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Post by theMIST on Apr 9, 2012 18:21:47 GMT -5
S&P chart looking bearish Price action would have to get back above 20dsma and stay there to remain bullish. I think tomorrow we get a backtest of 1395ish area where I will move the remaining 50% of my 401(k) into stable fund (cash). In trading account, will hold only cash overnight as we are toppy. Of course Ben can change all this in a blink. comments welcome S&P Daily Chart  S&P Daily chart zoomed in  |
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Post by huh? on Apr 9, 2012 19:11:29 GMT -5
That's exactly how I'm seeing it and expecting. Which usually means it won't happen that way. LOL. But have to play it as we see it until it proves otherwise.
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Post by jack on Apr 9, 2012 19:16:00 GMT -5
I think I'd agree w/ your assessment Rob....nice charts but the problem w/ charting the SPX vs the SPY is that the former doesn't show the gaps as well imo, does it?
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Post by puurfectten on Apr 9, 2012 19:20:38 GMT -5
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Post by theMIST on Apr 9, 2012 19:21:19 GMT -5
Thats correct -- to look for gaps in S&P you use SPY and there's an unfilled gap SPY 133.40 - 133.64.
There's also a gap 135.91 - 136.24 and of course today's gap down as well
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Post by jack on Apr 9, 2012 19:27:09 GMT -5
Its NOT an H&S (rt shoulder's higher than the head) so what am I supposed to be seeing? TIA |
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Post by theMIST on Apr 9, 2012 19:31:52 GMT -5
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Post by rex on Apr 9, 2012 19:32:14 GMT -5
It's a H&S attempting to form right as we speak on the 10 min. Looks like it could take us to the 1365 area if it plays out!!!
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Post by jack on Apr 9, 2012 19:36:24 GMT -5
Ok...if you are suggesting it IS an H&S what's the min downside target? I'm getting 1358 is that about right? Thanks Rob & Exalt!  |
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Post by theMIST on Apr 9, 2012 19:37:28 GMT -5
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Post by theMIST on Apr 9, 2012 19:42:28 GMT -5
Hopefully Dino will chime in. He's the S&P eminis expert. For futures trading you really need TD Ameritrade and that way you don't have to rely on forexpros to see what futures are doing.
S&P eminis clearly shows H&S topping pattern
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Post by rex on Apr 9, 2012 20:16:04 GMT -5
It's getting clearer by the min. OMG, we really could be going down much further!!!
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Post by theMIST on Apr 9, 2012 20:16:26 GMT -5
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Post by Rich on Apr 9, 2012 20:20:13 GMT -5
OMG!
you guys are so bearish!
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Post by dino on Apr 9, 2012 20:59:44 GMT -5
Hopefully Dino will chime in. He's the S&P eminis expert. For futures trading you really need TD Ameritrade and that way you don't have to rely on forexpros to see what futures are doing. S&P eminis clearly shows H&S topping pattern Nice thread Mist. +1. My neck line is a little different than yours - I have it going straight across. I like this neck line because the jobs numbers last Friday made that big red stick cut right through on volume which helps validate the pattern. IMO, if we drift up to that 1386 area we'll see bears pounce all over the markets. If the invisible hand pushes it up and over, we'll see short covering from hell. lol. Target with the more horizontal neck line is 1353 (if it plays out). I'm trying to keep an ES thread updated daily so we can better track it... fastopia.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=exchange&action=display&thread=33675&page=1Here's the latest 4hr pic...  |
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Post by dino on Apr 9, 2012 21:11:13 GMT -5
Here's another thing... Isn't it funny how we all talked about those rising wedges for so long and nothing ever happened? DJT broke, but most of the others just drifted if I remember correctly.
Now fast forward a few weeks when nobody's talking about it and BOOM - SPX breaks down. lol....
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Post by Clinton SPX on Apr 9, 2012 21:14:15 GMT -5
OMG! you guys are so bearish! big reversal to upside soon then |
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Post by dino on Apr 9, 2012 21:17:17 GMT -5
OMG! you guys are so bearish! big reversal to upside soon then If that es pattern back tests, I think it fails. If this were a true move down, they wouldn't let longs out that easily. |
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Post by Clinton SPX on Apr 9, 2012 21:22:03 GMT -5
Im looking at it this way.
I would never be short for the christmas rally
soooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
since the DOW best month is April EVEN BETTER THAN DEC on avg
I sure as hell wouldnt be short going into earnings
but thats just me. Can always be diff this time.
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Post by novice08 on Apr 9, 2012 21:22:57 GMT -5
If this is due to no QE3 announcement, it makes no sense to me...why would they announce 2-1/2 mos. before Operation Twist expires and ZIRP still in effect. Just don't see that.
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Post by puurfectten on Apr 9, 2012 21:31:32 GMT -5
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Post by theMIST on Apr 9, 2012 22:00:19 GMT -5
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Post by tendermyshares on Apr 9, 2012 22:38:18 GMT -5
If that's really a bearish rising wedge breaking down in that time frame, it's a longer way down than anyone could possibly imagine. So, since we can't imagine it, *plugs ears* "I can't hear you, I can't hear you, I can't hear you."
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Post by theMIST on Apr 12, 2012 14:56:00 GMT -5
Nice bullish move but so far this is just a backtest - IMO S&P can still rise up to 1397ish level Indicators also still bearish Bulls have more work to do before I can put the bull hat back on. S&P Daily chart  Uploaded with ImageShack.us |
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Post by huh? on Apr 12, 2012 15:06:36 GMT -5
Nice bullish move but so far this is just a backtest - IMO S&P can still rise up to 1397ish level Indicators also still bearish Bulls have more work to do before I can put the bull hat back on. S&P Daily chart Uploaded with ImageShack.usHope you're right. I saw the same thing. Bought some TVIX late today. Would also set-up a pretty large H&S pattern, and 1397 would be the 61.8% FIB retrace of the entire down move (the last chance for bears IMO). 1390 is the 50% FIB, which is why I grabbed some TVIX now. |
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Post by theMIST on Apr 12, 2012 15:32:28 GMT -5
I have a stink bid in for TVIX in AH. I don't think it has the slightest chance of filling.
I'm thinking TVIX comes down a little more before rebounding.
I also moved my remaining funds in 401(k) to cash (stable fund) today. If I miss a little upside -- so be it. I'd rather be a little early, not be greedy and protect gains. When the selling hits, its definitely not pretty.
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Post by theMIST on Apr 12, 2012 15:51:59 GMT -5
my apologies - did a redraw - 2 possible necklines - horizontal neckline and slanted BTW -- here is the DOW (LOL Huh) futures showing backtest of H&S. More wiggle room to upside before tagging it  Uploaded with ImageShack.us |
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Post by jack on Apr 12, 2012 15:54:30 GMT -5
BTW -- here is the S&P eminis showing perfect backtest of H&S  Uploaded with ImageShack.usBeautiful! Exalt! |
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Post by brosin on Apr 12, 2012 15:58:37 GMT -5
Awesome charts in here
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Post by huh? on Apr 12, 2012 16:00:17 GMT -5
OMG!
The S&P is nearly 13,000!
Boy did I miss one helluva day!
LOL
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