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Post by brosin on Aug 8, 2011 13:06:29 GMT -5
The long awaited 1130/50 churn area has fully arrived!
Added to my fresh new FAZ short at $75.90
(first entry this am was $70.60) - have gone half in. Expecting to see some strength this week to shake some bears off this freight train
As mentioned I'm playing this as a 5-10% market bounce from this area to take us back to around 1200 SPX or so.
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Post by timber on Aug 8, 2011 13:08:03 GMT -5
good luck broin...tomorrow will be a good day i hope
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Post by brosin on Aug 8, 2011 13:34:36 GMT -5
Now I can't find any more shares available
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Post by brosin on Aug 11, 2011 14:42:15 GMT -5
The long awaited 1130/50 churn area has fully arrived! Added to my fresh new FAZ short at $75.90 (first entry this am was $70.60) - have gone half in. Expecting to see some strength this week to shake some bears off this freight train As mentioned I'm playing this as a 5-10% market bounce from this area to take us back to around 1200 SPX or so. there's your 1122 comm just added some FAZ short $75.. could've waited another couple bucks too maybe Checked for some more FAZ shares to add a final bullet to my short position, but none are available. (just posted it in PPDT as well, but bought a couple FAS long shares instead $13.56) Between these 4 entries, has played out pretty well. I think there's still more to go, but covered 1/3 of the FAZ short here at $56.45... Holding the rest, may cover more today if we surge a little further into the close |
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Post by maxi on Aug 11, 2011 14:44:38 GMT -5
15 more minutes of straight up....  |
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Post by brosin on Aug 12, 2011 14:42:12 GMT -5
Re-added my FAZ short shares that I covered yesterday
Got em at $61.50.. Thinking very strong up week is on tap
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Post by erxtrader on Aug 12, 2011 15:29:28 GMT -5
The EU leaders meet on Tuesday.
Mr. Volatility may give us a visit, along with his pet grizzly.
The European debt problem is not over.
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Post by brosin on Aug 12, 2011 15:33:40 GMT -5
Of course it's not over. But that's why we go higher for now since everyone is (finally) fully prepared for it. Market can only go into free fall when people are expecting the opposite. People who are reactionary rather than anticipatory will continue to be on the wrong side imo
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Post by brosin on Aug 12, 2011 16:13:40 GMT -5
fwiw (relevant to this thread), my allocation headed into this weekend is by far my most bullish allocation of the year! Only time I've been more long than short by a long shot and first time since November I'm 50% long or more
ALLOCATIONS
LONG 49.56%
SHORT 40.31%
CASH 10.13%
100.00%
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Post by erxtrader on Aug 12, 2011 18:38:46 GMT -5
Of course it's not over. But that's why we go higher for now since everyone is (finally) fully prepared for it. Market can only go into free fall when people are expecting the opposite. People who are reactionary rather than anticipatory will continue to be on the wrong side imo You may have noticed that, as a day of significant event (e.g., a politicanl event, economic data release date, etc.) approaches, a market index tends to move toward a particular resistance or support. Technicians usually don't know, at that resistance or support, where the market index will move to. A different way of saying this is that the market doesn't yet know whether the event will bring price positive news or price negative news. A good example is how the market behaves an employment report. I am saying that Tuesday is one of those days. No one can know for sure what the result of EU leaders meeting will bring. It would make sense to trade with that in mind, as a trader would do with any other important dates (e.g., a day at which ISM Mfg data is announced). |
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Post by rex on Aug 12, 2011 18:50:28 GMT -5
I think Bros and everyone else is worn out on the double dip thing. For two/1/2 years of things being horrible, ugly and the markets still went up...in a big way. This has taken it's toll on shorts. It just doesn't pay to be in cash or short this market ever!!! You go long and if there's a pull back, just wait it out. It'll be back way above within a few days or weeks which is no time at all. I'm sick of SHORT. Even with this last debacle, if I would have stayed long biased over the last two years, I would have made an extra 300-400k.
There never will be a double dip, or anything close to it....Period.
That's my take and I'm long and strong.
