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Post by jack on Feb 21, 2011 13:50:09 GMT -5
Awesome work Actuary! Exalt!  What HE SAID!!! And another "Exalt", Dave!!! |
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Post by brosin on Feb 21, 2011 14:12:31 GMT -5
Ditto, thanks Dave!
Also, I added the new POMO schedule to our calendar as I had forgotten to do that after they released the next one. Sorry hope you don't think I'm trying to step on your toes! Keep up the great work here - I have yet to see a better POMO analysis anywhere than the one you do here.
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Post by actuarynomore on Feb 22, 2011 11:50:50 GMT -5
$7.24B Accepted out of $8.0B Maximum Available $22.298B Submitted There is really nothing noteworthy about this Release from prior releases so far - It's not the most aggressive nor is it the most in demand as measured by the amount Submitted. That being said, for all days with POMO since August 17th (85), there are only 5 days where the SPX dropped more than where we are currently the greatest being January 28th when the SPX dropped 1.79%.    |
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Post by actuarynomore on Feb 23, 2011 17:02:01 GMT -5
$1.967B accepted out of $2.5B maximum available - No great shakes as we discussed earlier today in the PPT. $6.0B max available tomorrow - $8.0B Friday Following is a chart I haven't posted in awhile and this is what I see: * Last 2 days have been greatest down in SPX since POMO started in earnest on November 12th -  * FFR doesn't look like it will be going up anytime soon which I feel is a tell as to where the market s/b vs where it is -  * Gold is surging because of turmoil in ME (Clint?) -  * Dollar down along with market - Question to ponder - Amount of POMO available under current release (#7) is smaller than last 3 releases - Is lower anticipated POMO having a negative impact on the Market?  |
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Post by jack on Feb 23, 2011 17:14:12 GMT -5
For some reason Dave, I REALLY like that part about "gold surging"!!!
Heh heh heh...
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Post by actuarynomore on Feb 28, 2011 12:00:28 GMT -5
We are 11 out of 18 POMO days into Release 7 and this I know for certain: * 90.2% of maximum available POMO has been accepted ($59.5B out of $66.0B) * At this point, Releases 4, 5, and 6 had acceptance ratios of 89.2%, 85.6% and 94.5% respectively * While Releases 4, 5 and 6 all exceeded $100B, Release 7 may not exceed $97.0B at the current acceptance rate * As you know from earlier posts (as well as links provided by Bros), Release 7 has 7 straight POMO days left after today with POMO Lite days Tuesday and Friday of this week One other thing that is unique about this Release is that it has the highest Submitted-to-Accepted Ratio (4.41) than all previous Releases and based on analysis reported in Zero Hedge, a higher SA ratio would suggest a more fragile market - All analysis I have done doesn't support this correlation. Lastly, there is more speculation as to the possible end-in-sight on POMO and even Mr. Topstep had something to say about it on Friday - mrtopstep.com/2011/02/18/danny-riley-on-end-of-pomo-what-does-that-mean-for-sp-rally/May your day be filled with POMO MOJO -    |
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Post by actuarynomore on Mar 4, 2011 12:30:27 GMT -5
After today, POMO Release 7 ends next Wednesday with 3 straight POMO days of $7B, $8B and $7B maximum available respectively. By next Wednesday, total QE2 POMO since November will hit approximately $415B leaving another $185B until the total anticipated QE2 $600B is delivered. Release 8 will be announced next Thursday, March 10th at 2:00pm ET. All QE2 Releases (4, 5, 6 and 7) have spanned 20 trading days with 2 non-POMO days. Therefore, we should anticipate either: * 3 more Releases that on average will deliver $62B per Release ending around June 11 * 2 more Releases that on average will deliver $92B per Release ending around May 11 Hmmmmm...  |
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Post by jack on Mar 4, 2011 12:49:49 GMT -5
Sh_t Dave! It looks like he's reading "Technical Analysis of Stock Trends" by Edwards & Mcgee!
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz...
Exalt!
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Post by actuarynomore on Mar 7, 2011 9:22:04 GMT -5
POMO Range today - $5.0B to $7.0B This will be the 5th out of 6 POMO days during Release 7 with a range of 5 to 7 and on the previous 4 days, the amount accepted has been virtually constant at $6.689B. Tuesday (6 to 8) and Wednesday (5 to 7) mark the end of Release 7. Release 8 will be announced Thursday at 2ET.    |
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Post by brosin on Mar 7, 2011 11:38:55 GMT -5
Thanks Dave!
