|
|
Post by brosin on Mar 18, 2011 18:35:33 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by rex on Mar 18, 2011 18:42:46 GMT -5
Help, what is yikes about this?
|
|
|
|
Post by maxi on Mar 18, 2011 18:47:16 GMT -5
breakpointtrades.com/controls/preview.php?la_id=1195He mentions and shows the chart for the NYSI.. One of his comments on it is that it has not been a very accurate indicator as of late. Now B. Without saying I disagree with you or doubt you. You are beginning to sound like a little old lady with the panic posting. Be calm and rational in your reasoning and you will be better understood.
|
|
|
|
Post by brosin on Mar 18, 2011 18:50:59 GMT -5
ugh.. i am a big boy maxi - i am in the middle of the follow up post with explanation
frankly, i think i explain myself as bluntly and clearly as anyone here when it comes to all my opinions
|
|
|
|
Post by papasloth on Mar 18, 2011 18:53:14 GMT -5
Well, the black thingie is crossing the red thingie, and the bar thingie is red. That's never good. Plus, the RSI is going down but is still between the dotted line and the solid line. The good news is that I don't see any red triangles anywhere on the chart. I'm always afraid of red triangles. Those are almost as scary as when the one line crosses the other line.  |
|
|
|
Post by papasloth on Mar 18, 2011 18:55:09 GMT -5
Oh yeah, I forgot to mention that the red bar thingie is crossing the blue line. That's never good either.
|
|
|
|
Post by brosin on Mar 18, 2011 18:58:31 GMT -5
this is from tuesday night - mkt closed at SPX 1280... if you look at the chart after today (remember the market is STILL at 1280 SPX), you'll see that breadth has deteriorated mightily in the last 3 days even with the market having not moved; this is another way of showing exactly what the "squid alert" thread was alluding to... indexes not moving down, but a majority of individual stocks moving down had this not been a big deal, i would've posted it in the charts and chats thread as i had anticipated when i pulled up the $NYSI to begin with... my reaction was a "wow" aloud, so i thought it warranted another thread given how doomy it looks... hence the "yikes" thread title signed, little old lady trying to scare everyone to death for no reason have i presented myself over the last two years as a BEAR, let alone a fear mongerer? as far as i know, the last 3 weeks have been the first time that i have EVER told anyone flat out to sell... and i haven't exactly been wrong.... /'beyond frustrated & i give up' rant |
|
|
|
Post by brosin on Mar 18, 2011 19:02:27 GMT -5
if you look at all the other big red weekly bars, you'll see that it pretty much shows that there is an almost 100% chance that we will see continued selling for multiple more weeks at minimum
|
|
|
|
Post by timber on Mar 18, 2011 19:09:27 GMT -5
breakpointtrades.com/controls/preview.php?la_id=1195He mentions and shows the chart for the NYSI.. One of his comments on it is that it has not been a very accurate indicator as of late. Now B. Without saying I disagree with you or doubt you. You are beginning to sound like a little old lady with the panic posting. Be calm and rational in your reasoning and you will be better understood. thanks maxine...he seems to be really good |
|
|
|
Post by papasloth on Mar 18, 2011 19:09:30 GMT -5
if you look at all the other big red weekly bars, you'll see that it pretty much shows that there is an almost 100% chance that we will see continued selling for multiple more weeks at minimum I'm not arguing with you, I'm trying to understand your data. Please take this in that spirit. If I look at the last time the long red bars crossed the blue line, that's the period between Nov. 1st and Dec. 1st. Now, I look at the S&P between that period. It was 1184 on Nov 1st, and 1206 on Dec. 1st (after going up and down and flat for a while). Also, the RSI was between 30 and 50 but falling and the 12 MACD crossed the 26 MACD around half-way through then too. So why isn't this the same thing here? I'd expect it to bottom out around 250 or so next week or the week after and then start going back up again. Am I missing something? |
|
|
|
Post by brosin on Mar 18, 2011 19:29:07 GMT -5
Sorry Papa that comment of mine that you quoted wasn't referring to your comment - actually I thought you were just kidding or I would've tried to respond to it ;D
Honestly... I do not at all watch the MAs or trendlines here (Cosmic and Torrentio both liked putting a TA spin on this indicator, but as it is an indicator itself, I don't find TA on it very helpful personally). The thing I use it for is the timing. Dualism was very influential in making me realize that once the market gets too overextended in one direction and starts to reverse, it is a multiple week to multiple month long process. This goes for bullish reversals and bearish ones - I had personally always been early on trying to swing back from one side to another from a trading standpoint, and thus I found this very helpful in trying to temper that instinct to be too early.