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Post by erxtrader on Aug 12, 2011 19:15:25 GMT -5
I think Bros and everyone else is worn out on the double dip thing. For two/1/2 years of things being horrible, ugly and the markets still went up...in a big way. This has taken it's toll on shorts. It just doesn't pay to be in cash or short this market ever!!! You go long and if there's a pull back, just wait it out. It'll be back way above within a few days or weeks which is no time at all. I'm sick of SHORT. Even with this last debacle, if I would have stayed long biased over the last two years, I would have made an extra 300-400k. There never will be a double dip, or anything close to it....Period. That's my take and I'm long and strong. I don't quite undersatnd what you are saying. One doesn't need to short the market to make money. One does need to time the market. That means buying at local lows and selling at local highs. All the trading techniques we talk about, they can be characterized as timing the market. |
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Post by cosmic on Aug 12, 2011 19:28:50 GMT -5
Of course it's not over. But that's why we go higher for now since everyone is (finally) fully prepared for it. Market can only go into free fall when people are expecting the opposite. People who are reactionary rather than anticipatory will continue to be on the wrong side imo You may have noticed that, as a day of significant event (e.g., a politicanl event, economic data release date, etc.) approaches, a market index tends to move toward a particular resistance or support. Technicians usually don't know, at that resistance or support, where the market index will move to. A different way of saying this is that the market doesn't yet know whether the event will bring price positive news or price negative news. A good example is how the market behaves an employment report. I am saying that Tuesday is one of those days. No one can know for sure what the result of EU leaders meeting will bring. It would make sense to trade with that in mind, as a trader would do with any other important dates (e.g., a day at which ISM Mfg data is announced). The general wisdom would be to fade Monday's move then. |
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Post by erxtrader on Aug 12, 2011 19:40:32 GMT -5
The general wisdom would be to fade Monday's move then. That would make sense (assuming there is no other event to wreck the trade). |
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Post by huh? on Aug 12, 2011 19:41:18 GMT -5
If Monday gaps up big, I'll be more than fading it.
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Post by erxtrader on Aug 12, 2011 19:47:03 GMT -5
Tuesday can be VERY interesting day.
(1) Housing starts
(2) Industrial production
I think both will show improvement. Not necessarily because our economy is improving, but because defaults are being held back by government and Japan coming back on line.
If the EU meeting turns positive, we can have a MEGA move up. It is also possible to hve a large downward move, but the chances are less. Of course, we can't rule out a boring day. The time to prepare/set up the trade would be near Monday close.
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Post by rex on Aug 12, 2011 19:53:31 GMT -5
Tuesday can be VERY interesting day. (1) Housing starts (I think this will be good) (2) Industrial production I think both will show improvement. Not necessarily because our economy is improving, but because defaults are being held back by government and Japan coming back on line. If the EU meeting turns positive, we can have a MEGA move. Now me, I think housing starts will stink and IP will come in unconsequential. But I'll remain a bull for the "fade then rebound" on a bad econo news day. Thyen, tuesday nothing bad will happen...like there are going to do anything that causes another 5-600 ptys sell off. Ouyr leaders are talking more than you think and they have more rabbits to "pull out of the hat". There will be no retest of 1120 for at least 1 year, if ever!!! |
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Post by timber on Aug 13, 2011 6:09:12 GMT -5
i one who thinks they will retest the lows before the whole mess blows over
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Post by erxtrader on Aug 13, 2011 7:50:03 GMT -5
Guesses and speculations far into the future do not help one trade ...
Near term calculations do help ... One can map out all the resistances & supports, where the wedges and flags lead to, pivot points, moving averages, etc. I call all these "decision points."
One can then match the decision points to dates (or times) when important data/information will be released ... EU leaders will hold meetings on Tuesday, the housing starts data will be released on Tuesday, etc., One can then bias each decision point, as > 50% the market will move up or down ...
So, one can layout one's trading strategies based on this near term map of decision points ... Basically, at each decision point, one can decide at what price one can buy and sell, where to place stops, whether one will participate on a trade, whether to use options or just stocks, etc.
Since there are MANY decision points in a given time span and each decision point has 2 possibilities (up or down) ... one can see that a map of decision point (a sequence of them), is basically a binary tree.
As one trades each decision point, the future becomes the present ... and the market reveals where it MAYBE headed next ... , . You let the data determine which way it is likely to go, and you trade accordingly. If you happen to think that the market WAS wrong to move in a particular direction at a particular decision point, based on certain data/information, then you have to BIAS the market's next move on the next decision point (favoring an up-move or down move) ...
