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Post by dino on Apr 4, 2012 10:51:49 GMT -5
I don't like #1: We broke the white ascending trend line. I don't like #2: We broke the first red horizontal support line. What I really won't like is if we get to the second red horizontal support line and we don't bounce hard. If we blow through that line on volume, DOOM....  |
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Post by huh? on Apr 4, 2012 11:12:00 GMT -5
S&P chart is looking about the same. Under the ascending trend line in place since 10/04.
Hit it on 12/19 and 03/06 and bounced hard both times.
What worries me is this time we are under it, and I'm not seeing much of BTFD. Not to mention all of the bearish patterns possibly in play this time.
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Post by dino on Apr 5, 2012 8:14:16 GMT -5
Do or die time for bulls. 30 min chart looks horrible. 1386 has to hold...  |
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Post by dino on Apr 5, 2012 8:16:13 GMT -5
Panned in view of the 30 min. Bear flag a flyin'...  |
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Post by jack on Apr 5, 2012 8:16:34 GMT -5
Exalt!  I voted Baby bull today but I have my doubts... |
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Post by dino on Apr 5, 2012 8:20:21 GMT -5
I voted baby bull as well Jack. I hope I'm right, but it sure looks like I'm gonna be wrong...
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Post by Clinton SPX on Apr 5, 2012 8:28:51 GMT -5
Panned in view of the 30 min. Bear flag a flyin'... Ya but thats an accumulation ABOVE a major support |
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Post by dino on Apr 5, 2012 8:38:24 GMT -5
We don't want to see a break of ES 1386 with volume.
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Post by cosmic on Apr 5, 2012 8:53:20 GMT -5
I think we'll definitely whiffle this area at least a day or so. If the buyers don't rush in it'll be a bit of a bear for a bit.
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Post by cosmic on Apr 5, 2012 8:55:53 GMT -5
/ES sort of saying "Buy me here"
Scary
So I bought a little DRN At 66.30
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Post by dino on Apr 5, 2012 9:07:04 GMT -5
ok, i feel a little better now. i'll feel even better if we get up and over es 1394...
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Post by puurfectten on Apr 5, 2012 19:03:47 GMT -5
Panned in view of the 30 min. Bear flag a flyin'... lol...woke up last night..as usual and looked at em...it was right there @ 1384...jumped out and turned on the computer and scooped some up...  ..i think it was like 5 30 am my cats thought i was nuts standin there naked buyin e-mimi's...  |
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Post by jack on Apr 5, 2012 19:57:32 GMT -5
"In spirit of bear flag" apparent on the SPY's 10min:  |
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Post by tendermyshares on Apr 5, 2012 22:14:46 GMT -5
Everything seems to look like that. I wonder if we get some news over the weekend "In spirit of bear flag" apparent on the SPY's 10min: |
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Post by jack on Apr 5, 2012 22:22:27 GMT -5
Man I'm burnt - goodnite Everything seems to look like that. I wonder if we get some news over the weekend "In spirit of bear flag" apparent on the SPY's 10min: |
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Post by dino on Apr 6, 2012 7:40:42 GMT -5
We don't want to see a break of ES 1386 with volume. There it is. Target 1353.75 if this thing plays out.  |
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Post by puurfectten on Apr 6, 2012 9:24:14 GMT -5
We don't want to see a break of ES 1386 with volume. There it is. Target 1353.75 if this thing plays out. ..was lookin at it....had to sit on my hands and keep sayin..don't catch falling knives..don't catch falling knives....don't catch falling knives...  |
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Post by tendermyshares on Apr 6, 2012 10:24:45 GMT -5