So in other words, what this tells me is that we've had our 4th week of deteriorating breadth, and that this one was the first one where it was severely deteriorating. Usually the severe deterioration weeks are not single week events, and especially not when they come off very long rallies.
|
|
|
|
Post by brosin on Mar 18, 2011 19:30:21 GMT -5
And sorry I don't mean to detract attention from the thread with my being a b*tch
I fight with Maxi like I fight with my mom - and I love my mom ;D
|
|
|
|
Post by natsalilfly on Mar 18, 2011 19:38:17 GMT -5
Price action at the 50, MACD at the 0. We could A: consolidate here for a bit while world events simmer down; B: head south after a MACD cross and daily candles gravitate towards the 200; C: MACD curl up on Monday after we wipe out Gadaffi over the weekend, because the powers that be say the market has taken enough and want flyswatter action before market open. That's my official analysis.
|
|
|
|
Post by papasloth on Mar 18, 2011 19:40:39 GMT -5
Sorry Papa that comment of mine that you quoted wasn't referring to your comment - actually I thought you were just kidding or I would've tried to respond to it ;D I knew that, I was just sticking my nose in. And, I was kidding, so no response to the earlier message was expected (OK, maybe "smartass," but that's it). So in other words, what this tells me is that we've had our 4th week of deteriorating breadth, and that this one was the first one where it was severely deteriorating. Usually the severe deterioration weeks are not single week events, and especially not when they come off very long rallies. OK, that makes sense to me. I note that the previous drops lasted between 1 and 9 weeks, with the average looking to be around 5 as a guess. We're already into week 4 of this one, so I'd still guess we'll most likely turn around next week or the week after. I also wonder about how well the breadth indicator correlates with drops in the S&P. I understand the reasoning, I just don't have enough experience to say that it really works (and I'm too lazy to go back and check all the previous events). Assuming we were 3/4 of the way through this one, what would you guess the corresponding movement in the S&P would be for the last 1/4? |
|
|
|
Post by timber on Mar 18, 2011 19:41:16 GMT -5
the reason i dont post or analyze charts is because i dont have the experience of someone looking at them for 30 years and i will never be able to spot things that these guys could  |
|
|
|
Post by papasloth on Mar 18, 2011 19:42:10 GMT -5
I fight with Maxi like I fight with my mom - and I love my mom ;D <kbk drunk mode> I love your mom too, if you know what I mean. </kbk drunk mode> |
|
|
|
Post by elle on Mar 18, 2011 19:44:50 GMT -5
A more basic chart. Yeah, I'd like to see 1204 - would not be bad, tap Nat's 200. Below would be bad, there's that freefall/rip area to 1130.  Uploaded with ImageShack.usT, just draw a fork, super simple and work reasonably well when news is not an issue |
|
|
|
Post by maxi on Mar 18, 2011 19:45:44 GMT -5
Could someone stick the fib levels on there? Not the fib fan but the levels.
Oh Elle! I just saw your fork! Kudos. I really believe those are great indicators. We have not touched that middle fork yet.
|
|
|
|
Post by maxi on Mar 18, 2011 19:48:23 GMT -5
But really breaking that middle fork would be fairly ominous.
|
|
|
|
Post by jack on Mar 18, 2011 19:51:12 GMT -5
A more basic chart. Yeah, I'd like to see 1204 - would not be bad, tap Nat's 200. Below would be bad, there's that freefall/rip area to 1130. Uploaded with ImageShack.usT, just draw a fork, super simple and work reasonably well when news is not an issue That sorta looks like one of the "Big W" things Ukarlewitzky was always on about doesn't it? (In this case a positive one). See scene at the 3:50 mark |
|
|
|
Post by cosmic on Mar 18, 2011 19:53:03 GMT -5
I would say that the Red Hammer nature of the candle is generally telling, the question is how often does this particular setup succeed or fail? And what are the effects of POMO and other general news?