Trading is, then, walking down a binary decision tree. Possibilities in this decision tree grows exponentially as a function of time. Because of the sheer number, mapping out the trading strategies of more than few days is useless. Too many scenarios ... too many possibilities ... Too much uncertainty.
Given that looking at possibilities of more than a few trading days worth of decision points usually becomes speculative, at least from trading perspective, divining whether the market will hit 1400 ... whether the market is bear market or a bull market, etc. (all designed to characterize the market as being this or that) ... are utterly useless ... My guess would be as just as meaningless as the next guys ...
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Post by timber on Aug 13, 2011 8:38:59 GMT -5
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Post by brosin on Aug 13, 2011 12:32:06 GMT -5
Guesses and speculations far into the future do not help one trade ... Near term calculations do help ... One can map out all the resistances & supports, where the wedges and flags lead to, pivot points, moving averages, etc. I call all these "decision points." One can then match the decision points to dates (or times) when important data/information will be released ... EU leaders will hold meetings on Tuesday, the housing starts data will be released on Tuesday, etc., One can then bias each decision point, as > 50% the market will move up or down ... So, one can layout one's trading strategies based on this near term map of decision points ... Basically, at each decision point, one can decide at what price one can buy and sell, where to place stops, whether one will participate on a trade, whether to use options or just stocks, etc. Since there are MANY decision points in a given time span and each decision point has 2 possibilities (up or down) ... one can see that a map of decision point (a sequence of them), is basically a binary tree. As one trades each decision point, the future becomes the present ... and the market reveals where it MAYBE headed next ... , . You let the data determine which way it is likely to go, and you trade accordingly. If you happen to think that the market WAS wrong to move in a particular direction at a particular decision point, based on certain data/information, then you have to BIAS the market's next move on the next decision point (favoring an up-move or down move) ... Trading is, then, walking down a binary decision tree. Possibilities in this decision tree grows exponentially as a function of time. Because of the sheer number, mapping out the trading strategies of more than few days is useless. Too many scenarios ... too many possibilities ... Too much uncertainty. Given that looking at possibilities of more than a few trading days worth of decision points usually becomes speculative, at least from trading perspective, divining whether the market will hit 1400 ... whether the market is bear market or a bull market, etc. (all designed to characterize the market as being this or that) ... are utterly useless ... My guess would be as just as meaningless as the next guys ... It is really quite simple IMO. Markets shift resources from the impatient to the patient (traders to investors). There is no easy money, quick score, home run, etc. Markets create the most pain for the most people. It especially creates the most pain for the people who are about to be right. |
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Post by huh? on Aug 13, 2011 18:25:39 GMT -5
Exalt and amen for that Bros. I especially like that last line.
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Post by erxtrader on Aug 13, 2011 22:52:18 GMT -5
Markets create the most pain for the most people. It especially creates the most pain for the people who are about to be right. Rather, I think, the "amount" of pain reflects the size of the bottom/top. |
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Post by brosin on Aug 15, 2011 13:57:05 GMT -5
The long awaited 1130/50 churn area has fully arrived! Added to my fresh new FAZ short at $75.90 (first entry this am was $70.60) - have gone half in. Expecting to see some strength this week to shake some bears off this freight train As mentioned I'm playing this as a 5-10% market bounce from this area to take us back to around 1200 SPX or so. Checked for some more FAZ shares to add a final bullet to my short position, but none are available. (just posted it in PPDT as well, but bought a couple FAS long shares instead $13.56) Between these 4 entries, has played out pretty well. I think there's still more to go, but covered 1/3 of the FAZ short here at $56.45... Holding the rest, may cover more today if we surge a little further into the close Re-added my FAZ short shares that I covered yesterday Got em at $61.50.. Thinking very strong up week is on tap Rinse and repeat? Covered 1/3 of my FAZ short here at $56.10 Still think we have a lot to go this week, but if we bounce down off 1200 SPX here, I'll have a nice chance to add those shares back at higher price |
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Post by commodityypro on Aug 15, 2011 14:02:00 GMT -5
Great call on the FAZ short Bros.
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Post by brosin on Aug 16, 2011 11:39:29 GMT -5
Just added those FAZ short shares back at $57.95 - may have been able to wait but we'll see
GLTA
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