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Post by novice08 on Jan 28, 2011 17:52:24 GMT -5
Great work, thanks so much. Very
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Post by actuarynomore on Jan 28, 2011 18:19:29 GMT -5
In the end, what happens to all the leftover submitted to accepted monies? Do they take the "leftovers" and pool them all together and have one last release that no one has thought about yet? I don't think so Rex - I believe once the morning auction is completed, it starts anew for the next POMO day. BTW, while the amount submitted/accepted ratio yesterday was 5.80 ($33.56/$6), today it was 2.42 ($20.2/$8.36) and based on what happened to the market on each day, it blows to hell the independent study results that suggested there is any correlation between this ratio and the market ROR for the day.
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Post by actuarynomore on Jan 31, 2011 9:31:22 GMT -5
Today kicks off 8 straight days of POMO ending next Wednesday, 2/9 which marks the end of POMO Release 6.
The POMO max available this week (including 2 POMO-lite days) are as follows: * $8.0B * $2.0B * $2.5B * $9.0B * $8.0B
BTW - Since POMO started in earnest (53 trading days ago), SPX has seen: * 32 Up Days with an average daily ROR of .495% * 21 Down Days with an average daily ROR of -.513%
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Post by abdogman on Jan 31, 2011 9:54:25 GMT -5
Thx Actuary........Exalt!!!
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Post by Clinton SPX on Jan 31, 2011 10:56:58 GMT -5
11 o clock time for pomo to kick in
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Post by rex on Jan 31, 2011 11:01:17 GMT -5
7 out of the last 9 days the market has gone down a bit starting at 11:00.
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Post by Clinton SPX on Jan 31, 2011 11:02:52 GMT -5
Ah, so we're over due then for a 11 oclock rally
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Post by Clinton SPX on Jan 31, 2011 11:06:16 GMT -5
I think were gonna see front running first of the month money today
SPY on first day of the month Jan 3 Green Dec 1 Green w gap up Nov 1 Green Oct 1 Green w gap up Sept 1 Green w gap up
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Post by actuarynomore on Jan 31, 2011 11:21:39 GMT -5
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Post by Clinton SPX on Jan 31, 2011 11:23:36 GMT -5
Ya, I think we gonna see short covering all day
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Post by Clinton SPX on Jan 31, 2011 11:28:04 GMT -5
QLD and XLF drifting slowly up
a good sign for bulls
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Post by Clinton SPX on Jan 31, 2011 12:09:14 GMT -5
here comes the squeeze
weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
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Post by brosin on Jan 31, 2011 12:24:26 GMT -5
Clinton I dunno the last time I saw you so wishful on the market!
Tape watching since the second futures open - bulls seem nervous to me. Which is a new thing for this market - been quite awhile... a sign of things to come I'm sure
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Post by Clinton SPX on Jan 31, 2011 12:26:45 GMT -5
I made a bold prediction on the market and Im sure you bears will feed me mucho shiite if Im wrong.
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Post by jack on Jan 31, 2011 12:29:31 GMT -5
I made a bold prediction on the market and Im sure you bears will feed me mucho shiite if Im wrong. No Clint - they'll just feed you broccoli.
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Post by actuarynomore on Feb 1, 2011 18:06:15 GMT -5
As I mentioned the other day, today was a POMO-Lite day as tomorrow will be ($1.735B accepted out of $2.0B today - $2.5B max available tomorrow). The Fed has accepted 94.3% of the maximum POMO available ($75.9B vs $80.5B) through 12 POMO days of Release 6 - This percentage was 89.4% and 85.7% respectively for Releases 4 and 5. I have posted 2 charts below that show the SPX daily ROR on POMO Days where: * The first chart is sorted by the amount of POMO * The second chart is sorted by the actual daily SPX ROR As requested by my dear friend Jack, what these results show is that while the Market is being positively influenced by POMO (30 out of 48 POMO days have a positive ROR), the SPX ROR doesn't seem to be influenced by the amount of POMO.Average POMO/SPX ROR for: * 18 Negative Days - $5.86B and (.55)% * 30 Positive Days - $5.96B and .52%
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Post by actuarynomore on Feb 1, 2011 18:24:14 GMT -5
And finally, I have posted below a chart showing the cummulative ROR since December 31, 2009 of SPX, GLD and UUP mapped against the FFR and daily POMO amounts. To me, it again shows the: * Negative correlation between the SPX and Dollar * A more direct correlation between Gold and the Dollar since POMO Major started (mid-November) * An FFR that I don't believe will go up anytime soon inspite of the Market * A Market that is definitely being supported by POMO My opinions all and as all of you know, everyone is entitled to their own stupid opinion including myself...Time for a break!!!
