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Post by brosin on Oct 28, 2011 10:06:40 GMT -5
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Post by theMIST on Oct 28, 2011 10:09:42 GMT -5
We're only upto VII ?! ;D
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Post by timber on Oct 28, 2011 10:10:57 GMT -5
i dont know but i want to put more money in this thing
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Post by metheny on Oct 28, 2011 10:11:11 GMT -5
I'm thinking of fighting the rise in JRCC here... somebody hold me back!
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Post by brosin on Oct 28, 2011 10:14:29 GMT -5
We're only upto VII ?! ;D LOL "only!?" It's turning into the Fast and the Furious movie series here! But yep, can only release at the best times! Otherwise they may lose effectiveness. I think I have a very high batting avg on the 7! ;D |
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Post by maxi on Oct 28, 2011 11:02:10 GMT -5
Any generous souls out there that could sum up where's the drop for me? My ability to change pages here is severely curtailed right now.
And I really have no idea what the implications of this thread are... Help!
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Post by metheny on Oct 28, 2011 11:21:49 GMT -5
I'm thinking nobody has any idea what's going on....
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Post by metheny on Oct 28, 2011 11:33:49 GMT -5
I didn't check all the links, I think they are just saying that the people selling or shorting this month have been crushed, and Mist and Timber think that this will continue.
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Post by brosin on Oct 28, 2011 11:35:44 GMT -5
Any generous souls out there that could sum up where's the drop for me? My ability to change pages here is severely curtailed right now. And I really have no idea what the implications of this thread are... Help! Hi Maxi - I have typically posted these when the market is appearing to look overbought but doesn't stop going up even when no one expects it to keep going. And PS, sorry I will be replying to your PM from yesterday here sometime today - have been a little busy yesterday and wanted to give you a more detailed response than I had time for after reading it |
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Post by theMIST on Oct 28, 2011 11:41:44 GMT -5
Just need to set the record straight ;D
I see this bull move continuing a lot higher over the longer term but it won't be without its pullbacks/consolidation along the way. I do agree with Brosin's "Where's the Drop VII?" thread in that I don't see a large drop coming (hard reversal).
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Post by brosin on Oct 28, 2011 12:33:03 GMT -5
Taken one step further (the point of this thread), I personally don't see ANY drop coming in the next 1-2 days until we are substantially (at least a couple %) higher. And even then, I don't think the drop will bring us back to levels any lower than we are now. In other words, pain will continue for bears with little chance of escaping with minimized damage.
That's typically what this thread implies - I'm not just talking about today where the market will drop a ton on Monday or anything.
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Post by maxi on Oct 28, 2011 12:40:19 GMT -5
Yes I agree with that. There will not be any huge yummy drop to get in on I don't think. But all my indicators say over bought. I am not asking for a huge amount just not here. Especially since this could really be window dressing.... Cramer says that funds are under exposed and will be buying to look good. I can see that....
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Post by erxtrader on Oct 28, 2011 12:46:20 GMT -5
But all my indicators say over bought. .... Indicators always say overbought/oversold when the market makes a significant move. They don't mean anything yet. Later, they may. |
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Post by maxi on Oct 28, 2011 13:03:07 GMT -5
Okay then explain why stock prices go up and down? HAL had a great beat on earnings it hit 54 then it went down to 27. That was SENTIMENT not fact. Is HAL still worth 54? 44? 39? 27?
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Post by brosin on Oct 28, 2011 13:25:28 GMT -5
But all my indicators say over bought. That's kind of my point though - most of the time, the market will flush out an overbought condition by correcting through price. At certain periods though, and especially coming off large tops and large bottoms, the market can stay overbought or oversold far longer than people expect, and it also tends to not benevolently let people in (in this case, longs wanting cheaper prices) or out (in this case, shorts wanting out at lower prices). At alot of those times, the market flushes out the overbought/oversold conditions with time instead of price (sideways movement for a short time to let indicators catch up before continuing the move in the same direction.. i.e. little if any retracement). That's my point here - I had predicted early on that the market was going to get "straight-liney" for the bulls, but even now I don't think that's over |
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Post by maxi on Oct 28, 2011 13:27:48 GMT -5
Yah I get what u are saying. But I remain skeptical for now. If we start having an up week next week with volume and conviction I will give in.
