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Post by cosmic on Mar 18, 2011 15:13:58 GMT -5
It was a big OPEX with a big unwind. Everyone loses so it was successful lol. I am very very bearish about next week and I really really hope I'm wrong. I can't shake it that real doom is coming and the pops will be minimal - just enough to drag bulls in only to slaughter them. We've been forced to BTFD for 6 months and the behavioral mod is well entrenched. I mean BTFD is now an acronym recognized by my iSmug. If you buy now I'm predicting it's too early and you will need to hold a very long time. Many companies have stock valuations near 2008 levels but still haven't reinstated dividends. This is hugely problematic to me and suggests paper tigers not real improvements. Hording cash. Sound familiar? See Bros's expose on the excess reserves. No trades, I'm afraid to do anything right now so heavy cash IS my market position with some longs and a spy short leg of a straddle still in effect. Careful out there. Hope everyone made some money today and will do so on Monday. Members, please post your results along with your RDA of new and improved smileys!  |
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Post by jack on Mar 18, 2011 15:20:54 GMT -5
Exalt to Cos for trying to warn us we don't do something stupid...but DANG that fiber optic sector has been taking such a helluva beating: FNSR, OCLR, JDSU...
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Post by demanuel2001 on Mar 18, 2011 15:36:48 GMT -5
I feel like singing that song from the Life of Brian - the one where they are all being crucified. "Always look on the bright side of life - ta dum ta dum. Life's a pile of shit when you look at it . . .". A disappointing finish to the day as LVS's second nosedive of the day took me down. Made a bit on EWJ - looks like I'm down about 1/2% of portfolio value for the day - dang it. I actually think the weekend will bring us more good news and a bounce next week.
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yjfang
Broker/Dealer
Posts: 525
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Post by yjfang on Mar 18, 2011 15:37:49 GMT -5
I closed out all of the existing LVS short put positions today. Just left with a few long shares here and there in which I will be hedging with covered calls. Mostly cash at this point, somewhere around 60-100% of the account (depending on the account.) Lost some (mostly house money), am down but far from out.
Frustrated with the lawsuit overhanging cloud on LVS. I know fundamentally its a great company but not sure if the CEO is shareholder friendly. And no it is not another APWR. APWR is a fraud. LVS is arrogant. As mentioned before, I really dislike playing individual stocks and prefer sector/index ETFs. It's nearly impossible to know everything about a company + the stock price manipulation that goes on with bots.
Looking to getting back into FAS or some other sector/index ETF when the dust settles. Let's see how we do at S&P 1220's support area.
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Post by papasloth on Mar 18, 2011 15:38:33 GMT -5
Busy day for me positioning for opex.
TIVO:
Closed out my short Mar 9 puts around even.
Will let my short Mar 8 puts expire out of the money, net up .247/sh
I'm out of TIVO for now. Their en banc decision against Echo Star is looming, and I don't want to get caught on the wrong side of it.
LDK:
LDK had a massively good earnings report yesterday, after market close, and sold off big today. I really think the Apr 10 puts are way over priced at .33/sh. I can see LDK dropping to 10ish, but will be really shocked to see less than that by Apr opex.
Will let my short Mar 11 puts expire out of the money, net up .3322/sh
Added to my short Apr 10 puts.
SVNT:
Short Mar 10 calls at .25/sh, will expire out of the money
Short Mar 11 calls at .60/sh, will expire out of the money
Short Mar 11 puts at 2.00/sh, will expire in the money. Sold some of my long position yesterday and today for around 9.4 and will take assignment. Net result, up around .40/sh.
Added to my short Apr 9 puts.
Holding short Apr 10 puts and an undersized position short Apr 11 puts.
CLWR:
Will let my short Mar 5 puts expire out of the money, net up .55/sh
Shorted some Jun 5 puts at .65/sh. This is a longer time frame than I usually like, because the theta decay on longer-term options sucks. But, the maintenance requirements are low and I wanted to make sure I had a positive cash balance in the account after I took assignment of the SVNT puts.
