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Post by brosin on Apr 18, 2011 11:07:10 GMT -5
I really don't know how much I would want to be long them anymore. $1500 gold, $42 silver with it looking like the market is ready to collapse?
True deflationary fears are arriving -- if not here already -- despite all the liquidity the Fed has pumped in. If that is the case and the Euro was the thing being pumped up all along, the USD could be set for a huge 2008-like rally which would crush the metal trades, especially silver.
In the words of Herceg, JMO and BOL
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Post by brosin on Apr 18, 2011 11:13:53 GMT -5
in a couple years, I wonder if it's going to look like this all over again:  |
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Post by jack on Apr 18, 2011 11:18:06 GMT -5
What deflation of what? Thx
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Post by novice08 on Apr 18, 2011 11:21:36 GMT -5
BTW, soft commods up today in spite of oil down...dag is my biggest green...mostly red.
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Post by natsalilfly on Apr 18, 2011 11:46:52 GMT -5
in a couple years, I wonder if it's going to look like this all over again: nah...  I think the wishy washiness in mining stocks over the last week is due to a lot of people wondering if gold can hold above 1500, and silver above 40 or even 50. But 2011 is not 1980. Given the centuries old nature of PMs, 1980 for all its balloonishness could have just been a precursor of things to come - sort of like a stock that reaches a new high one week, backs off, and comes around again in a couple of weeks to stay. Its possible that stocks gaged in weeks are equivalent, or analogous, to PMs gaged in decades. |
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Post by brosin on Apr 18, 2011 11:51:43 GMT -5
True, and those are some good points (esp the one where maybe 1980 was a precursor), but if a double dip recession is on the way (deflation), the USD will once again become a safehaven I believe as there just aren't other alternatives unless we were to see a complete shakeup of how the global system works (i.e. move back to a gold / silver standard). It's possible that the moves in the metals are speculation that exactly that might happen, but I'm skeptical.
Jack: Deflation of everything. Maybe that's the lesser of two evils (deflation vs stagflation) though
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Post by jack on Apr 18, 2011 12:00:00 GMT -5
True, and those are some good points (esp the one where maybe 1980 was a precursor), but if a double dip recession is on the way (deflation), the USD will once again become a safehaven I believe as there just aren't other alternatives unless we were to see a complete shakeup of how the global system works (i.e. move back to a gold / silver standard). It's possible that the moves in the metals are speculation that exactly that might happen, but I'm skeptical. Jack: Deflation of everything. Maybe that's the lesser of two evils (deflation vs stagflation) though Re: Jack: Deflation of everything. Sorry...I just don't see that happening but wth do I know. |
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Post by natsalilfly on Apr 18, 2011 12:08:35 GMT -5
If a double dip is indeed coming, PM stocks will go down with the market but they were the first to rebound in 2009 and I would expect to see the same again. In fact, no matter how devestating another double dip I bet we don't see SLW @ $2.50!
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Post by brosin on Apr 18, 2011 12:23:21 GMT -5
True, and those are some good points (esp the one where maybe 1980 was a precursor), but if a double dip recession is on the way (deflation), the USD will once again become a safehaven I believe as there just aren't other alternatives unless we were to see a complete shakeup of how the global system works (i.e. move back to a gold / silver standard). It's possible that the moves in the metals are speculation that exactly that might happen, but I'm skeptical. Jack: Deflation of everything. Maybe that's the lesser of two evils (deflation vs stagflation) though Re: Jack: Deflation of everything. Sorry...I just don't see that happening but wth do I know. It doesn't seem that anyone does other than the banks Maybe they see it directly through their mortgage portfolios |
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Post by timber on Apr 18, 2011 12:27:46 GMT -5
i think pms take a dump here soon......lot of call options being dumped here
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Post by jack on Apr 18, 2011 12:34:08 GMT -5
Re: Jack: Deflation of everything. Sorry...I just don't see that happening but wth do I know. It doesn't seem that anyone does other than the banks Maybe they see it directly through their mortgage portfolios Deflation of bank's mortgages' value I get...but not everything else Bros. |
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Post by brosin on Apr 18, 2011 12:44:43 GMT -5
It doesn't seem that anyone does other than the banks Maybe they see it directly through their mortgage portfolios Deflation of bank's mortgages' value I get...but not everything else Bros. Will depend on real demand, which I'm not sure if we'll be able to gauge until the Fed turns down the printing press from its current 11 reading.  |
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Post by novice08 on Apr 18, 2011 12:51:02 GMT -5
Worst of both worlds...deflation of assets (again), stocks, bonds, real estate...inflation of necessities...energy, food, medical care, etc. But jmo and has been for awhile, like Jack what do I know?  |
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Post by ccash04 on Apr 18, 2011 12:52:07 GMT -5
Deflation has been going on for sometime now.. if you price goods in terms of gold or silver  |
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Post by novice08 on Apr 18, 2011 12:53:27 GMT -5
Exalt cash.
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Post by novice08 on Apr 18, 2011 13:38:43 GMT -5
Miners getting hit hard, but look at phys and esp. pslv...glad I'm in those! Congrats on agq!!
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