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Post by merrillstanley on Feb 23, 2010 11:35:18 GMT -5
thx for the heads up dog, on the two threads
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Post by ukarlewitz on Feb 23, 2010 11:36:04 GMT -5
Carl update:
Here is an hourly chart showing 24 hour trading in the e-minis. The market broke sharply on the consumer confidence news this morning. But so far it is holding just a shade above the lower bullish trendline and above the last low on the way to the high (red dash line). The drop from the 1112.75 high so far has also been just a little smaller than the last two substantial reactions in the up trend (purple rectangles).
I think the drop from 1112.75 is nearly over and I doubt the market will spend much if any time trading below 1092. Even if I am wrong about this I still would be looking for a higher low near support at 1076 (solid green horizontal line). This is not only the level of the top of the initial part of the rally but is also the midpoint of the entire move from 1040 to 1112.
Once this reaction is over I will be looking for a move to 1130 and eventually to 1200.
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Post by cosmic on Feb 23, 2010 11:37:18 GMT -5
Ukarl, love the poll at the beginning. Good stuff as always in the PP thread! ;D ;D
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Post by elle on Feb 23, 2010 11:41:39 GMT -5
Uka, stopped out of DDSS? What do I do? Tempted to use the money for a scalp on something else today and then buy it back for Thursday
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Post by ukarlewitz on Feb 23, 2010 11:49:41 GMT -5
DDSS - I saw that I was down $22. Then realized that it was 22%. It's a falling knife. I'll let you know if IT buys more. I think Gareth has a stop at 1.30.
Not seeing the makings of a turnaround here in the spy today; breadth stuck at 5:1 neg and there is that nasty bear flag forming. Holding my shorties.
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Post by elle on Feb 23, 2010 11:56:27 GMT -5
have a nice expanding triangle now on SRS, so I'm just gonna sit here and play it back and forth as long as it lasts
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Post by cashfilly on Feb 23, 2010 12:00:40 GMT -5
Staying rangebound due to the dollar (UUP) xlf 200 day is 14.46...would like to see that but Kryptos's entry holding good for scalping during this boring phase GLTA Congrats on the VXX!
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Post by crumbdon on Feb 23, 2010 12:01:04 GMT -5
UK- Thanks for the karma earlier- it lit up my shorts bright green (OK, maybe consumer confidence helped a little too). 110 fighting like Rocky Balboa here. My money is still on Apollo by EOD, though. Will be interesting to see how this is digested next few days, especially in light of market internals you mentioned. I was never completely comfortable with the low of the recent correction. Seemed somewhat incomplete. Not ready to predict it, but won’t be surprised if we need one more trip to SPX low10xx’s before the palate is cleansed, and the air clear above. If so, I’ll be waiting with open arms-and wallet.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Feb 23, 2010 12:02:57 GMT -5
Hey Cash. When you look at the symmetry of today's pattern, seems like it would need to fall to 109 to complete, after this consolidation ends. Thoughts?
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Post by ukarlewitz on Feb 23, 2010 12:12:16 GMT -5
Oh no, Spy and the Qs are now below the omni again.
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Post by cashfilly on Feb 23, 2010 12:15:41 GMT -5
I see a possible descending "w" in FAS with a close near the open....thinking 14.46 is the bottom....Fins are leading today...and goldman is holding this up nicely...Reits are hanging in as well....That having been said, I'm just not sure about that much of a decline in SPY...It would be a pretty chart, but I don't think this market is ready for that just yet...I see the fins pulling the spy up to a mediocre close of 110.35 or even 110.55 range... UK I am so weak at predicting much more than the next 10 to 20 minutes...I see those great the big picture is not my strong suit. My this is embarassing....posting a forcast....kind of like going to a party in something very risque... What do you think?
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Post by elle on Feb 23, 2010 12:17:38 GMT -5
SPY 30 min 20 about to cross down 50
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Post by ukarlewitz on Feb 23, 2010 12:19:08 GMT -5
Hmm, Vix is up 6% but VXX just 2.3%. I'm getting ripped off. Still, the 60m looks suspiciously like a bull flag and it has regained the 20hma. I don't love the candle formation (high wicks).
UUP - 23.78 is the next R. We're on it now. Then 23.88. If I were Murphy I would say that either the correction is over or we have more downside ahead.
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Post by cashfilly on Feb 23, 2010 12:19:52 GMT -5
This doesn't hold here and all bets off---ms and jpm really dropping
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Post by cashfilly on Feb 23, 2010 12:22:10 GMT -5
JPM fell through its 200 like nothing...as did xlf....you may have pegged it UK! : ) I thought she was going down earlier but we held that low for a while...
What do you think UK...2 more ticks down?
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Post by elle on Feb 23, 2010 12:22:52 GMT -5
If I were Murphy I would say that either the correction is over or we have more downside ahead. Who dat? But yeah. That 20 cross can signal either a nadir or turn out the lights.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Feb 23, 2010 12:23:27 GMT -5
Now this thread has everything. Virtual drinks, a poll and Cash is talking about wearing something risque. I think this what you get with the karma points.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Feb 23, 2010 12:24:11 GMT -5
How do you do that little quote the message you're replying to thing?
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Post by kryptos2009 on Feb 23, 2010 12:26:30 GMT -5
hit "quote" in the upper right corner rahter than reply down on the right
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Post by ukarlewitz on Feb 23, 2010 12:26:34 GMT -5
AKS - 50dma coming up at 22.
Carl long 1095.
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Post by cashfilly on Feb 23, 2010 12:26:43 GMT -5
Oh, but the fun!
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Post by elle on Feb 23, 2010 12:28:50 GMT -5
SPG finally fell thru, SRS at triangle edge - I CAN"T sell, help me, time to SELL, SELL.
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Post by ukarlewitz on Feb 23, 2010 12:29:32 GMT -5
hit "quote" in the upper right corner rahter than reply down on the right Thank you kind sir. Breadth now zeroing in on neg 7:1 (vol). I can't get over that there are no big neg ticks. It's a controlled sell off. If we had a big neg tick, you could scalp a nice bounce.
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Post by cashfilly on Feb 23, 2010 12:30:17 GMT -5
1 minute to go and could this be a bottom on ms?
MSFT 28 for a bounce
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Post by elle on Feb 23, 2010 12:34:56 GMT -5
Uka, so if no big ticks, that means sell off is slow and steady?
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Post by elle on Feb 23, 2010 12:38:06 GMT -5
stayed SRS, reverse of SPY 20 moving up thru 50, hoping break down trend line here and want 5.70
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Post by elle on Feb 23, 2010 12:42:19 GMT -5
Jack, PCX double bottom and fork mid-line 15.95, 20 now headed down thru 50 tho
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Post by abdogman on Feb 23, 2010 12:47:16 GMT -5
EUR tanking
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Post by ukarlewitz on Feb 23, 2010 12:47:32 GMT -5
Uka, so if no big ticks, that means sell off is slow and steady? It looks like it. DX rising, A/D neg and tick in the -700 to +400 range. A 'classic' slow bleed. Aside from the big red candle, vol is normal, ie., retail. The all important last 60m will tell the tale. But we are losing 109.7 it seems. 109.0 would give the day symmetry (an IT thing).
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Post by merrillstanley on Feb 23, 2010 13:00:58 GMT -5
guess we're over here now, suprising accum in fas, distrib in faz....auction may have some say shortly
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