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Post by brosin on Sept 24, 2010 11:35:14 GMT -5
So I guess it came out yesterday and not today as I had thought: www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h3/Current/Yet again, I found this to be even MORE significant than I thought when putting it to the test in chart form Total numbers and Percent Moves as well (CLICK it for the best view as it shrinks it to an almost unreadable font)  -- Notice where the spikes and drops are. -- The 2 week period that just ended had the biggest drop since the Spring when we saw a major drop. |
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Post by brosin on Sept 24, 2010 11:37:19 GMT -5
Here's the posts showing why I watch this: I find this *supremely* significant. Take a look (I will also post in Charts and Chats) at excess reserves: www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h3/current/$20 billion had come out of excess reserves in the 2 weeks ending 9/9/10. What was the market doing for those 2 weeks? This number will eventually reach 0 again as it always should be. That is still $1 trillion in funds that will need a home. They won't be going into Treasuries at historical highs soon to never be seen ever again. This is all money creation. $1 Trillion in money creation equates to roughly $5 trillion in actual money lent. If we are to assume this is money lent on 2.5:1 leverage (most ordinary investors' leverage limits), that is $12.5 Trillion in buying power created. If we are to assume a sizeable percentage is lent to institutional investors who can leverage it to the moon if they want (let's say 10:1 [still a less than realistic number]), that is $50 Trillion in buying power that will soon be entering the economy. The US stock market is valued at about $15 trillion total. Hmm. Please note, excess reserves is the *#1* reason I remained bullish as of a few weeks ago when thinking everything through. This is money that will inevitably enter the system. Right now it remains in bank vault limbo with no multiplier / money creation effect. |
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Post by brosin on Sept 24, 2010 12:03:21 GMT -5
Remember that September has 2 different entries since that is the month we are in.
Once Sept is over, that total September number is going to show an enormous drop. And in that same time period, we have seen an enormous move in equities (10%). Is there any question that the theory is correct as far as all that money inevitably entering the economy?
I have said it before, and I'll no doubt say it again. Bears ignore what is going on with the Fed at their own peril.
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Post by brosin on Oct 7, 2010 15:59:52 GMT -5
The new data is out for the past 2 weeks. Total ERs continue to fall (no surprise there), although it is falling at a slower rate than it was showing for the 2 wks ending 9/22. This goes along with what we were seeing in the markets (market still going up, but less strongly). We are trending the right direction, and overall, the ER total is now at a 12 month low. The last time it was this low was Sept 2009.  |
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Post by maxi on Oct 7, 2010 17:43:24 GMT -5
Brosin, just a suggestion. When you end with a statement like the above,"last time ER were this low was Sept 2009" (or whatever you said) Could you please state what happened then and your conclusion for now? TIA..
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Post by brosin on Nov 5, 2010 10:59:11 GMT -5
ERs showed the first increase in awhile for the 2 weeks ending Oct 20 - this is while the market was largely moving sideways, so that is not that surprising; also, the increase was not very much relative to other increases in the past (see the blue line using the right axis - it was a 1.2% increase, nothing like the 10% increases in late 2009 / early 2010). For the 2 weeks ending yesterday, we are back on the decrease trail although still slightly above the Oct 6 level. With the market exploding higher, we would very much want to see this number decrease for the next reporting date (2 weeks from yesterday). This would suggest bank lending is finally starting to pick up and get back to normal. We are still *very* far from normalcy, but we are heading in the right direction.  |
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Post by brosin on Nov 19, 2010 14:25:13 GMT -5
This month's data (released yesterday) shows that it decreased ever so slightly. There is not much to see, given that the market is almost exactly where it was 2 weeks ago at Nov 3...  |
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Post by timber on Nov 19, 2010 14:34:21 GMT -5
ok thats nice brosin do we go up or down here
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Post by commodityypro on Nov 19, 2010 14:42:17 GMT -5
ok thats nice brosin do we go up or down here You seriously are asking Brosin the permabull this question right now Timber? lol |
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Post by timber on Nov 19, 2010 14:44:46 GMT -5
well i cant stand boring markets....and they say not to short them dont they
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Post by commodityypro on Nov 19, 2010 14:45:45 GMT -5
true
boring market days are the best days to raz Brosin.. ;D
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Post by crumbdon on Nov 19, 2010 14:59:44 GMT -5
An exalt to Brosin for his relentless research on our behalf!!
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Post by supranatural on Nov 19, 2010 15:01:54 GMT -5
Com , not pund intended, but I have seen Brosin like a bull and a bear ( just days ago), if there is a perma, that one is you like a permabear fighting the tape & FED for more than one year...