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Post by actuarynomore on Mar 9, 2011 12:35:42 GMT -5
The fourth release of QE2 (Release 7 since I have been tracking) ended today with $6.690B out of $7.0B maximum available being pumped into the market. So this is what I can say about QE2 and the 4 releases to date as it relates to max available, accepted, submitted at auction, accepted/max available and submitted to actual ratios: * Release 4 - $119.5B - $106.3B - $415.0B - 88.95% - 3.90 * Release 5 - $119.5B - $102.1B - $290.0B - 85.42% - 2.84 * Release 6 - $119.5B - $112.3B - $389.3B - 94.00% - 3.47 * Release 7 - $107.5B - $97.80B - $422.7B - 90.98% - 4.32I've highlighted the submitted to actual ratio of Release 7 because (even though I couldn't verify this with my data), a study posted by zerohedge suggested that a higher S/A ratio correlates to a weaker versus stronger market. With a $600.0B target under QE2, that means we have either: * $181.5B left if the target is based on actual amount funded; or * $134.0B left if the target is based on maximum available Release 8 will be announced tomorrow at 2pm ET.  |
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Post by actuarynomore on Mar 10, 2011 14:03:17 GMT -5
Release 8 - $102.0B over 18 POMO Days
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Post by brosin on Mar 10, 2011 19:25:10 GMT -5
added the new schedule to the Fastopia calendar
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Post by actuarynomore on Mar 14, 2011 10:40:38 GMT -5
Todays POMO - $7.560B out of $8.5B maximum available - $24.583B submitted at auction Following is a new chart that shows POMO days (past and future) under Release 5 of QE2...  |
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Post by actuarynomore on Mar 15, 2011 8:33:21 GMT -5
Remember, NO POMO TODAY which will be followed by 12 staight POMO days running from the 16th through the 31st - Good trading...  |
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Post by actuarynomore on Mar 16, 2011 12:05:37 GMT -5
POMO Today - $6.58B out of $7.5B max available with $26.455B submitted at auction I have erred in previous posts about current POMO payments - I thought they were exclusively QE2 payments which they are not - Each payment is comprised of QE2 plus "purchases associated with principal payments from agency debt and agency MBS expected to be received between date1 and date2..." What does this mean... It is expected that QE2 will pump $600B into the market - Through the first 4 releases of QE2, $310B has already been pumped in. Therefore, we should anticipate an additional $290B of QE2 and $88B of principal repayments will be pumped into the market over the next 4 POMO releases with the last QE2 POMO payment date around July 11, 2011.   |
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Post by actuarynomore on Mar 17, 2011 8:08:10 GMT -5
Today is second of 12 straight POMO days with $7.50B MA. Tomorrow is a POMO-Lite day with $2.0B MA. Good luck to all on St. Patty's Day while Benny O'Bernank doles out his gold coins...  |
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Post by actuarynomore on Mar 17, 2011 14:22:54 GMT -5
$6.989B out of $7.5B MA and as you can see from the chart below, the highest Accepted to Max Available Ratio and the most heavily bid of QE2 Release 5. Tomorrow and Monday are both POMO-Lite days...  |
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Post by brosin on Mar 17, 2011 18:05:26 GMT -5
Extra shorting power since the market was extra up today? ;D
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Post by actuarynomore on Mar 18, 2011 10:22:10 GMT -5
$1.568B accepted out of $2.0B max avail with $5.719B submitted at auction - Low Acc/MA and S/Acc ratios - Typical for POMO-Lite days. Monday is another POMO-Lite day which will be followed up by 4 straight major-POMO days...  |
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Post by actuarynomore on Mar 22, 2011 11:04:45 GMT -5
$7.560B accepted out of $8.5B max available with $27.673B submitted at auction. Bottom-line - 5th Release of QE2 very modest as if Fed believes lower pumping is ok or political pressure is too great - dunno... POMO continues through this week with $8.5B, $7.5B and $6.0B max available for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday respectively.  |
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Post by actuarynomore on Mar 23, 2011 14:21:00 GMT -5
Just like yesterday, $7.560B accepted out of $8.5B max available but with $30.766B submitted at auction. Out of 5 Releases under QE2, this Release is one of the least accepted and bid at auction. Nothing but blue skies ahead...  |
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Post by actuarynomore on Mar 25, 2011 10:33:25 GMT -5
$5.235B accepted out of $6.0B maximum available results in average A/MA ratio. However, with $38,026 submitted at auction, this POMO day produces the highest ever (under QE2) submitted to accepted ratio of 7.26 versus the previous high of 6.97. As I have reported previously, there are some who believe that a high POMO S/A ratio portends an imminent market drop that afternoon - My analysis so far hasn't supported that theory but Caveat Emptor...   |
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Post by actuarynomore on Mar 29, 2011 8:31:44 GMT -5
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Post by brosin on Apr 4, 2011 21:23:06 GMT -5
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Post by actuarynomore on Apr 5, 2011 11:32:54 GMT -5
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Post by natsalilfly on Apr 5, 2011 11:52:02 GMT -5
Looks like the choice was double dip & feel it now, or double down on POMO and kick the can down the road.
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Post by actuarynomore on Apr 6, 2011 10:41:06 GMT -5
Hey Jack - I know you were being sarcastic but today was a POMO-Lite which will be followed by 2 more POMO days (Thursday and Monday) under Release 5 of QE2 - See chart below. Based on what I have read, I believe there will be 3 more Releases under QE2 averaging $102B ($80B of POMO and $22B other) ending on or around May 11, June 11 and July 11 respectively... 
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Post by actuarynomore on Apr 11, 2011 8:29:11 GMT -5
Last POMO day of Release 5 (out of potentially 8) of QE2 - Range expected to be $6.5B to $8.5B. Next Release to be announced tomorrow at 2:00pm EDT. Decided to post as DM says one of my prettier charts - Gold through the roof - Dollar through the floor - FFR following - SPX, is it a coin flip - We shall see...  |
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Post by jack on Apr 11, 2011 8:33:50 GMT -5
Last POMO day of Release 5 (out of potentially 8) of QE2 - Range expected to be $6.5B to $8.5B. Next Release to be announced tomorrow at 2:00pm EDT. Decided to post as DM says one of my prettier charts - Gold through the roof - Dollar through the floor - FFR following - SPX, is it a coin flip - We shall see... I'm glad that's NOT my EKG - Exalt! |
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