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Post by actuarynomore on Feb 3, 2011 11:34:02 GMT -5
Largest single, daily POMO Amount/Ratio ever!!! $8.870B Accepted out of $9.0B Maximum Available - 98.56% Current Release through 14 POMO Dates - 94.57% A/MA versus 89.29% and 84.80% for Releases 4 and 5 respectively!!! As suggested earlier by Clinton, the Fed is maximizing it's POMO efforts to keep this Market pumped up. I expect when the new POMO Release is published next week that the maximum available will be higher than the $119.5B set for Releases 4, 5 and 6 (current).
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Post by actuarynomore on Feb 4, 2011 11:58:02 GMT -5
$7.272B Accepted out of Maximum Available $8.0B - 90.9% - Not very aggressive. FWIW, I pulled the following from Tyler Durden and folks regarding how some folks believe POMO has positively impacted the SPX... Visualizing A POMO Market: How The Fed Added 400 Points To The S&P Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/18/2010 17:43 -0500Lately, it appears, it has gotten trendy to bash the New York Fed's Permanent Open Market Operations (POMO), especially by various self-appointed godfathers of the blogosphere. The logic goes, or so we interpret the thinking, that any given POMO is nothing but yet another component of the various signals that enter into the "perfectly efficient market" and the Fed's intervention is something that is perfectly acceptable, should be a tradeable event, and is nothing of real significance (and, of course, the original narrative would come wrapped in 10 paragraphs or so of fluff). Whatever. Below, in collaboration with John Lohman, we show what the market would look like without POMO, versus a market that is predicated exclusively on FRBNY interventions. The bottom line: starting with the first POMO in 2005, when the S&P was at 1,200 and continuing through today, the broader market index would have been at just over 800 if performance from POMO days was excluded. Alternatively, purely POMO days would have had the effect of doubling the stock market in the past 5 years. We hope readers can decide on their own whether Fed intervention in this case implies causation.
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Post by actuarynomore on Feb 9, 2011 16:44:31 GMT -5
OK - POMO Release 6 Is Complete and tomorrow we learn what Release 7 will be - Due to how successfully POMO Releases 4, 5 and 6 have been at propping up the Market, I am quite confident that Release 7 will look like the following: * It'll span 20 Trading Days of which 18 (2) will be POMO (Non-POMO) days * There will be $88.5B minimum available * There will be $119.5B maximum available And, as a prediction, there is no reason to believe that the Fed will be accepting (PUMPING INTO THE MARKET) anyting less than $113B during Release 7!!! FWIW, I have posted below my POMO Chart which shows how consistent the last 3 POMOs (Releases 4, 5 and 6) have been - Notice the light green (blue) area is smaller (larger) for Release 6 than for 4 and 5 - That shows how much more aggressive the Fed was in terms of maximising the amount of POMO used versus the maximum available.