Nasdaq, don't see a candle like this every day. Had a feeling the winter seasonal adjustments would come home to roost about now. Everything will still be OK. Have a great weekend everyone. They say gold is up in London although not trading in NY due to expectations of Fed easing, but I don't think that's gonna pan out when US starts trading next week, it's kinda silly. I can't find the London number online anywhere though I see a news article about it and on Bloomberg TV. I don't see tha Kitco has it - 1638. If anyone knows how to get that please let me know. Not sure if it's still trading in London or not. Edit: OK, I found a pretty good Reuters article on today's gold move and posted it in the thread I started about gold trendline.  Uploaded with ImageShack.us |
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Post by novice08 on Apr 6, 2012 11:15:51 GMT -5
Spot gold hit 1642 this morning & silver 32.02 with NY closed. Silver holding steady around yesterday's close of 31.70 and gold so far holding 1637, up $7 from yesterday's NY close. Does not seem to be helping the miners who should have record profits (again) if oil remains steady to lower. Would of course like to see gold hold 1600 then march past 1800 and silver hold 31 the get through 35 to test 40. But as you know the bullion banks have massive, massive naked shorts.  |
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Post by dino on Apr 6, 2012 11:46:04 GMT -5
There it is. Target 1353.75 if this thing plays out. ..was lookin at it....had to sit on my hands and keep sayin..don't catch falling knives..don't catch falling knives....don't catch falling knives... Purr - how many times were you short for one of these right shoulders? I was always short at least a tad. Hell - for this one I had a small otm spy put position THAT EXPIRED WORTHLESS FRIDAY. Since we bounced off the neck line, this is the one time I didn't buy any weekly puts for next week. *UGH*. Gotta hand it to them, the thieves are good... |
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Post by maxi on Apr 6, 2012 11:49:52 GMT -5
..was lookin at it....had to sit on my hands and keep sayin..don't catch falling knives..don't catch falling knives....don't catch falling knives... Purr - how many times were you short for one of these right shoulders? I was always short at least a tad. Hell - for this one I had a small otm spy put position THAT EXPIRED WORTHLESS FRIDAY. Since we bounced off the neck line, this is the one time I didn't buy any weekly puts for next week. *UGH*. Gotta hand it to them, the thieves are good... Not buying the puts (especially since you wait al week to "see" if they work out, could be a blessing. When something appears as a sure thing (which is how I interpret your post) it usually will not work out especially with options.... |
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Post by dino on Apr 6, 2012 12:29:56 GMT -5
Purr - how many times were you short for one of these right shoulders? I was always short at least a tad. Hell - for this one I had a small otm spy put position THAT EXPIRED WORTHLESS FRIDAY. Since we bounced off the neck line, this is the one time I didn't buy any weekly puts for next week. *UGH*. Gotta hand it to them, the thieves are good... Not buying the puts (especially since you wait al week to "see" if they work out, could be a blessing. When something appears as a sure thing (which is how I interpret your post) it usually will not work out especially with options.... Well, a 16 point drop in 5 minutes on volume through a major neck line of a bearish pattern is as pretty much a sure thing as you're gonna get on a technical pattern like this one. It could back test, if we're lucky, which would give longs a chance to get out and shorts to open positions. But the way this thing is timed (a big down moved at the beginning of a long weekend when markets are closed), I doubt they give longs a chance to get out and shorts a chance to get in hence a put position opened on Thursday would be very lucrative imo. Oh, and I don't wait all week to cover options unless I'm really sure of the move and have deep itm options. Otherwise, the tp will get me. I usually only hold options for 1-3 days. On a move like this for example, I would have at least sold half for probably at least a triple digit percent gain at the open Monday then re-shorted on a back test. |
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Post by Clinton SPX on Apr 6, 2012 14:14:12 GMT -5
Earnings start Tuesday and there's not a sign anywhere of inflation now.
