|
|
Post by ask2lern on Mar 21, 2012 6:35:27 GMT -5
Good Morning Gang
Here are the pivots……….…hope everyone has a great day ……GLTA
GOLD
R3 1686.97
R2 1668.67
R1 1660.23
PP 1650.37
S1 1641.93
S2 1632.07
S3 1613.77
SILVER
R3 34.01
R2 33.09
R1 32.68
PP 32.17
S1 31.76
S2 31.25
S3 30.33
IWM
R3 84.38
R2 83.66
R1 83.31
PP 82.94
S1 82.59
S2 82.22
S3 81.50
TNA
R3 71.19
R2 67.51
R1 65.78
PP 63.83
S1 62.10
S2 60.15
S3 56.47
TZA
R3 18.75
R2 18.32
R1 18.10
PP 17.89
S1 17.67
S2 17.46
S3 17.03
SDS
R3 15.63
R2 15.42
R1 15.30
PP 15.21
S1 15.09
S2 15.00
S3 14.79
SSO
R3 59.72
R2 58.91
R1 58.60
PP 58.10
S1 57.79
S2 57.29
S3 56.48
…………………………..GLTA
|
|
|
|
Post by ask2lern on Mar 21, 2012 6:37:09 GMT -5
From www.optionmonster.com .............GLTA Tech leaders push Nasdaq 100 higherDespite profit-taking and new fears of a China slowdown, the Nasdaq 100 managed to close higher by 0.16 percent yesterday. The S&P 500 fell 0.3 percent to 1405.52, but only after recovering most of its sharp losses right after the open. As we have seen recently, buyers again stepped back in after a session low was reached in the first hour, this time at 1397.68. This low coincides with last Wednesday's resistance. The Russell 2000 saw the worst of the declines, losing more than 1 percent to 829.24. Recently the RUT has seen increased volatility as it struggles to keep pace with the large-cap indexes. Yesterday afternoon the Nasdaq 100 managed to make a new 2012 high of 2740.35 before settling at 2737.63, up 0.16 percent on the session. Relative strength in heavily weighted index names such as Google, Amazon, and Apple helped lead the index higher. AAPL shares closed at an all-time high of 605.96. S&P 500 Resistance remains 1410, followed by 1414 (Monday's high) and then 1418. Support is now 1400, followed 1397.68, 1393.86, and 1390. Nasdaq 100 Resistance is now 2740.35 (yesterday's high) and then 2745. Support is now 2737.41, followed by 2729.50 and then 2722.12. Russell 2000 Resistance is now 832.41, followed by 835 and then 836.15. Support in the RUT is now 828.93, then 825. |
|
|
|
Post by ask2lern on Mar 21, 2012 6:38:55 GMT -5
From www.optionmonster.com ......................GLTA Mortgages, home sales, oil data on tapToday's economic calendar focuses on the housing market once again with potentially market-moving reports. First up is MBA mortgage applications at 7 a.m. ET. The release is considered a leading indicator for single-family homes and new construction. Next on the docket is existing home sales at 10 a.m. ET, which includes all homes and condos sold in February. The report is expected to come in at 4.61 million, slightly higher than January's 4.57 million. Estimates range from 4.44 million to 4.8 million. To cap off the day is the EIA weekly petroleum release, scheduled figures for 10:30 a.m. ET. Given the recent volatility in the oil market, this data could move the energy markets sharply. Historically a draw on U.S. oil inventories results leads to a rise in crude prices, while a build lowers them. |
|
|
|
Post by ask2lern on Mar 21, 2012 6:39:59 GMT -5
From www.optionmonster.com .......................GLTA VIX gains, futures fall before settlementThe CBOE Volatility Index gained 3.6 percent yesterday, but the VIX futures were mostly lower. The index closed at 15.58 as the S&P 500 was off 0.3 percent to 1405.52. The SPX and the VIX--the S&P's index of implied volatility--usually trade inversely. The March VIX futures, which settle this morning, were up 2.6 percent to 15.95. The April futures were down 3.75 percent to 19.25, while May futures were down 3 percent to 22.05. These big premiums, and the premium of May over April, will continue to hurt the exchange-traded funds and notes that have long VIX exposure, as the short-dated ones--such as the VXX, TVIX, and UVXY--are based on those front-month futures with a daily roll. |