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Post by actuarynomore on Feb 10, 2011 16:50:09 GMT -5
As we all expected, under Release 7, there are 18 (2) POMO (Non-POMO) days over the next 20 trading days but, with a maximum available that is actually $12.0 Billion lower than the $119.5 Billion maximum available that was set for Releases 4, 5 and 6. Under the previous releases, there were six days where $7 to $9 Billion were available that have been replaced by 6 days where $5 to $7 Billion are available. I am surprised that we will see less POMO under Release 7 and am wondering if it's indicative of Congress taking a look under the Fed-Hood or the disgust that the market has for the most expensive "BLOW-JOB" ever known to man!!!Anyway, because of how similar Releases 4, 5 and 6 were, I will be comparing 6 to 7 in my chart below as we march towards March 9 - This way, you'll be able to see the future POMO more clearly on the horizontal axis as well as better guage the minimum/maximum amount of POMO available each day.
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Post by actuarynomore on Feb 10, 2011 17:24:53 GMT -5
One more chart that I wanted to post is the one that compares the compound ROR for SPX, GLD and UUP since June 1, 2010 along with POMO (Release 4 through the end of projected Release 7) and the FFR. I was hoping A2L or someone might be able to comment as to why they think the Dollar and Gold seem to be more directly correlated now than they were prior to when POMO was significantly accelerated mid-November, 2010 - Thanks in advance anyone. Also, back to ongoing communications with Bros regarding the FFR, I absolutely believe that the current FFR trend could be a barometer as to the overall health of the market and that we will continue to see the FFR at current and lower levels until everything just blows up. Trading today is knda like that feeling you got when you were a kid when you were about to light up a fire cracker - You put your money in (light the fire cracker) and run like hell so you don't get your fingers blown off - It's so exhilerating!!!
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Post by rex on Feb 10, 2011 17:43:56 GMT -5
Act., thx for the update. I simply think double dip was still on the table last last summer which caused gold to rise because people didn't understand at the time the effect POMO would have on equities. After a couple months, the allure of gold calmed down after everyone could see what was happening to the markets from POMO. So, I'm not sure it's a function of gold/dollar, but more a function of gold/US markets.
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Post by jack on Feb 10, 2011 17:44:41 GMT -5
Dave - A2L was going on a cruise starting today or tomorrow and will be gone for a few wks...you might want to PM the chart for his action upon return.
Cheers, J
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Post by actuarynomore on Feb 10, 2011 18:13:49 GMT -5
Dave - A2L was going on a cruise starting today or tomorrow and will be gone for a few wks...you might want to PM the chart for his action upon return. Cheers, J I ABSOLUTELY WILL NOT BOTHER ANYONE JUST ABOUT TO GO ON A CRUISE TO DIDDLE WITH MY BABBLE - thx as always Jack - You da Man!!!
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Post by actuarynomore on Feb 10, 2011 18:18:32 GMT -5
Act., thx for the update. I simply think double dip was still on the table last last summer which caused gold to rise because people didn't understand at the time the effect POMO would have on equities. After a couple months, the allure of gold calmed down after everyone could see what was happening to the markets from POMO. So, I'm not sure it's a function of gold/dollar, but more a function of gold/US markets. Hey Rex - Thanks for the response but it suggests that the Dollar and Gold s/b running in sync as they are since major-POMO appeared which doesn't seem intuitive to me - Or am I missing something?
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Post by walnut on Feb 10, 2011 22:19:01 GMT -5
Whew! that was a lot to try to digest and catch up on. really good stuff.
I might have missed seeing it but, POMO Release 6 just finished up I guess, what is the calendar now? Anything?
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Post by actuarynomore on Feb 10, 2011 22:31:32 GMT -5
Bros has a link posted in the index or you could look at the chart above that shows Release 7 - Look at the Black/Red bar chart and the dates below - Runs from 2/11 through 3/9...
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Post by actuarynomore on Feb 21, 2011 13:32:44 GMT -5
FWIW - While the market is taking a holiday today, tomorrow marks the first of 12 STRAIGHT DAYS OF POMO ending on March 9 with $107,500,000,000 maximum available!!! 1400, here we come -
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Post by theMIST on Feb 21, 2011 13:40:42 GMT -5
Awesome work Actuary! Exalt!
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