Brosin have originals & Great contributions to this foro , in fact , very originals and well thinking ones...
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Post by abdogman on Nov 19, 2010 15:03:06 GMT -5
An exalt to Brosin for just being Relentless!!!!!!LOL!
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Post by walnut on Nov 19, 2010 15:21:46 GMT -5
Perma anything is an unrealistic and unhealthy bias, will cost much dollars over time. I tend to be always bullish, thinking I can ride out the downturns, sometimes I get away with it, others not.
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Post by brosin on Dec 2, 2010 12:31:17 GMT -5
I am excited to see what it says today: I would expect that some of that money started coming out on all the recent "fears" www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h3/Release Dates These data are released each Thursday, generally at 4:30 p.m. Publication may be shifted to the next business day when the regular publication date falls on a federal holiday |
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Post by brosin on Dec 27, 2010 11:31:34 GMT -5
This is not good - had missed the last release 2 weeks ago (next one this Thurs)... last time we saw reserves spike like this was from Jan to Feb 2010; the market did not do well over that time period. Coupled with a lot of other things, I do not like what it is signaling. www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h3/current/ |
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Post by cosmic on Dec 27, 2010 11:47:11 GMT -5
Good Stuff Bros ;D
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Post by puurfectten on Dec 27, 2010 12:20:13 GMT -5
nice bros..so far everything is playing out exactly as last year...doesn't look like it's gonna be "different this time"..  |
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Post by jack on Dec 27, 2010 12:30:45 GMT -5
This is not good - had missed the last release 2 weeks ago (next one this Thurs)... last time we saw reserves spike like this was from Jan to Feb 2010; the market did not do well over that time period. Coupled with a lot of other things, I do not like what it is signaling. www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h3/current/If I'm reading that chart right the reserves have not yet "spiked like (Jan-Feb '10)." The last spike is less than half of that former period's (correct me if I'm wrong). Thx |
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Post by brosin on Dec 27, 2010 12:34:51 GMT -5
Yep that's right Jack (about 5% increase from Nov to Dec so far compared to just over 10% increase from Jan to Feb 2010)... there is one more release date in Dec though (Dec 30), so depending on what has happened from Dec 15-Dec 30, it very well might be that the move from Nov to Dec 2010 here will end up closer to that Jan to Feb 10% spike by time it is said and done.
It's possible this has more to do with year end-related activity (taxes, holiday spending) than actual new fears, but combined with a lot of other things that on the surface look less than bullish to me, and I will have a close eye on the Thursday report and the first one on Jan 13.
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Post by brosin on Feb 1, 2011 21:24:21 GMT -5
Bump for the Mist - CNBC says bank lending is on the rise.
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Post by Rich on Feb 1, 2011 21:29:48 GMT -5
credit cards too.
car dealerships offering 0% financing.
we've been through this before, I think.
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Post by Rich on Feb 1, 2011 21:33:22 GMT -5
sign and drive, my father-in-law gets a kick outta that  |
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Post by brosin on Feb 1, 2011 21:51:20 GMT -5
This is the 2nd monthly Green Bar in a row, with the green bar signifying the amount of excess reserves has increased. So the amount of money that the banks do NOT have to hold as reserves (opportunity cost) has increased. They are less willing to take risk - of course we are talking ridiculous levels already since *before Sept 2009 this was always right near $0* This chart is obviously then only looking at the time period of Sept 2008 forward  |
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Post by brosin on Feb 17, 2011 16:41:05 GMT -5
Not good at all:  |
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Post by brosin on Feb 17, 2011 20:04:33 GMT -5
This and the current Fed Funds Rate are main reasons I cannot be even remotely bullish.
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Post by brosin on Feb 22, 2011 19:28:13 GMT -5
This is starting to make a lot more sense to me. The question all along of "why the banks are getting increasingly risk adverse despite the stock market seeming to think everything is fine" is starting to approach a potential answer: there is global trouble brewing. Admittedly, this is only speculation on my part - but look closely at what type of picture excess reserves are painting, and you will see why I just could not / can not be bullish.
This is very unnoticed so far IMO
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Post by novice08 on Feb 22, 2011 20:26:51 GMT -5
Global trouble plus the pricing in of the end of QEII...what do you think of that, bros? I am long, but getting a bit more bearish as I think this through.
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Post by brosin on Feb 22, 2011 21:34:38 GMT -5
I could see that - kind of putting it away for a rainy day if they assume things will tank after that. Whatever it is, they're definitely worried about write downs of some sort.
It's not really the direction by itself that concerns me; it is the divergence that makes it seem like a trap. The market should be moving down when reserves are heading up. And up until POMO time, that was the case. There is so much distortion, but you can only fool markets for so long.
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