|
|
|
Post by ask2lern on Mar 21, 2012 6:41:07 GMT -5
From www.optionmonster.com ................GLTA Puts surge in volatility fund at new lowThe iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures exchange-traded note collapsed to an all-time low yesterday as puts topped its option volume. The VXX was down 4.61 percent to close at $19.32, even as the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) was higher on the day. The VXX is based off the two nearest-month VIX futures, not the spot index reading, and has a daily roll. The front-month March VIX futures were up 2.9 percent to close at 16, but they settle this morning. (See related story) This means that the VXX is essentially entirely in the April VIX futures, which were down 4 percent to 19.20 yesterday. That is still a huge premium, and the VIX futures remain in steep contango with increasing premiums going out in time. The VXX hit a 52-week high of $59.18 in October, but today's move pushed it back below the previous lows from last July. Just shy of 330,000 VXX options traded yesterday--possibly a new record--compared with a daily average of 72,500 in the last month. Two of the three largest prints in the VIX options came in one spread spread. A trader bought 13,359 April 19 puts for the ask price of $0.61, under the previous open interest of 42,731, optionMONSTER's Depth Charge shows. At the same time, he or she sold the same number of April 16 puts for $0.15. That volume was more than the previous open interest, so it was a new opening position. This could be a trader rolling a short put position lower, but it looks more like an outright put spread that would profit with the VXX trading to or below $16 in the next month. Given the premiums in the futures, and that negative roll yield, the VIX would probably not even have to move lower for that goal to be reached. |
|
|
|
Post by ask2lern on Mar 21, 2012 6:42:37 GMT -5
Nick Timiraos þ @nicktimiraos
MBA: Mortgage rates jumped to 4.19% last week, from 4.06%, to the highest level so far this year. Mortgage applications drop by 7.4%.
|
|
|
|
Post by herceg1967 on Mar 21, 2012 6:43:34 GMT -5
Great info as always Ask..............Exalt to start the morning for you.................
|
|
|
|
Post by ask2lern on Mar 21, 2012 7:13:58 GMT -5
redliontrader þ @redliontrader Ten day cycles bearish makes us more comfortable short $study bit.ly/GHlRlDredliontrader þ @redliontrader Bears put one on the bulls, our ten day cycle is now bearish $study bit.ly/GGDNAj |
|
|
|
Post by Clinton SPX on Mar 21, 2012 8:55:19 GMT -5
yesterdays bottom was right about now
|
|
|
|
Post by Clinton SPX on Mar 21, 2012 9:03:33 GMT -5
yen buying now
|
|
|
|
Post by Clinton SPX on Mar 21, 2012 9:09:35 GMT -5
gold likes the yen buying
|
|
|
|
Post by Clinton SPX on Mar 21, 2012 9:15:13 GMT -5
Hell yas
I been waiting for this yen rally
gimme more
look at gold and silver
|
|
|
|
Post by Clinton SPX on Mar 21, 2012 9:43:47 GMT -5
BBL
GL Traders
|
|
|
|
Post by Clinton SPX on Mar 21, 2012 10:37:21 GMT -5
watch VGZ today
I wish I still owned some
|
|
|
|
Post by Clinton SPX on Mar 21, 2012 12:19:45 GMT -5
glad Im buying shit with dividends
this market seems stuck
no one wants to sell or buy
|
|
|
|
Post by novice08 on Mar 21, 2012 12:20:08 GMT -5
Interesting that miners are starting to move up w/gold & silver down to flat.
