strong GDP growth bolstered investors' appetite for risk

finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-index-futures-signal-early-110158240.html

[Clinton SPX]

Theres a math formula for calculating GDP. One of the components for that formula is export/inport.
we already have the results for export/inports so its improved odds of guessing what the GDP number will be

[Clinton SPX]

Trade surplus pushes GDP higher

[tendermyshares]

Imports missed expectations, indicating their economy may not be growing as fast as anticipated due to lack of importing raw materials.

This only confirms my theory. "Sources" are hyping the wrong conclusions from those numbers.

"Imports undershot expectations, growing 5.3 percent on the year in March - consistent with other data suggesting soggy domestic demand in the first quarter of the year."

[Clinton SPX]

I could have swore bloom said they came in better than expected

[Clinton SPX]

Apr 12, 2012 14:49:46 GMT -5 tendermyshares said:

Imports missed expectations, indicating their economy may not be growing as fast as anticipated due to lack of importing raw materials.

This only confirms my theory. "Sources" are hyping the wrong conclusions from those numbers.

"Imports undershot expectations, growing 5.3 percent on the year in March - consistent with other data suggesting soggy domestic demand in the first quarter of the year."

wait wait. Imports undershot is a positive for GDP

[tendermyshares]

That was Reuters. I'm only talking about the import component there.

www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/10/us-china-economy-trade-idUSBRE83903H20120410

Of course, their GDP is whatever they want it to be, even more so than here.

[Clinton SPX]

Importing is BAD for GDP

[tendermyshares]

I don't argue against the idea that those numbers may be good for GDP, but on the other hand they may reflect some other missing components that will need to be accounted for. Import/export is of course not the ONLY component of GDP.

It would be better if exports increased alongside of imports growing as expected, rather than exports increasing but imports missing.

[tendermyshares]

China GDP missed estimates! Missing the inflated rumor numbers make it even worse.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[im2buzzi]

This rumor bothered me all day and then I accidently watched a few minutes of the beginning of Mad Money tonight where Jim Cramer mentioned the rumor almost like he knew it to be a fact. He just seemed so sure of it. Reminds me why I don't watch anymore.

[tendermyshares]

Yeah, it was getting too much press, that's what I was noticing too.