I have no farking clue, personally. But I believe that profit taking is profit taking and we're approaching IRS and 401K and IRA deadlines and yada yada yada so down seems a lot easier than up.
|
|
|
|
Post by elle on Mar 18, 2011 19:54:57 GMT -5
61 8 touch from Nov pullback, candle close 23.6 july low (not shown) good for a bounce, but hope we get lower prices than that  Uploaded with ImageShack.us |
|
|
|
Post by maxi on Mar 18, 2011 19:57:32 GMT -5
Thanks. FWIW I am most familiar with fib levels and forks. A 61 8% retracement is one heck of a big retrace. We will see......
|
|
|
|
Post by natsalilfly on Mar 18, 2011 19:57:52 GMT -5
Maybe some special person could correlate the SPX to the breadth chart with an overlay?
|
|
|
|
Post by brosin on Mar 18, 2011 20:00:19 GMT -5
I also wonder about how well the breadth indicator correlates with drops in the S&P. I understand the reasoning, I just don't have enough experience to say that it really works (and I'm too lazy to go back and check all the previous events). Assuming we were 3/4 of the way through this one, what would you guess the corresponding movement in the S&P would be for the last 1/4? This smells, looks, and feels like April (personally I think we were even more overdone this time around than we were in April, but regardless.), so let's look there because it is a good illustration of what I want to say: the breadth will always start to deteriorate before the market as a whole will start heading down. That seems logical, because some stocks will start to show weakness, then others, and then slowly everyone will catch on so that eventually it will be a race to the bottom. So it always seems to be the case that you will see the most selling at the final part of the correction/dip. Again, very easy to see the logic of that since that's how bottoms are formed (mass exit selling that will eventually reverse). So looking at April, you see that there were 6 weeks of small selling before the first real big red bar on the 7th week: for the final 2 weeks of March and all 4 weeks in April, the market breadth was slowly deteriorating. Then in that 7th week, it started deteriorating more quickly so that the race to the bottom was underway (8th week was the flash crash). We would have 5 more weeks into mid June before the breadth would even stop deteriorating. And then it still took multiple months of improving breadth before the market would finally breakout for good (takes a long time for the market to turn) in September... If this is anything like April (I believe it may end up being worse), where it took 6-7 weeks before the market would even *start* moving down (top April 26) very strongly, it would suggest that at minimum, we'd have another few weeks of strong selling if this was to be considered strong selling at all. Maybe the selling to come is going to be far worse, I don't know. Market would fall roughly 15% from the early May (pre-flash crash) levels to the eventual bottom in July (6-7 weeks) - it is a very rough guess to try and extrapolate of course, but lending markets are far worse than they were last summer, so I have to assume the market response could be worse; a similar move to last year's from the 1300 SPX level would be approx SPX 1100 in May/June. This actually jives with the 1130/50 area I had targeted as the spot where I will be fully back on the bull train. |
|
|
|
Post by elle on Mar 18, 2011 20:01:15 GMT -5
jack, I added a red line for the h/s n/l if we get a little rally
|
|
|
|
Post by maxi on Mar 18, 2011 20:02:40 GMT -5
ANd 1150 60 is the Meatpop number and it is the bottom of the fork. Like I said fall beneath that middle tine of the fork and it is downhill from there. See B. I don't disagree with you!
|
|
|
|
Post by elle on Mar 18, 2011 20:04:19 GMT -5
Thanks. FWIW I am most familiar with fib levels and forks. A 61 8% retracement is one heck of a big retrace. We will see...... hah, yah, I like forks very much - think of them in 3D with the middle tine a big crevice - with enough force you can roll away from it, but eventually it will pull you back in. |
|
|
|
Post by brosin on Mar 18, 2011 20:04:48 GMT -5
i know maxi i just didn't like getting called a little old lady i think!! ;D
and sorry i had made a mess with my last post - kept messing up the quotes but i fixed it
|
|
|
|
Post by Clinton SPX on Mar 18, 2011 20:06:16 GMT -5
TEPCO Director Weeps After Disclosing Truth About Fukushima Disaster
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/18/2011 14:13 -0400
Fail Gross Domestic Product Japan Meltdown Uranium
The Daily Mail has released a dramatic picture showing the emotional exhaustion of TEPCO managing director Akio Komori who is openly weeping as he leaves a conference to brief journalists on the true situation at Fukushima, following his acknowledgment that the radiation spewing from the over-heating reactors and fuel rods was enough to kill some citizens. "A senior Japanese minister also admitted that the country was overwhelmed by the scale of the tsunami and nuclear crisis. He said officials should have admitted earlier how serious the radiation leaks were. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano said: 'The unprecedented scale of the earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan, frankly speaking, were among many things that happened that had not been anticipated under our disaster management contingency plans." This is precisely as Zero Hedge had expected would happen all along, following our recurring allegations of a massive cover up by the Japanese government. And furthermore as we predicted a week ago when we said that continued government lies and subversions would make the situation untenable once the population loses faith in the government, this is precisely what has happened.
|
|
