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Post by cosmic on Jan 29, 2011 19:43:15 GMT -5
Thought I would kick off a thread where we can talk about trading strategies right now - with a potential near term top, Egypt, etc.
I also put a poll at the top for opinion on whether you think we've hit a near term peak and will now begin some form of pullback.
For me:
Remaining positions: Will continue to sell covered calls on pops.
New positions: No new positions without covered calls
Increment positions: Can be done at obvious supports only, no shooting from the hip, plan on it still going lower
(corollary... if an incremental position is purchased to hedge the covered call hedge, can be done at any time)
Focus areas:
Bio (more immune)
Avoid main indexes
On impulse days allowed to purchase an ATM put position
All shorts closed same day or next morning to catch gaps, no holding
NO FAZ, TZA, DRV, or any of the scams
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Post by Rich on Jan 29, 2011 19:50:26 GMT -5
That's very disciplined Cos. i can't bloody do it! (English accent)  |
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Post by Rich on Jan 29, 2011 19:54:23 GMT -5
but yes, we are topping no doubt. Witness the vix. The fun has just begun. Keep an eye on political events because the economic news seems to be full steam ahead.
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Post by Clinton SPX on Jan 29, 2011 19:59:20 GMT -5
I think the odds of 1300 are pretty good for the next 5 trading days.
I'll be the first BTFD
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Post by Rich on Jan 29, 2011 20:04:41 GMT -5
I think you'll be able to scalp both ways.
until the whooooooosh.
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Post by cosmic on Jan 29, 2011 20:08:57 GMT -5
Thinking strategically, if we dip again next week, how loaded up will the hedgies be on shorts? Enough so to ruin them again on a run to 1370?
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Post by Rich on Jan 29, 2011 20:11:51 GMT -5
It could be we don't see high 1300's until late spring, early summer....after the correction. I don't see a near term push much higher than where we are now.
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Post by Rich on Jan 29, 2011 20:14:13 GMT -5
and...
nobody's shorting with impunity yet.
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Post by brosin on Jan 29, 2011 20:18:53 GMT -5
Preface by saying I voted Yes, deep (>5%) - I'm sure this stuns everyone ;D But yeah I've said that I think SPX 1150/60 is on the table and that I would strongly expect 1150 and/or 1130 to hold as the line in the sand for the market. Strategy: I was glancing back through my wrap posts to kind of gather how I had been playing it (I track them here if anyone is interested) It looks like I was fully long biased since 9/7/10 inception through 11/4/10 & 11/5/10 when I would go to neutral (11/4) and then bear biased (11/5) through 11/16 (alot of it very bearish by looks of it) when I went full bull again. I would be long biased again until 12/7/10, and since then have been varying levels of short biased until 1/24/10 when I would become 100% short allocated. My plan is to STFR until 1130/1150, which I do not really anticipate taking long. It will happen so fast that no one will want to be long again, forgetting about all the easy money and what is happening (massive inflation) over the multiple year outlook. |
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Post by Rich on Jan 29, 2011 20:20:05 GMT -5
1220-1200
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rebel
Broker/Dealer
Tried & True
Posts: 434
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Post by rebel on Jan 29, 2011 21:30:42 GMT -5
i think 1230 to 1243 will hold around 50 fib from this last leg up.....need to crack 1271 first big old bears LOL  |
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Post by jack on Jan 30, 2011 0:33:25 GMT -5
and... nobody's shorting with impunity yet. Rich, You know that you may be the one and only General Contractor who knows that word, right? EXALT! FAStpoia's such a richer place w/ folks like you - thanks. lol!!! ;D |
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Post by Rich on Jan 30, 2011 3:54:02 GMT -5
That's from hanging around you guys, Jack.  |
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Post by kbk3ck on Jan 30, 2011 7:15:31 GMT -5
Hey Bros u wrote "My plan is to STFR until 1130/1150". I dont know what STFR is but I am coming up with several good meanings. Sell The Fucking Rip? Short This Fucking Run? Save The Fucking Rhinos? What ever it is Im probably at least 1/2 way on board with u. Im probly leaning more towards Rebel's call. But I like Rich's big words too. Not sure what they mean but I like'em. |
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Post by timber on Jan 30, 2011 10:31:30 GMT -5
my strategy stays the same ...add to my scam shorts on the way down
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Post by sneaker09 on Jan 30, 2011 10:50:08 GMT -5
STFR I assume we have a new one short the f'ng rip |
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Post by cosmic on Jan 30, 2011 11:24:57 GMT -5
my strategy stays the same ...add to my scam shorts on the way down If it's an impulse sort of thing, Fredo, and it goes down to where MP has calculated, I could see FAZ 11-13 range, but most likely not any higher. |
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Post by brosin on Jan 30, 2011 11:42:46 GMT -5
Hey Bros u wrote "My plan is to STFR until 1130/1150". I dont know what STFR is but I am coming up with several good meanings. Sell The Fucking Rip? Short This Fucking Run? Save The Fucking Rhinos? What ever it is Im probably at least 1/2 way on board with u. Im probly leaning more towards Rebel's call. But I like Rich's big words too. Not sure what they mean but I like'em. Yep Joe you guessed it the first time - short the f'in rips. But I am just going by what I was told in the memo after all ;D you guys didn't get the memo this morning? it read: boyz: blue horseshoe loves fear. turn off BTFD. turn on STFR signed, the bernank ;D ;D ;D |
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Post by kbk3ck on Jan 30, 2011 11:46:09 GMT -5
Im love'n that Bros. LOL!!
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Post by brosin on Jan 30, 2011 12:01:45 GMT -5
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Post by cosmic on Jan 30, 2011 16:07:22 GMT -5
VXX up only 8.xx% and another .87% after hours. That thing is cursed.
There must be something wrong with Yahoo's quote system, if you look for example at the Jun 2011 VXX chain, there's little to no movement whatsoever even for ITM options. I don't get it.
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