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Post by Cosmic on Dec 12, 2010 20:19:15 GMT -5
A bit of a changeup, just for giggles. Usually 10 on SPX is about 100 on the Dow.
Let me know if you want different parameters to use tomorrow. I can't change today's once the poll is done it's choices are locked in.
Bear!
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Post by Rich on Dec 12, 2010 20:23:40 GMT -5
I like it better.
so now I'll vote bear with ya
but only for one night
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Post by kbk3ck on Dec 12, 2010 20:24:14 GMT -5
BULL.
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Post by kbk3ck on Dec 12, 2010 20:25:17 GMT -5
Well, I think it will hit 1250 but close at 1247.46
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Post by cosmic on Dec 12, 2010 20:26:40 GMT -5
Geez kbk talk about a grievous range of guesses. More precision please and definitely show your work.
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Post by rex on Dec 12, 2010 20:27:48 GMT -5
Baby Bull. It'll continue to MELT up on low volume.
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Post by kbk3ck on Dec 12, 2010 20:29:28 GMT -5
Its just numbers bouncing around inside my head(and theres plenty of room to bounce). If I could just show it, it would just be static and perty colors.
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Post by cosmic on Dec 12, 2010 20:33:18 GMT -5
Purple stuff is cool.
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Post by timber on Dec 12, 2010 20:38:52 GMT -5
o said no choice but to see 1270 in short order  the prudent thing is just not short or put any more money in the long side  |
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Post by timber on Dec 12, 2010 20:51:52 GMT -5
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Post by kbk3ck on Dec 12, 2010 21:06:08 GMT -5
Im watching Cowboys not actually get killed right now Timber. Im assuming O said "up up and away"?
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Post by brosin on Dec 12, 2010 21:06:33 GMT -5
100 points in the dow is a much bigger move than the previous bull vote
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Post by deadmoney95 on Dec 12, 2010 21:32:38 GMT -5
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Post by Clinton SPX on Dec 12, 2010 22:18:27 GMT -5
Baby Bull
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Post by demanuel2001 on Dec 12, 2010 22:22:24 GMT -5
That's just bully!
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Post by puurfectten on Dec 12, 2010 23:08:41 GMT -5
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Post by Rothschild on Dec 12, 2010 23:37:27 GMT -5
Dont short a dull market; plenty of steroids from Unusually uncertain Bennie plus mutual fund monday. As such, its a bull for me  |
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Post by cosmic on Dec 12, 2010 23:38:59 GMT -5
Bros, you raise a good point and I wasn't paying attention. I guess it should be 5 then.
More importantly, is SPX 10 = Dow 100 enough consistently. I sure as hell didn't average it out, I took a guess based on my experience. I would also use 25 for the Nasdaq, in that 25 points on the Nas is 100 on the Dow. But perhaps it requires more research. For the purposes of today, if we decide it should be 5 or some other number, then that will also count for today's poll.
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Post by actuarynomore on Dec 13, 2010 9:43:02 GMT -5
Bros, you raise a good point and I wasn't paying attention. I guess it should be 5 then. More importantly, is SPX 10 = Dow 100 enough consistently. I sure as hell didn't average it out, I took a guess based on my experience. I would also use 25 for the Nasdaq, in that 25 points on the Nas is 100 on the Dow. But perhaps it requires more research. For the purposes of today, if we decide it should be 5 or some other number, then that will also count for today's poll. Seek and ye' shall find... Based on analysis from 12/31/2008 through Friday's close, there were 437 (out of 490) trading days where the DOW/SPX closed in the same direction (red or green) and the SPX change averaged 15 points for every 100 DJI points. That being said, since you are considering a change in how the poll is stated, why don't you define Bull/Bear/etc. by a % change because as we all know, a 100 point change in DOW today might be a bull but according to what Hambone's charts are predicting by June, 2011, it would certainly be more like a Baby Bull...FWIW |
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Post by cosmic on Dec 13, 2010 11:00:54 GMT -5
The poll is an overnight measure of bullish or bearish within our community. Bros has some polls projecting out a bit further to take the longer term read... but we can certainly add a longer term poll too - maybe a monthly or something like that.
I think it's easier on a daily basis to equate actual movement - 5 points, 100 points, etc. Just a question of which measuring stick do we use. Looking at the market right now, we are up almost 50 on the Dow and the SPX is up 5.xx. So I think the measure of 5-6 for a baby bull vs a bull is close.
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Post by brosin on Dec 13, 2010 11:04:44 GMT -5
The problem is that if we change the way we set up the choices, it will stick a fork in all the previous bull bear stat or we'd have to just start over.
(I had spent a few hours yesterday morning updating the old ones which is why I bring this up - still have a few more weeks to finish but I'm not going to do that until I hear what is going on with the new style)
For today I would've voted 0-50- baby bear in the old poll, whatever that would be classified as today
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Post by timber on Dec 13, 2010 11:11:15 GMT -5
why did he change......its like F and C in temperature readings
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