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Post by cosmic on Mar 18, 2011 16:05:00 GMT -5
Exalt to Cos for trying to warn us we don't do something stupid...but DANG that fiber optic sector has been taking such a helluva beating: FNSR, OCLR, JDSU... Jack, OCLR is almost criminal, took 30% off it in just the last few days. I'm not exactly sure why... was there some big Egyptian/Lybian/Japanese Fiber purchase order out there somewhere that had to be cancelled? You'd think... given the infrastructure rebuild in 2 out of those 3, fiber would be the choice right? |
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Post by cosmic on Mar 18, 2011 16:11:27 GMT -5
I closed out all of the existing LVS short put positions today. Just left with a few long shares here and there in which I will be hedging with covered calls. Mostly cash at this point, somewhere around 60-100% of the account (depending on the account.) Lost some (mostly house money), am down but far from out. Frustrated with the lawsuit overhanging cloud on LVS. I know fundamentally its a great company but not sure if the CEO is shareholder friendly. And no it is not another APWR. APWR is a fraud. LVS is arrogant. As mentioned before, I really dislike playing individual stocks and prefer sector/index ETFs. It's nearly impossible to know everything about a company + the stock price manipulation that goes on with bots. Looking to getting back into FAS or some other sector/index ETF when the dust settles. Let's see how we do at S&P 1220's support area. I think we agree on the indexes and sectors. I'm moving mostly away from individual plays starting next month because it's impossible. It truly is roulette. As to LVS, I know, I know, I take a lot of crap for my position on it. Again, it's just an opinion that it will not be a great trading stock going forward. APWR was a great trading stock, and then it was taken out back and shot. LVS was a great trading stock, but until this thing clears, investors may buy but traders will stay clear because it will be too erratic, like I said expect 12-20 media bombs, once a month or so, to clobber everyone. That will kill it as a great trading stock. When APWR was going down, I suggested just prior to the break of the '$12' level that if it broke 12 for any length of time, there was something more fundamentally wrong with the company and that it wasn't just a hedge raid. I felt a lot of heat on those statements, but I held on and never changed my mind. I think today it is true that what I was seeing was real - in your own words APWR was a fraud. I hope I am wrong, I have a small allocation of shares that even with calls sold I'm not going to break even for a while. My B/E is 43 - and that mark will not be touched for many many months. If you were to sell calls, what strikes would you be looking at? |
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Post by maxi on Mar 18, 2011 16:16:24 GMT -5
How about looking at it differently. OCLR is STILL up 29% from November.. November price 8.25 current price 10.66.... The whole sector reminds me of VMW ...2007
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Post by maxi on Mar 18, 2011 16:19:01 GMT -5
Sold 25% of my HAL at 44.60..... I had those shares from 43.84. The rest are still in the red tho. Have no idea if that was the right thing to do
or not. But It has been bothering me to have so this was as good a day as any to get that cash back out. My husband is having the second (and final) operation Monday morning!
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Post by benvestor on Mar 18, 2011 16:26:55 GMT -5
let my VXX calls expire worthless.. Yay for me. Man i used to make a killing on OTM aapl options when i was able to just focus on intraday swings with like 5k dollars
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Post by cosmic on Mar 18, 2011 16:28:45 GMT -5
How about looking at it differently. OCLR is STILL up 29% from November.. November price 8.25 current price 10.66.... The whole sector reminds me of VMW ...2007 Ok I'll give you the glass-half-full Maxi. If you were trading for profit you'd be fairly pissed that 30% of your profit just eroded in about a week... that's all. OCLR has had worse things happen to it than whatever just did. ELON same thing - nice run, discipline in my trade said get out at 10.60, I bolted early at 10.30. Back to where I originally started buying it. Weird stuff indeed. |
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Post by benvestor on Mar 18, 2011 16:33:34 GMT -5
i really think we double tap 1250 and then go up to 1320ish before the last down wave to 1200 ish maybe lower?
Cosmic - What was it that meatpop said ?
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Post by cosmic on Mar 18, 2011 16:45:16 GMT -5
MP has 1150-1160
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Post by benvestor on Mar 18, 2011 16:56:51 GMT -5
seems a bit doomy? what method of analysis does he use?
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Post by cosmic on Mar 18, 2011 17:06:39 GMT -5
It's kinda complex, he once mumbled something about hyperdimensional physics, Fermat's Last Theorem and olives and cocktail napkins. Somehow they all come together.