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Post by brosin on Oct 28, 2011 13:40:06 GMT -5
Yeah I don't know if you want to give in or not.
I'm definitely not implying that people should be starting to buy here at 1280/1290. I'm more posting this for the bears who are thinking of adding or initializing positions and the bulls who may be wanting to sell. I don't think we're quite there yet and see no reason to rush in or out. I think patience is the name of the game both ways right here
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Post by theMIST on Oct 28, 2011 13:44:47 GMT -5
Brosin, do you still think this run is like 4/08 - 5/08 which would imply being in the double dip camp?? ala Deja Vu
Personally, this run reminds me of the QE2 run.
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Post by brosin on Oct 28, 2011 14:20:13 GMT -5
Brosin, do you still think this run is like 4/08 - 5/08 which would imply being in the double dip camp?? ala Deja Vu Personally, this run reminds me of the QE2 run. Yeah - for now I'm still aligned with the double dip camp. Earnings and GDP is swaying me, but my odds of recession are still around 60/40 or 55/45. Far cry from the Spring and early Summer this year when I would've put it at 80/20 or 90/10. Still haven't seen improvement in lending conditions that I feel is imperative for sustainable economic growth. That's one of the only remaining sticking points for me though, so I've definitely got my eyes on the exit doors of the double dip camp. Just haven't started heading towards it just yet |
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Post by ijuswanna on Oct 28, 2011 14:32:58 GMT -5
Boring day so far..
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Post by theMIST on Oct 28, 2011 14:33:44 GMT -5
Come on over Brosin! ;D Come hangout with us. Come over and say hello to Ben and Warren!  |
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Post by brosin on Oct 31, 2011 12:45:01 GMT -5
To be fair, I think today's drop makes this a poor call in general. I did not anticipate what I see as a benevolent pullback.
I did see the Yen action which gave the dollar strength and hit the commodity trade though, so it'll be interesting to see if any of that can really continue for more than a day or two here.
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Post by Clinton SPX on Oct 31, 2011 12:57:00 GMT -5
I think Japan has put a ceiling on this market. we now know where they kill the yen.
upside is limited now, downside isnt
I think some bulls will start to jump ship
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Post by brosin on Oct 31, 2011 16:29:14 GMT -5
I think Japan has put a ceiling on this market. we now know where they kill the yen. upside is limited now, downside isnt I think some bulls will start to jump ship How is Japan printing money and joining in the QE fight putting a ceiling on the market? If anything I think it's putting a floor under it as all the Central Banks are determined to create inflation one way or another, even if it means destroying all currencies to do it. |
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Post by Clinton SPX on Oct 31, 2011 16:30:50 GMT -5
Come on Brosin, really?
did you see what the market did today when Japan intervened?
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Post by Clinton SPX on Oct 31, 2011 16:31:51 GMT -5
when Japan intervenes THEIR exporters rally everything else goes DOWN
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Post by Clinton SPX on Oct 31, 2011 16:36:16 GMT -5
and the time before dow was -400
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Post by brintcorb on Oct 31, 2011 21:34:14 GMT -5
I think Japan has put a ceiling on this market. we now know where they kill the yen. upside is limited now, downside isnt I think some bulls will start to jump ship wow. great call. .. and the beat goes on: this is a message to Ben. If you think your going to rally your markets by dropping the dollar, we will counter you. Japan May Ready Sustained Yen Intervention Q By Aki Ito and Toru Fujioka - Oct 31, 2011 9:19 PM ET Japan’s government signaled it is prepared for sustained intervention to ward off speculators from yen purchases after currency appreciation forced companies from Panasonic Corp. (6752) to Honda Motor Co. to lower earnings forecasts. Finance Minister Jun Azumi said in Tokyo he will “continue to intervene until I am satisfied,” after yen sales yesterday that Credit Suisse Group AG analysts estimated may have exceeded $50 billion. The intervention was the first since August, when Japan spent 4.51 trillion yen ($57 billion) seeking to stem the currency’s surge to a postwar high against the dollar. |
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