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Post by tendermyshares on Apr 6, 2012 14:53:12 GMT -5
Novice, where are you getting those London spot gold quotes, I can't find it anywhere. I can get the NY prices but I don't see where to get those numbers on this holiday. Spot gold hit 1642 this morning & silver 32.02 with NY closed. Silver holding steady around yesterday's close of 31.70 and gold so far holding 1637, up $7 from yesterday's NY close. Does not seem to be helping the miners who should have record profits (again) if oil remains steady to lower. Would of course like to see gold hold 1600 then march past 1800 and silver hold 31 the get through 35 to test 40. But as you know the bullion banks have massive, massive naked shorts. |
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Post by tajmahal9898 on Apr 6, 2012 16:02:33 GMT -5
Novice, where are you getting those London spot gold quotes, I can't find it anywhere. I can get the NY prices but I don't see where to get those numbers on this holiday. Spot gold hit 1642 this morning & silver 32.02 with NY closed. Silver holding steady around yesterday's close of 31.70 and gold so far holding 1637, up $7 from yesterday's NY close. Does not seem to be helping the miners who should have record profits (again) if oil remains steady to lower. Would of course like to see gold hold 1600 then march past 1800 and silver hold 31 the get through 35 to test 40. But as you know the bullion banks have massive, massive naked shorts. Try www.thebulliondesk.com/ |
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Post by puurfectten on Apr 6, 2012 17:05:17 GMT -5
..was lookin at it....had to sit on my hands and keep sayin..don't catch falling knives..don't catch falling knives....don't catch falling knives... Purr - how many times were you short for one of these right shoulders? I was always short at least a tad. Hell - for this one I had a small otm spy put position THAT EXPIRED WORTHLESS FRIDAY. Since we bounced off the neck line, this is the one time I didn't buy any weekly puts for next week. *UGH*. Gotta hand it to them, the thieves are good... lol..alot..but i learned way too many times the hard way how they just pop it back up and grind the puts out for opex...so i just get out when i have good profits now...works better for me... ..i'll wait til she pops back up and puts in a lower high before i go full bear again... |
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Post by puurfectten on Apr 6, 2012 17:12:07 GMT -5
Not buying the puts (especially since you wait al week to "see" if they work out, could be a blessing. When something appears as a sure thing (which is how I interpret your post) it usually will not work out especially with options.... Well, a 16 point drop in 5 minutes on volume through a major neck line of a bearish pattern is as pretty much a sure thing as you're gonna get on a technical pattern like this one. It could back test, if we're lucky, which would give longs a chance to get out and shorts to open positions. But the way this thing is timed (a big down moved at the beginning of a long weekend when markets are closed), I doubt they give longs a chance to get out and shorts a chance to get in hence a put position opened on Thursday would be very lucrative imo. Oh, and I don't wait all week to cover options unless I'm really sure of the move and have deep itm options. Otherwise, the tp will get me. I usually only hold options for 1-3 days. On a move like this for example, I would have at least sold half for probably at least a triple digit percent gain at the open Monday then re-shorted on a back test. i kinda changed up my whole way of trading...just jumping on and off the spy and vix options...rarely hold more than one day and i would never have been holding puts overnight with that set up...but monday might be really really fun...they might actually bounce the futures all the way back up monday...and no one else gets the move...  |
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Post by huh? on Apr 6, 2012 17:59:14 GMT -5
i kinda changed up my whole way of trading...just jumping on and off the spy and vix options...rarely hold more than one day and i would never have been holding puts overnight with that set up...but monday might be really really fun...they might actually bounce the futures all the way back up monday...and no one else gets the move... That's what I'm hoping for Puur - fill the down gap with a FIB retrace - squeeze the last of the retail shorts after they realize they missed the big downdraft - and make longs feel comfortable since they narrowly escaped the same. A slow crawl early in the week back into the sp1400's, then...   But like Dino said, that might let too many longs out/shorts in. We gapped into all of this (low 1370's), chances are we'll gap right back out of it. I just hope that the futures didn't act as the gap fill - that's happened before. But here's to hoping!  |
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Post by tarzan on Apr 6, 2012 18:36:09 GMT -5
Wouldn't a natural backtest be the 2011 highs?? 50Dma is tracking in that vicinity as well. Keeping my eye on oil as they could use it as an indicator of what games we'll be playing. Last I recall there was a fairly decent sell down in the bigger oilcos over the last week.
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Post by walnut on Apr 6, 2012 19:14:10 GMT -5
It's gonna feel like a fire sale I think, will be buying.
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..i think it was like 5 30 am my cats thought i was nuts standin there naked buyin e-mimi's... 