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yjfang
Broker/Dealer
Posts: 525
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Post by yjfang on Mar 18, 2011 17:10:03 GMT -5
Okay I will state the obvious first: I would short calls with strike(s) in which I would gain a fair amount of premium but with low probability for getting the shares called away. You could try to get a little every month and repeat or a lot in one shot and go out several months or even to year end. You can look at T/A to see where the levels will now be resistance (R1, R2, R3, whatever). I was interested in April monthly $40-$41's just on a whim but will need to revaluate over the weekend. My gut tells me $40 will be very difficult to penetrate on the upside. I closed out all of the existing LVS short put positions today. Just left with a few long shares here and there in which I will be hedging with covered calls. Mostly cash at this point, somewhere around 60-100% of the account (depending on the account.) Lost some (mostly house money), am down but far from out. Frustrated with the lawsuit overhanging cloud on LVS. I know fundamentally its a great company but not sure if the CEO is shareholder friendly. And no it is not another APWR. APWR is a fraud. LVS is arrogant. As mentioned before, I really dislike playing individual stocks and prefer sector/index ETFs. It's nearly impossible to know everything about a company + the stock price manipulation that goes on with bots. Looking to getting back into FAS or some other sector/index ETF when the dust settles. Let's see how we do at S&P 1220's support area. I think we agree on the indexes and sectors. I'm moving mostly away from individual plays starting next month because it's impossible. It truly is roulette. As to LVS, I know, I know, I take a lot of crap for my position on it. Again, it's just an opinion that it will not be a great trading stock going forward. APWR was a great trading stock, and then it was taken out back and shot. LVS was a great trading stock, but until this thing clears, investors may buy but traders will stay clear because it will be too erratic, like I said expect 12-20 media bombs, once a month or so, to clobber everyone. That will kill it as a great trading stock. When APWR was going down, I suggested just prior to the break of the '$12' level that if it broke 12 for any length of time, there was something more fundamentally wrong with the company and that it wasn't just a hedge raid. I felt a lot of heat on those statements, but I held on and never changed my mind. I think today it is true that what I was seeing was real - in your own words APWR was a fraud. I hope I am wrong, I have a small allocation of shares that even with calls sold I'm not going to break even for a while. My B/E is 43 - and that mark will not be touched for many many months. If you were to sell calls, what strikes would you be looking at? |
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Post by timber on Mar 18, 2011 18:21:49 GMT -5
i did really well this week playing japan
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Post by brosin on Mar 18, 2011 18:25:08 GMT -5
let my VXX calls expire worthless.. Yay for me. Man i used to make a killing on OTM aapl options when i was able to just focus on intraday swings with like 5k dollars were they weeklies or monthlies ben? sorry to hear about your loss i learned my lesson not to play anything near expiration - will stick to at least 1-2 months out; some of clemson's comments about playing longer dated options resonated with me you had to have had the best week in fastopia by FAR though! congrats again - has mason allowed you guys to get any sleep?! |
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Post by brosin on Mar 18, 2011 19:20:06 GMT -5
FFR was level at .14% and remains in 'stink bid watch' - it was a strong sign for the bulls on Tuesday that it bounced off the fresh 52 week low even with global markets tanking (Japan down 10%) that night; it was as weak a sign for the bulls that it did not pop either of the last two mornings even with the market strong. My FAZ relost a bit more coming off the Tuesday close that was almost back at even from my Dec/Jan entries monopoly world / big cap - "warning: squid at play." Even with market well green, acct was +.2% on the day. A few moves.. sells: (all) SLV @ $34.20 / +2.4% from yesterday (all) GLD @ $138.50 / +1.7% from yesterday shorts: (add) S @ $5.08 / now 6x short position avg $4.96 unrealized -1.9% (new) BIDU @ $121.65 buys: (add) FAZ @ $41.72 / now 8x "long" position avg $44.96 unrealized -6.3% (was first add to this position since 1/24/11) I am 100% short |
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Post by sloop on Mar 18, 2011 19:31:57 GMT -5
pre market I was making good money ...but they would not sell my CRUS. I put in a market order in out of desperation....and I had 2800 and I lost 340 how the hell does that work. They stole from me.
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Post by kbk3ck on Mar 18, 2011 19:39:20 GMT -5
My FAS that i got Thursday for 28.18 closed today at $28.96 ;D
My SOXL i got Thursday for $50.28 closed today at $50.67. Both of these were sky high early on and I was looking sooo smart fo buying these. Now? Not so much. Still green and holding over the weekend!!!!
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Post by bellevuetrader on Mar 18, 2011 21:31:12 GMT -5
Thanks for all the commentary and posts...interesting perspective from all. Can someone please mark this post so we can refer back to it?! I sold my short FAZ position today for a nice profit considering I was balls deep and down 6% at one point! Cleaned up by covering at $41.45...Not a bad week afterall!!
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Post by kbk3ck on Mar 18, 2011 21:43:23 GMT -5
Good job Bell.
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Post by brosin on Mar 18, 2011 21:48:33 GMT -5
Belle you could click on "bookmark" down on the bottom left just above the "quick reply" portion Or if you mean the wrap itself, all the wraps get stored in the Fastopia Historical Society (you can get there from the main homepage) |
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