|
|
|
|
Post by jack on Mar 21, 2012 12:22:53 GMT -5
Interesting that miners are starting to move up w/gold & silver down to flat. Coulda fooled ME (CNL is down but that's good cos I'm buying more). |
|
|
|
Post by jack on Mar 21, 2012 12:29:52 GMT -5
glad Im buying shit with dividends this market seems stuck no one wants to sell or buy Process of rolling over some might say.... |
|
|
|
Post by Clinton SPX on Mar 21, 2012 12:49:58 GMT -5
bulls back from lunch
Time to squeeze some bears
|
|
|
|
Post by Clinton SPX on Mar 21, 2012 12:50:43 GMT -5
AAPL lead the way
|
|
|
|
Post by Clinton SPX on Mar 21, 2012 12:51:56 GMT -5
my market mover springs to life bullish
weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
|
|
|
|
Post by Clinton SPX on Mar 21, 2012 13:58:59 GMT -5
added to my oil
|
|
|
|
Post by Clinton SPX on Mar 21, 2012 13:59:33 GMT -5
i think we get a 3 oclock buy program
|
|
|
|
Post by jack on Mar 21, 2012 14:12:06 GMT -5
i think we get a 3 oclock buy program We have lift-off! |
|
|
|
Post by jack on Mar 21, 2012 14:14:14 GMT -5
Ooops - did the Bernank or Timmy just fart?
|
|
|
|
Post by Clinton SPX on Mar 21, 2012 15:02:07 GMT -5
man this market is boring
|
|
|
|
Post by herceg1967 on Mar 21, 2012 16:28:42 GMT -5
No Market For Reasonable People
March 21, 2012 | 11 comments | includes: AMZN, GAZ, SHLD, TVIX
As the sessions go by, it's becoming more and more obvious that this market will not allow for much rationality, at least not if someone tries to short some rationality into something.
For certain, the never ending Central Bank support is part of the reason why things are going out of control and into loony land. When the market was already quite hot back in January, the FED thought it reasonable to say that it wouldn't move rates until 2014. Then in February we had the ECB doing the LTRO2. And just two weeks ago, when again the market tried to put on a small correction, the FED brought out its mouthpiece on the WSJ saying that it would consider a "sterilized" QE3 (which is about the same as any QE, since much of the printed money always ends up in the FED being remunerated at 0.25%).
Given this backdrop, the market managed to get into a state where ANY trade that requires a short sell is bound to be stressful, no matter how irrational the long side is. The examples keep piling up and go to extremes:
The S&P500 stock with the best performance, up 152.8% year-to-date, trading at 40x EV/EBITDA on an industry that's lucky to do 8x - Wal-Mart (WMT) is at 7.3x - is Sears (SHLD), even as it seemingly races into never-ending losses and possible bankruptcy while selling profitable stores;
Amazon.com (AMZN) manages to miss every guidance it gives, has earnings falling into a hole and is earning about the same as it earned back in 2004, yet, that's the large cap with the highest valuation (multiple-wise) in the market, trading at a forward 2012 P/E of 150x;
There are ETFs and ETNs trading well beyond any reasonable level, so distant are they from their intrinsic values, yet if you short any of them you get clobbered. This goes to the point where one sees an ETN like VelocityShares Daily 2x VIX ST ETN (TVIX) trading at a 30% premium to intrinsic value, and has to say "wait," because it will probably trade at a higher premium in spite of it being valued at around $615 million. No surprise, it then manages to trade at a 61% premium;
But a 61% premium is not as crazy as it gets. The iPath Dow Jones UBS Natural Gas ETN (GAZ) managed to go as high as a 155% premium. If you had an arbitrage position on it, shall we say at a 100% premium, you'd be sweating bullets quickly, especially because even if you were just short calls, they'd keep getting exercised months ahead of their maturity.
The examples keep coming; it's a brutal and irrational market out there. Even Apple (AAPL), a reasonable stock to buy given the not-too-demanding valuation it had not long ago, trades in an unnatural hyperbolic fashion - and that's when you start hearing everyone, even thousands of miles from the U.S. and completely unfamiliar with the markets, saying how good an investment Apple is, and how they bought so much and are making so much money.
Perhaps this is going according to plan, perhaps a market that behaves like this was just what the FED and the ECB wanted all along, a market where two losing days in a row seems an anomaly. But it sure feels weird.
Conclusion
For now, all that can be done is to take the opportunities the market gives, especially the arbitrages mentioned, and do so with a very tight risk control - meaning, using positions that can withstand even 100% moves against them. And wait. This too shall pass.
|
|
